Projections show Republicans favored to keep majorities under new maps, but Democrats have a chance to flip the Assembly
Projections show Republicans favored to keep majorities under new maps, but Democrats have a chance to flip the Assembly
CNalysis makes projections on state legislative maps all over the country. Their new projection for Wisconsin's state legislature shows where key races will be on this whole new landscape.
The Recombobulation Area is a ten-time Milwaukee Press Club award-winning weekly opinion column and online publication written, edited and published by longtime Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer. Learn more about it here.
Wisconsin, as you may have heard, is going to have new maps this year for its state legislature. These maps, signed by Gov. Tony Evers on Monday, Feb. 19, are set to be active for the fall election cycle.
For the first time in more than 12 years, either party has a realistic chance to win the majority in the State Assembly. This was not the case under The Gerrymander, where Republicans had a better chance of winning a two-thirds supermajority than Democrats had of winning a simple majority. These new maps will bring about a much more competitive election cycle, and a whole new landscape for races across the state. This makes it especially interesting to look ahead at what’s to come in these extraordinarily important, once-in-a-generation state legislative elections.
During the last two fall election cycles, The Recombobulation Area has previewed every last race on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature.
That’s right, this is the only publication crazy enough to preview more than 115 races in 2020 and 2022. Our series from two years ago even earned us a Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism award for “Best Public Service Story or Series.”
Among the primary data points we used for that series has been the in-depth projections from CNalysis (
), which correctly predicted 98 of 99 Assembly races in Wisconsin in 2022. , the founder of CNalysis, also correctly predicted 100% of state legislative races last year in his home state of Virginia, and he was recently profiled by The Guardian.This year, CNalysis is again forecasting state legislative races around the country, and even though new maps in Wisconsin were signed less than two weeks ago, the initial projections are already now public on their brand new website. Projections include “Classic” and “Expanded” versions.
You can see CNalysis’ Wisconsin forecast and projections here.
For Wisconsin, those projections show Republicans as the favorites to hold the majority in both the Senate and Assembly. These initial projections give Republicans a 100% chance to hold the Senate, and a 70% to 75% chance to keep their majority in the Assembly.
Because state senators serve four-year terms, only half of the Senate is on the ballot every two years. This year, Republicans have an especially favorable map, as only senators in even-numbered districts will be up for election, and Republicans outnumber Democrats in odd-numbered districts 12 to 5. CNalysis does, however, project gains in several seats for Democrats in the upper chamber.
The real intrigue, though, lies in the Assembly. There, under previous maps, Republicans held more than 60 of the 99 seats every year since the Republican gerrymander was implemented in 2011. They currently hold 64 seats to the Democrats’ 35. This year’s election will likely see the most Democrats winning Assembly races since the 2000s, and there is a real path for them to flip the chamber. CNalysis’ “Classic” projections gives Democrats a 30% chance at a majority, and the “Expanded” forecast gives them a 25% chance.
“Right now, we have Republicans as slight favorites to win the Assembly, and they're certain to win the Senate,” said Nuttycombe. “The Assembly odds are about where our Pennsylvania House odds were for Republicans, though, and the chamber ended up flipping, so an upset wouldn't be surprising. The majority will run through towns like Sheboygan, Wausau, and Menomonie as well as the southern end of Green Bay.”
Republicans have kept a grip on the Assembly for nearly all of the last three decades, holding the majority for 28 of the last 30 years, and they start this election cycle as favorites again. Democrats might begin as underdogs, but they will have their best chance at majority control in the Assembly since 2010. In fact, if Democrats were to win all the races that CNalysis projects to be a “Toss Up,” along with those they are favored in, they would flip the Assembly. For the majority to come down to “Toss Up” districts is truly a sea change for the Wisconsin State Legislature.
In these projections, there are five districts characterized as a “Toss Up.” Those are the 26th, 61st, 88th, 89th, and 94th districts.
The 26th is in Sheboygan, which under previous maps was split, but now the entire city is located within the district. The 61st is in Milwaukee County, and includes Greenfield, Greendale and Hales Corners. The 88th is in Brown County, and includes Allouez, Bellevue and De Pere. The 89th is also in Brown County, and includes Ashwaubenon and parts of Green Bay. The 94th is located in La Crosse and Trempealeau counties, includes Onalaska, West Salem and Holmen, and is currently represented by Democrat Steve Doyle.
Other races that project to be close competitions include several “Tilt D” or “Lean D” districts (53rd, 21st, 51st, 91st, 40th), and “Tilt R” or Lean R” districts (85th, 30th, 92nd).
Overall, CNalysis projects 49 Republican seats, 45 Democratic seats, and five toss-ups. Here’s how it all breaks down for each individual category.
Solid D: 19
Very Likely D: 13
Likely D: 8
Lean D: 3
Tilt D: 2
Toss-Up: 5
Tilt R: 1
Lean R: 2
Likely R: 0
Very Likely R: 8
Solid R: 38
The net increase for Democrats in these projections would be 11 seats, before considering toss-ups.
In the Senate, because of how many Republicans will not be on the ballot this year, some solid Republican seats would have to flip in order for Democrats to control both chambers, which seems highly unlikely. Republicans currently enjoy a 22-10 supermajority, with one seat vacant (District 4, previously represented by Lena Taylor).
But CNalysis projects that Democrats will make key gains, putting the majority in play as soon as 2026. If Democrats were to win all districts forecasted to be a “Toss Up,” it would break down as an 18-15 Republican majority in the Senate.
There are three “Toss-Up” districts in these projections. They are the 8th, 14th, and 30th.
The 8th is located in Milwaukee’s northern suburbs, including much of southern Ozaukee County, and cities like Germantown, Menomonee Falls, Mequon, Cedarburg, Port Washington and Whitefish Bay (see our story from last week about a potential Democratic candidate, and a shift in candidate for Republicans). The 14th is located north of Madison, and includes Baraboo, Portage, Reedsburg, Richland Center and Wisconsin Dells. The 30th is located in Brown County, and includes Green Bay (both the 88th and 89th, “Toss-Up” districts in the Assembly, are located within this Senate district).
Overall, CNalysis projects 18 Republican seats, 12 Democratic seats, and three toss-ups. Here’s how it all breaks down for each individual category.
No Election D: 5
Solid D: 4
Very Likely D: 1
Likely D: 1
Lean D: 1
Tilt D: 0
Toss-Up: 3
Tilt R: 0
Lean R: 0
Likely R: 0
Very Likely R: 1
Solid R: 5
No Election R: 12
The net increase for Democrats in these projections would be four seats.
These are early projections, and could certainly see change based on which candidates ultimately run, what happens in the August primaries, and a whole lot more. But projections in previous years gave Republicans a better chance of gaining a two-thirds supermajority than Democrats had of winning a simple majority.
This is, indeed, a whole new landscape.
Note: The Recombobulation Area is planning a more comprehensive state legislative preview series for later this year, which will include projections from CNalysis, and much more. Subscribe to help support the work that goes into creating this series, and our work covering elections in the Wisconsin State Legislature.
Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He’s also written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 17 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
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I wonder what effect the new maps will have on the results of party primaries, and if that will matter for the general. The conventional wisdom is that competitive districts penalize candidates in the extremes. Will Republicans change their voting behavior in primaries enough to put forward less extreme candidates?
My oft-repeated thanks for this article and all your work. A question: does CNalysis have a respectable track record with its predictions?