An early look at the new election landscape under new maps in the Wisconsin State Legislature
An early look at the new election landscape under new maps in the Wisconsin State Legislature
With a particular focus on key swing areas like Green Bay and Brown County, La Crosse and Eau Claire, and the Milwaukee area suburbs.
The Recombobulation Area is a ten-time THIRTEEN-TIME Milwaukee Press Club award-winning weekly opinion column and online publication written, edited and published by longtime Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer. Learn more about it here.
Wisconsin’s state legislature is set to have an election unlike anything we’ve seen in quite some time. With new, fairer maps, it’s going to be a brand new landscape. The Gerrymander is no more, and with its demise comes fresh opportunity.
For the first time in more than a decade, Democrats have a real chance to win a majority in the State Assembly. In the State Senate, it’s likely for Republicans to lose seats, but because only half of the chamber will be up for re-election this year, flipping the chamber is a far more realistic goal for Democrats in the next election cycle, in 2026.
Early projections gave Democrats about a 30% chance of flipping the Assembly in 2024 with these new, fairer maps. But it’s going to be the candidates and campaigns that will determine what happens, not gerrymandered maps. That’s kind of the point, isn’t it?
So, where do things stand right now when it comes to these races?
WisPolitics has a terrific resource on its website tracking who is running and where in the Wisconsin State Legislature. You can see their work compiling what’s happening in the Assembly here, and the Senate here. You can see which legislators are now in the same district, who is running, who is not seeking re-election, and so on. It’s really terrific.
And now that we’re past the April Spring Election, many campaign announcements have been coming in. So, let’s take a lap around Wisconsin to see how this landscape is shaping up.
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Green Bay and Brown County
The home of the Green Bay Packers is going to be in the spotlight this fall not only because of Jordan Love & Co., but as a part of the state that will certainly be in focus for the Nov. 5 election.
In CNalysis’ early forecasting, two Assembly districts and a Senate district project to be “toss-up” races. That, along with the open congressional seat following Mike Gallagher’s recent resignation, is going to make for an especially busy election season in northeastern Wisconsin.
For the State Senate, part of the intrigue happening here has to do with Republican incumbents. Three Republicans were drawn into the new 30th District — Andre Jacque (currently in the 1st), Rob Cowles (2nd), and Eric Wimberger (30th). And yet, none of the three are running in this district.
Jacque is not up for election this year in the Senate, and is running for Gallagher’s seat in Congress. Initially, it seemed as if Cowles and Wimberger would both be running in the new 2nd District, but it turns out just Wimberger is going to be running there, as Cowles — currently the legislature’s longest-serving member, first elected in 1982 — switched gears and is now planning to retire at the end of his term. So that leaves Wimberger running as the lone Republican candidate in a district different from the one he currently represents.
The partisan lean of those two districts are very different. The 2nd is a deep red district where more than 62% voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 election, and is a GOP+30 seat, based on a seat lean projection model from John D. Johnson of Marquette University*. The 30th is projected by CNalysis as one of three “toss-up” seats in the Senate, and is DEM+5.
In the 2nd, Wimberger will likely be running against Kelly Peterson, a former broadcast journalist who had been considering a run for Congress.
The 30th, then, strangely becomes an open seat. Candidates running include Allouez Village President Jim Rafter, a Republican, and Democrat Jamie Wall, a business consultant who helped form New North, a regional economic development organization.
In the Assembly, there are two districts in this area that also project to be especially close. CNalysis’ forecasting puts both the 88th and 89th districts as “toss-ups.”
The 88th will be an open seat. Republican State Rep. John Macco announced that he would not be seeking re-election. It’s a GOP+4 seat and is the one CNalysis projects to be the tipping point district in the Assembly. It’s a district won by both Gov. Tony Evers and Sen. Ron Johnson in the 2022 midterms. Republicans running include Phil Collins, a Navy veteran, and Ben Franklin, an Air Force veteran and business owner. Per WisPolitics, the Democratic candidate running is Christy Welch, the chair of the Democratic Party of Brown County.
The 89th, a GOP+2 seat, is currently represented by Republican Elijah Behnke, but he lives in what is now the 4th District, essentially making this an open seat (and Behnke announced he plans to move to the 6th District to challenge controversial State Rep. Peter Schmidt in the Republican primary). No Republican has announced as of yet in the 89th, and Brown County Assistant District Attorney Ryan Spaude, a Democrat, just announced his candidacy last week.
The 90th, which includes most of the city of Green Bay, will be an open seat after Kristina Shelton announced she won’t seek re-election. Democrat Amaad Rivera Wagner, the chief of staff for Green Bay Mayor Eric Genrich, is running in what is the bluest seat in the area.
This is going to be one of the most important parts of the state in the 2024 election. Donald Trump just made a visit here last month, so we know it’s going to be a closely contested area in the presidential election. But with the open congressional seat and toss-up districts in the Senate and Assembly, the road to victory in 2024 looks to go through Titletown.
Eau Claire and La Crosse
These two cities in the western part of the state can often be very swingy areas, or, if nothing else, closely competitive parts of the state. With rural parts of the state becoming more heavily Republican and mid-size cities and college towns becoming more Democratic, that puts both Eau Claire and La Crosse and their surrounding areas squarely in the mix as places where both parties will be competing for votes.
A few interesting races are taking shape, particularly in the Assembly. In the Eau Claire area, three districts will see significant competition — the 91st, 92nd, and 93rd districts. In the past, we’d see competitive areas like this gerrymandered to, for example, have one deep blue district and two red districts, insulating incumbents. Now, there’s going to be more competition.
The 91st will go from a deep blue (DEM+30) to lighter blue (DEM+10) in its partisan makeup, and incumbent Democrat Jodi Emerson is running for re-election. Republican State Rep. Karen Hurd was drawn into this district, but she’s moving to compete in the new 69th District, a deep red district. No Republican candidate has yet launched a challenge to Emerson.
Of the three Eau Claire area districts, the 92nd will be the most GOP-leaning. It’s currently represented by State Rep. Treig Pronschinske, a Republican who was drawn into the 29th District. State Rep. Clint Moses, a Republican who currently represents the 29th District, is drawn in here, and is running for this seat. Two Democratic candidates have announced for this district — Joe Plouff, a former legislator who served in the legislature in the late 90s and early 00s, and Caden Berg, a member of the Chippewa County Board.
The 93rd projects to be a distinct pick-up opportunity for Democrats. Incumbent Republican Warren Petryk is running* for re-election, but this district changes from one won by Donald Trump by a more than 15% margin to one with a DEM+12.5 lean. Democrat Christian Phelps, who works with the Wisconsin Public Education Network, announced a challenge.
(*Correction: Petryk is not running for re-election.)
In the La Crosse area, the 94th, 95th and 96th could all go blue.
The 94th was among the most competitive races in the Assembly in 2022, with Democrat Steve Doyle defeating Republican Ryan Huebsch by less than 1,000 votes. Doyle and Huebsch are both running again, setting up a rematch in this district, another won by both Evers and Ron Johnson.
The 95th is currently represented by incumbent Democrat Jill Billings, who is running for re-election. This seat actually becomes less Democratic-leaning than under previous maps, going from one Joe Biden won by a more than 25% margin to a DEM+11 seat. The Republican running here is Cedric Schnitzler, chair of the Monroe County Board.
With the new maps, the 96th might now be the most Democratic-leaning of the three La Crosse area seats at DEM+13. Republican incumbent Loren Oldenburg is running for re-election, and two Democrats have announced a challenge — Steve Campbell, an area business owner, and Tara Johnson, the former chair of the La Crosse County Board (who was briefly running in the Democratic primary for the 3rd Congressional District). Oldenburg being an incumbent will be a factor, but this is another real pick-up opportunity for Democrats.
The Milwaukee area suburbs
The metro area has seen a distinct shift to the left in recent years, and Democrats had begun to pick up a few Assembly seats in the 2018 and 2020 elections. But in 2021, Republicans pushed The Gerrymander even further for the 2022 election, specifically targeting seats in suburban Milwaukee, allowing them to pick up or hold certain seats. That begins to change now.
In the Senate, the race in the 8th District could prove to be one of the most interesting in the state. You may recall that there was a special election in this district in the 2023 Spring Election, one that was certainly helped by the Republican gerrymander. The Republican who won that race (just barely) was Dan Knodl, but it’ll be Duey Stroebel running here after he was drawn into the district (and Knodl plans to run for Assembly in the 24th District). The Democrat running here will be Jodi Habush Sinykin. The Recombobulation Area reported on her interest in running again after the new maps were passed (and that story includes more of a breakdown of the dynamics there), and she has since launched her campaign.
This is another district won by both Tony Evers and Ron Johnson, and a Duey Stroebel vs. Jodi Habush Sinykin matchup is a truly fascinating one. Stroebel is pretty far to the right, even by Wisconsin Republican legislator standards, and he’ll be campaigning in a left-shifting district, most of which he has not represented during his career in the legislature. Habush Sinykin overperformed expectations a year ago, and has a real chance to flip this “toss-up” district from red to blue. Stroebel campaigning in a blue city like Whitefish Bay will be a far cry from where he ran in his previous district, which stretched from Ozaukee County all the way to the eastern shores of Lake Winnebago.
But that’s really the only Senate seat up for grabs in the Milwaukee area this year, given which seats will be on the 2024 ballot. In the Assembly, there are a few more pickup opportunities for Democrats.
One is in the new 13th, which has changed quite a bit in recent years. It was in Republican control for years, and then now-Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez flipped the district in 2020, but the GOP gerrymander allowed them to flip it back in 2022, and now it changes again with new maps to be a DEM+13 seat. This will likely be a matchup of two incumbents, the current 13th District representative Tom Michalski, a Republican, and now-14th District representative Robyn Vining, a Democrat. Patti Granger also announced she is running in the Republican primary.
Another key race in the area involves a name familiar to longtime Recombobulation Area subscribers — LuAnn Bird. Bird ran in the 84th District in 2022, coming up just short in the bid to flip the seat. I wrote a feature story about her campaign — “Bird on a Wire” — a story that won a Milwaukee Press Club award for feature writing.
She’s running again, and she’ll be running in a rematch against now-State Rep. Bob Donovan.
Donovan has moved around a whole lot in recent years to run in several different races. He retired from the Milwaukee Common Council in 2020 after 20 years serving on the city’s south side, then moved to Greenfield, then ostensibly moved back to Milwaukee to run for mayor in the special election after Tom Barrett resigned, advanced in the primary but lost in a landslide to now-Mayor Cavalier Johnson, then “moved” back to Greenfield to run for State Assembly, where he won by a slim margin in 2022. Now, he’s drawn into the new 7th, a heavily Democratic district, and is once again on the move, now to run in the new 61st — and he made his campaign announcement at a bar called Fin 'n Feather, which is not located in the 61st District. Sure!
Another race to watch in the area will be in the 21st, currently represented by Republican Jessie Rodriguez. This district becomes a DEM+8 seat, but no candidate has yet announced, and Rodriguez has not yet said if she’s running for re-election. Rodriguez would be a strong incumbent, but this is another real pickup opportunity for Democrats.
More from around the state
Other interesting races around Wisconsin include…
The 14th Senate District
This district, which includes Baraboo, Portage, Richland Center and Wisconsin Dells, projects to be a toss-up district and a pick-up opportunity for Democrats. Republican incumbent Joan Ballweg is moving to remain in this district and run for re-election (she was drawn into the 13th), and Democrat Sarah Keyeski is running to flip the seat (and her announcement has drawn praise from our friends over at the
).
The 16th Senate District
This is a very blue district in Dane County and will essentially be an open seat, since incumbent Democrat Melissa Agard is running for Dane County Executive. Three Dane County Assembly representatives are all running for the seat — Jimmy Anderson, Samba Baldeh, and Melissa Ratcliff.
The 31st Assembly District
Tyler August is the Republican Majority Leader in the State Assembly, representing the 32nd Assembly District, but new maps drew him into the same district as fellow Republican Amanda Nedweski, currently of the 61st District. Now, August is moving to the 31st, a district where another Republican, Ellen Schutt, currently represents the district. August is seen as a potential successor to Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, who is expected to run for another term, but has not yet filed paperwork to do so (and could be facing a primary challenge, depending on how things shake out with the recall effort against him).
The 85th Assembly District
This district is in the mix among a group of seats that could determine the Assembly majority. Republican incumbent Patrick Snyder is moving to remain in the district, and Democrat Yee Leng Xiong, who currently serves on the Marathon County Board, is running to flip the seat — and become the state’s first Hmong state representative. He said in a recent piece at Madison 365 that “one of my friends described me as annoyingly moderate.” This is a GOP+5 district.
More announcements are sure to come. If you want to let us know, send us a press release to therecombobulationarea@gmail.com.
*From John D. Johnson: “The linear model uses the results of the 2022 races for governor, Senate, treasurer, and attorney to estimate 2022 state legislative results had they occurred in each new district. The model finds that, in 2022, Republican legislative candidates fared considerably better than the statewide GOP candidates.”
Any campaign announcements, press releases and news tips can be sent to therecombobulationarea@gmail.com.
Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He’s also written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 18 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
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I’d keep an eye on the 30th Assembly district as well (Hudson and River Falls). Republican-leaning, but winnable.