Sorting through the big picture of the year ahead, and analyzing why 2026 could be the year where Democrats win a trifecta for the first time in a long time.
surprised you've come down pessimistic on dem chances in the legislature. its currently maps just tilted a few points in republicans favor, and there will be a ton of energy against trump this fall.
Feels like someone shafer’s talking to is trying to temper expectations to help cushion the intentional assembly loss establishment dems are cooking up. I suspect they’ll throw key races because a trifecta would give dems a mandate to address affordability, which their donors do not want.
AD 21 is an example of a winnable district they threw in 2024 by backing marsteller, and are throwing again by pushing seawright out.
Establishment dems with donor dependency cannot be trusted.
Republican Assembly committee outraised* the Democratic committee 4-to-1 on the backs of big donations from Liz Uihlein and Diane Hendricks. Add that fundraising advantage plus incumbency (estimated amounts to a +4 in these types of races) and the Assembly is going to be an uphill climb for Democrats.
Ooof, that is bad news. Thanks. I do think big donations from a small number of people are always given outsize weight.
I'm not trying to say we don't need to fight. More that some people who pretend on "our team" don't act like they want to win. The ADCC has been caught spending time discouraging good, enthusiastic candidates to prop up centrists who have a bad strategy and don't do the work. Time they shoulda spent raising funds to reduce that 4 to 1 gap.
That's about appeasing donors, and rich donors of any political persuasion also financially benefit from the Republican status quo and from stagnant, divided government. Why should we trust them to act against their interests?
Ooof, that is bad news. Thanks. I do think big donations from a small number of people are always given outsize weight, though.
I'm not trying to say we don't need to fight. More that some people who pretend on "our team" don't fight like they want to win. The ADCC has been caught spending time discouraging good, enthusiastic candidates to prop up centrists who have a bad strategy and don't do the work. That's time they coulda spent raising funds to reduce that 4 to 1 gap.
They are about appeasing donors, and rich donors of any political persuasion also financially benefit from the Republican status quo and from stagnant, divided government. Why should we trust rich liberals to act against their interests?
surprised you've come down pessimistic on dem chances in the legislature. its currently maps just tilted a few points in republicans favor, and there will be a ton of energy against trump this fall.
Feels like someone shafer’s talking to is trying to temper expectations to help cushion the intentional assembly loss establishment dems are cooking up. I suspect they’ll throw key races because a trifecta would give dems a mandate to address affordability, which their donors do not want.
AD 21 is an example of a winnable district they threw in 2024 by backing marsteller, and are throwing again by pushing seawright out.
Establishment dems with donor dependency cannot be trusted.
Republican Assembly committee outraised* the Democratic committee 4-to-1 on the backs of big donations from Liz Uihlein and Diane Hendricks. Add that fundraising advantage plus incumbency (estimated amounts to a +4 in these types of races) and the Assembly is going to be an uphill climb for Democrats.
*https://x.com/WisPolitics/status/2014002391692026021?s=20
Ooof, that is bad news. Thanks. I do think big donations from a small number of people are always given outsize weight.
I'm not trying to say we don't need to fight. More that some people who pretend on "our team" don't act like they want to win. The ADCC has been caught spending time discouraging good, enthusiastic candidates to prop up centrists who have a bad strategy and don't do the work. Time they shoulda spent raising funds to reduce that 4 to 1 gap.
That's about appeasing donors, and rich donors of any political persuasion also financially benefit from the Republican status quo and from stagnant, divided government. Why should we trust them to act against their interests?
Ooof, that is bad news. Thanks. I do think big donations from a small number of people are always given outsize weight, though.
I'm not trying to say we don't need to fight. More that some people who pretend on "our team" don't fight like they want to win. The ADCC has been caught spending time discouraging good, enthusiastic candidates to prop up centrists who have a bad strategy and don't do the work. That's time they coulda spent raising funds to reduce that 4 to 1 gap.
They are about appeasing donors, and rich donors of any political persuasion also financially benefit from the Republican status quo and from stagnant, divided government. Why should we trust rich liberals to act against their interests?
LFG, Dems!