7 Takeaways from Wisconsin's 2024 Spring Election
The MPS referendum nailbiter, the "uninstructed" impact, anti-Trump votes, Milwaukee leadership on the rise, a warning sign in Wausau, and more.
The Recombobulation Area is a ten-time THIRTEEN-TIME Milwaukee Press Club award-winning weekly opinion column and online publication written, edited and published by longtime Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer. Learn more about it here.
Wisconsin’s Spring Election is now in the books. More than one million people voted across the state in races up and down the ballot, on everything from school boards to local government to the presidential primary.
There’s much to digest with these results, so let’s dig in. Here are our takeaways as we recombobulate on the Spring Election.
1. The MPS referendum passes, handing a huge L to Dale Kooyenga and the MMAC
One of the closest elections of the night was the referendum for Milwaukee Public Schools. The final margin of victory was just over 2% for the “yes” vote on raising property taxes to help fund the school district to the tune of $252 million.
The Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce (MMAC) got heavily involved in the opposition to this referendum, spending well into the hundreds of thousands of dollars, an effort led by its new president, former Republican state legislator Dale Kooyenga.
Perhaps this backfired. This effort may have given referendum supporters a rallying cry against the business lobby. Having a Brookfield Republican in Kooyenga be the face of this opposition effort seemed especially off base for a City of Milwaukee referendum, and enlisting the Scott Walker alums at Platform Communications to help sure doesn’t seem to have been effective.
The MMAC going all-in against this effort, while backing gargantuan levels of funding for highway widening and Brewers stadium maintenance, shows just how misguided this organization can often be in its priorities for the region. It’s long past time for the MMAC to take a good look in the mirror to reexamine if it’s really doing what’s best for the future of Milwaukee.
And while this is good news for Milwaukee and for MPS that this referendum passed, the conversations the community has had during this campaign, along with the close result, should send a message to the district that people want something more change-minded and less adhering to the status quo. But because so much of the criticism of MPS is of the bad-faith variety — like the “no plan” rhetoric from those opposing the referendum, despite the very real strategic plan adopted a year ago — legitimate criticism many have for the district can be harder to recognize. But it is there. People are not misguided to be expecting better. It has to be about more than just avoiding cuts. Now, hopefully, MPS will have the resources it needs to do better. Because it has to do better.
2. Statewide referendum questions predictably pass
I had a lot to say about the two confusing referendum questions on the ballot that would rewrite the Wisconsin Constitution, but at no point did I expect that these would fail. These both passed, as expected, and they will be in place quite soon.
Since 2000, nine of 10 amendments that went to referendum have passed, with the only one to fail being the one to abolish the state treasurer office in 2018 (Sarah Godlewski, the former State Treasurer and now-Secretary of State, led an opposition coalition against this referendum question). In most cases, the real lift is getting these on the ballot. Once they’re there, they tend to pass.
Because of the deceptive way these questions are worded, and the ramifications of a constitutional amendment is not made clear, once these questions are on the ballot, they are phrased in a way that essentially encourages a “yes” vote. And that’s exactly what we got on these questions.
It wasn’t exactly an overwhelming result, though. Question 1 passed 54.4% to 45.6%, and Question 2 passed 58.6% to 41.4%. This, after Republicans spent 3+ years throwing a fit about “Zuckerbucks” and advocating for this change, and the opposition never really materializing until the 11th hour. Let’s just hope the language from these referendum questions that will now be part of the state constitution will not create further problems for election administration in the state going forward (because that’s a real risk).
And certainly, now that there's a constitutional amendment banning "Zuckerbucks" in Wisconsin, the election deniers are now going to be completely satisfied with results and will not be insultingly questioning any outcomes they disagree with, right? Right?!?
LAST CALL to KICK ROCKS
This sale has been wildly successful — thank you, Mr. Congressman — so we’re keeping it up for another day. Subscribe for 30% off!
3. Will Wisconsin’s “Uninstructed” vote send a message to Biden on Gaza?
Voting “uninstructed” in this primary has emerged as a way to peacefully send a message of opposition to the president’s policy on the war in Gaza and his administrations’ support for Israel.
The “uninstructed” vote in the Democratic presidential primary in Wisconsin gained more than 48,000 votes, far exceeding the Listen to Wisconsin group’s goal of 20,000 votes.
This is indeed a significant number, and a testament to the organizing in the final stretch that went into this effort. Reporting from the Daily Cardinal student newspaper at UW-Madison showed that the “uninstructed” vote was far higher on campus than throughout Dane County, so this is certainly going to be an issue to watch with younger voters. It’ll also be something to watch in places like Milwaukee’s Riverwest neighborhood, where “uninstructed” did best in the city.
However, the statewide percentage is a bit lower than what I’d expected. In recent primary votes in Michigan and Minnesota, the equivalent “uncommitted” vote got 13% and 19%, respectively. In Wisconsin, “uninstructed” got just over 8%. The “uninstructed” vote was only in double-digits in four counties — Dane, Milwaukee, Vernon and Ashland. President Biden ended up with more than 88% of the vote in the state’s primary.
This might be better for Biden than what we saw in Michigan and Minnesota, but we know how close Wisconsin’s elections can be, with four of the last six being decided by less than 1%. The overall number might be lower here, but the impact might be greater on the final result. The president will need to take steps to shore up some support among those on the left opposing his administration’s policies in Gaza.
4. Trump faced more internal opposition votes in Wisconsin than Biden
The Democratic primary wasn’t the only place where “uninstructed” or other protest votes materialized. In the Republican presidential primary, Donald Trump got less than 80% of the vote in Wisconsin, with more than 100,000 people voting for someone other than the former president. Nikki Haley received more than 76,000 votes, with just under 13% of the total, and “uninstructed” got nearly 13,000 votes, just over 2%.
Haley did best in Dane, Milwaukee, Ozaukee and La Crosse counties, with 17% or more there, another sign that voters with higher levels of education continue to run away from Trump. Trump was only above 90% in one county, Menominee, which only had a total of 57 votes in the GOP primary. There are going to be real questions about Trump’s ability to consolidate the party in this election.
5. Republicans and their right-wing media allies continue to lie about Milwaukee’s votes
It’s become such a regular occurrence that many have become numb to it, but it continues to be absolutely ridiculous how Republicans in this state cry foul about Milwaukee in every election.
It is completely unacceptable. Why more voices in Milwaukee aren’t standing up to this foolishness is beyond me. You cannot pretend to care about this city and the people in it when you say nothing in the face of conspiratorial claims that our votes shouldn’t count or are somehow illegitimate. I wish the business community in Milwaukee cared as much about standing up to the people lying about the legitimacy or our votes as they do about cutting funding to public education.
At this point, too, the delays in reporting absentee ballot results are entirely a problem of Republicans’ own creation. They failed to address an early count in 2020, leading to claims of conspiracy on Election Night (claims that were amplified by Trump as recently as yesterday). And even though a bill allowing an early count passed with bipartisan support in the Republican-controlled State Assembly, Senate Republicans killed the bill, choosing instead to fan the flames of conspiracy instead of solving a problem.
This really has got to stop. Election workers in Milwaukee have withstood intense scrutiny over an election that has been endlessly proven to be free, fair and secure, and they deserve better than to repeatedly face false accusations from Republicans and right-wing media allies, and they deserve more support from a local community that has not done enough for them in the face of this.
Enough of this election denier nonsense. Move on already. And please, show some more support for the people who help make the democratic process work for us. That goes not just for thanking election workers at the polls, but for standing up against these insulting accusations whenever they’re encountered.
6. A wake-up call from Wausau
Mayor Katie Rosenberg came up just short in her re-election bid in Wausau, losing to Republican-backed Doug Diny. Losing the leadership of a dedicated public servant committed to making her community a better place is difficult enough, but as we look ahead to the state legislative races ahead in Wisconsin’s new electoral landscape under new, fairer maps, we need to recognize just how ugly these campaigns can be. Rosenberg did have support from the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, but perhaps it came too late and allowed for some ugly attacks to fill the space in the weeks leading up to the election.
But this is a signal for those thinking the path to a Democratic majority in the State Assembly is a clear one. Dark money clearly had an impact on this race, and we know Republicans and their right-wing allies will play dirty in these kinds of races. This type of campaign is bound to show up in district after district as Robin Vos protects his Assembly majority. This loss needs to be something Democrats learn from.
7. Things are looking up for leadership in Milwaukee
In a race that turned out to be not at all close, Evan Goyke has unseated Tearman Spencer in the race for Milwaukee City Attorney. The final result was 63.3% for Goyke to 36.2% for Spencer. The Recombobulation Area-endorsed candidate did quite well.
Also victorious were Mayor Cavalier Johnson and County Executive David Crowley, who each sailed through to re-election by wide margins.
Adding Goyke to this group of leaders for the next four years is going to be tremendous for Milwaukee. There’s been a welcome sea change in new leadership in the City and County, and things continue to look up for Wisconsin’s largest city.
I continue to be more optimistic about Milwaukee than ever.
Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He’s also written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 17 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @therecombobulationarea.
Already subscribe? Get a gift subscription for a friend!
Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!
Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
Sad to see Mayor Katie lose. Our household was receiving absolutely bonkers texts in the few weeks leading up to Election Day. Really wish anyone with a pulse would eradicate dark money campaigns, but we all know why THAT will never happen…
I think you’ve got the wrong link under “real risk.”