2022 Wisconsin State Legislature Election Preview: The State Assembly
We're previewing all 99 districts in the Wisconsin State Assembly. There are 10 key races that could determine whether or not Republicans gain a supermajority.
The Recombobulation Area is a six-time Milwaukee Press Club award-winning weekly opinion column and online publication written and published by veteran Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer. Learn more about it here.
This column is part of The Recombobulation Area’s 2022 Wisconsin State Legislature Election Preview. Read the introduction to the series here. Read the State Senate preview here.
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The Wisconsin State Legislature is seeing a record number of retirements at the end of this session. In the State Senate, seven of the 33 senators are not seeking re-election. In the Assembly, 23 of 99 representatives are retiring or seeking office elsewhere.
This includes many in leadership positions. Change is coming, and is inevitable, regardless of how the November election plays out.
In the Assembly, these retirements include many top leaders. Jim Steineke, the Republican Majority Leader, has already resigned. Gordon Hintz, the longtime Democratic Minority Leader, is not seeking re-election, and has already passed the leadership baton to Greta Neubauer.
Several representatives have run for higher office, including Democrat Sara Rodriguez (Lt. Gov.), Republican Amy Loudenbeck (Secretary of State), and Republican Timothy Ramthun (who lost a bid for governor). More are running for State Senate, including Democrats Mark Spreitzer and Dianne Hesselbein, and Republicans Jesse James and Rachel Cabral-Guevara. Others have run for local office, including Democrat Jonathan Brostoff (running unopposed for Milwaukee Common Council), and Republican Samantha Kerkman (who won the race for Kenosha County Executive).
There’s also several Republican committee chairs retiring, including Jeremy Thiesfeldt (Education), Joe Sanfelippo (Health), Ken Skowronski (Veterans and Military Affairs), and Gary Tauchen (Agriculture).
New voices are clearly going to be part of the state’s leadership next year. But changes to the overall balance of power, and the larger direction of the Assembly? That might not be happening.
Under newly adopted maps, Republicans now have a better chance of gaining a supermajority than Democrats have of winning a simple majority in the Wisconsin State Legislature.
In the Assembly, the Republican seat count has never dipped below 60 since the GOP introduced new maps in 2011, maps that many consider to be the most gerrymandered state legislative maps in the nation. In the new redistricting process, Assembly Speaker Robin Vos introduced his new maps without a single other person speaking in support during a nine-hour public hearing, and these maps push the boundaries even further to cement Republican control of the legislature.
In the State Senate, that means Republicans are favored to win a two-thirds supermajority. In the State Assembly, the math is a bit trickier. The 61-39 advantage Republicans currently have means that they would need to pick up five seats without losing any to reach the 66-seat threshold that would give them the power to override a veto.
Winning that many more seats would suggest a wave election for Republicans. While the GOP has an advantage going into the midterms this year, polls are not currently suggesting such an overwhelming outcome. It stands to reason that if a 2010-style wave election were to take place, though, that Republican Tim Michels would also win the close race for governor, rendering the larger veto conversation moot.
But we’ve seen before how some voters have supported Republicans down-ballot while not backing the candidates at the top of the ticket. Many Assembly candidates, particularly in swing districts, outperformed Donald Trump in 2020. It’s not out of the question to think the same could happen with Trumpy candidates like Michels and Ron Johnson at the top of the ticket this year.
And the maps in the Assembly create difficulties for Democrats, and this is shaping up to be a tough cycle, as well. Two of the seats where Democrats saw some of their narrowest victories in 2020 are seeing retirements – the 73rd (Nick Milroy) and 74th (Beth Meyers). Each of those districts, which border Lake Superior, have been trending Republican, and now there’s no incumbent advantage, either. Another closely contested seat, the 13th – which flipped for the Democrats in 2020 – has been gerrymandered into oblivion.
If Republicans hold all competitive districts and flip those three seats, they’re already at 64 – just two shy of a supermajority that could override Gov. Evers’ veto, if he wins re-election.
And that’s before considering the possibility that not all 99 members might be able to show up for a veto override vote, and Republican leadership is notorious for keeping Democrats in the dark on a schedule. There’s also the possibility that a Democrat or two could take a Manchin/Sinema route and side with Republicans on certain votes. Neubauer is new to leadership, and such margins would test her ability to keep Democrats unified.
As you’ll see as we get into the details, there are five seats held by Democrats where Republicans will have an real opportunity to win. If two of those five flip, Republicans will have a supermajority. CNalysis, which correctly projected 98 of 99 seats in the 2020 election, is giving Republicans a 43% chance at winning a supermajority in 2022.
A programming note before we look at each race. (That’s right, we’re looking at all 99 races here!). These previews use our own reporting, CNalysis projections, and a “seat lean” formula from John D. Johnson of Marquette University, which averages results from the 2016 presidential, 2018 gubernatorial and 2020 presidential election results.
We’ve broken the Assembly races down into several categories. They are:
The Competitive Seats (10)
THE ONE (1) GENUINE TOSS-UP
THE CLOSE RACES WITH DEMOCRATIC FAVORITES (4)
THE CLOSE RACES WITH REPUBLICAN FAVORITES (5)
The Open Seats (18)
THE RIDICULOUSLY GERRYMANDERED OPEN SEAT (1)
THE OPEN REPUBLICAN SEAT WITH A CANDIDATE FACING A WHOLE BUNCH OF CONTROVERSIES (1)
THE OPEN SEATS UNLIKELY TO FLIP PARTIES (12)
THE UNCONTESTED OPEN SEATS (4)
The Uncontested Seats (17)
THE UNCONTESTED INCUMBENTS (16)
THE ASSEMBLY SPEAKER FACING MULTIPLE WRITE-IN CHALLENGES (1)
The Safe Seats (54)
THE PROBABLY SAFE DEMOCRATS (2)
THE SAFE DEMOCRATS (15)
THE PROBABLY SAFE REPUBLICANS (2)
THE SAFE REPUBLICANS (35)
So without further adieu, LET’S RECOMBOBULATE.
THE COMPETITIVE SEATS
THE ONE (1) GENUINE TOSS-UP
94th: Steve Doyle vs. Ryan Huebsch
The La Crosse area projects to be one of the most competitive political regions in the state. There is an open seat in Congress in the most closely contested congressional district in Wisconsin, following the impending retirement of Democratic Rep. Ron Kind. And there are closely contested races in both the Assembly and Senate.
Doyle has served in the Assembly since 2011, after winning a special election. He’s been re-elected five times, with his closest contest coming in 2016, a 5% victory over Julian Bradley, who is now a member of the State Senate in the Milwaukee suburbs. Doyle also recently won re-election in April to the La Crosse County Board, where he’s served for nearly 30 years, including several years as County Board Chairman. His legislative history in the Assembly can be found here.
Heubsch is a former legislative aide to Scott Fitzgerald from his time as Senate Majority Leader, and to State Sen. Eric Wimberger of Green Bay. He’s also the son of former Assembly Speaker Mike Heubsch, who represented the 94th District from 1995 to 2011 and later served as Department of Administration secretary under Gov. Scott Walker. This would be the younger Huebsch’s first time serving in elected office.
Campaign websites:
District Lean: GOP+1.4
CNalysis projection: Toss Up
2020 result: Even
THE CLOSE RACES WITH DEMOCRATIC FAVORITES (4)
54th: Lori Palmeri vs. Donnie Herman
Gordon Hintz, the former Assembly Minority Leader, announced he would not be seeking re-election. He served since 2007, including nearly five years as Minority Leader. That leaves the seat open.
There’s a Democratic lean to this district, which is anchored by the city of Oshkosh. Lori Palmeri, current mayor of Oshkosh, is the favorite in the race. But this campaign projects to be among the closest of all 99 races. The Fox Valley is a swing region in Wisconsin, and Republicans are working with a midterm advantage this year.
Palmeri is in her second term as mayor. She was first elected to the Oshkosh Common Council in spring 2016. She also serves as the Commissioner for the East Central Regional Planning Commission and Chair of the Oshkosh Redevelopment Authority, and is involved with several other Oshkosh area organizations. She became the first woman and first Latina to serve as mayor of the city of Oshkosh when she won a close race in 2019.
Her Republican opponent is Donnie Herman, a business owner from Oshkosh who owns several bars, an auto repair business, a crane service, and Sunk Dive and Ice Service. He ran in 2020, losing to Hintz, 54.2% to 45.7%.
Campaign websites:
District Lean: Dem+8.8
CNalysis projection: Tilt D
2020 result: Biden+9
45th: Clinton Anderson vs. Jeff Klett
This is an open seat in the southern Wisconsin district anchored by the city of Beloit. The current representative, Democrat Mark Spreitzer, is running for State Senate in the 15th District and is the favorite to win that race.
The Democrat in the race is 28-year-old Clinton Anderson, who currently serves as the Beloit City Council President. He was first elected to the Beloit City Council in 2017 and is in his third term. He won the August partisan primary for this Assembly race, 61.7% to 38.3%, over Ben Dorscheid. He previously ran for Assembly in 2016, winning a competitive primary, but losing to incumbent Republican Amy Loudenbeck.
The Republican, Jeff Klett, is a past president of the Beloit School District Board of Education and the Beloit Economic Development Corporation, and has been active in organizations around Beloit, including the Boys and Girls Club and many others in sports.
Campaign websites:
District Lean: D+15.2
CNalysis projection: Lean D
2020 result: Biden+11
71st: Katrina Shankland vs. Scott Soik
This will be a rematch of the 2020 race where Shankland won 55.5% to 44.4% over Soik. But with central Wisconsin trending to the right, re-election isn’t a foregone conclusion.
Shankland has represented District 71 for nearly a decade, after defeating now-State Sen. Patrick Testin in the 2012 election. She served as assistant minority leader from 2015 to 2017 and on the Joint Finance Committee in the 2017 legislative session. She is part of a group of six legislators who are being supported by a PAC run by Sarah Godlewski, as she’s shifted her Senate campaign committee to continue to campaign against Ron Johnson and also back several women running in key state legislative races. She’s been honored by several organizations for her leadership in the legislature, recently including the Wisconsin Education Association Council and Wisconsin Primary Health Care Association during the current term. She was also recently selected by the National Caucus of Environmental Legislators to serve as the 2022 Wisconsin State Lead. Her legislative history can be found here.
Soik is in his second term serving on the Portage County Board, winning re-election in April. He is also a small business owner and a retired Marine. Soik won a competitive primary in August, defeating Robert Glisczinski 72% to 29%. He has also been a board supervisor in the Town of Linwood, served on the Linwood Plan Commission, and was on the St. Paul Lutheran School Board from 2011 to 2017.
Campaign websites:
District Lean: Dem+7.5
CNalysis projection: Lean D
2020 result: Biden+7
64th: Tip McGuire vs. Ed Hibsch
Kenosha County has become a key example of a place experiencing a rightward shift in Wisconsin. In 2016, the county was carried by Donald Trump by just 238 votes, the first time a Republican won the county since the 1970s, and in 2020, the former president won by an even greater margin. In the spring election, Republican Samatha Kerkman won the spring election for County Executive.
So, while McGuire is the favorite, this is a seat that was in the “Safe D” category in 2020, but is characterized as “Likely D” in 2022, considering the shift in the region.
This race is a rematch from 2020, where McGuire defeated Hibsch 56% to 44%.
McGuire is running for his third term in the Assembly. He was first elected in a special election in April 2019 after Peter Barca, who McGuire worked for as a legislative aide from 2009 to 2014, was nominated to be the Secretary of the Department of Revenue in Gov. Evers’ administration. The Kenosha AFL-CIO recently named McGuire as a “Labor Person of the Year” at its 2022 festival. His legislative history can be found here.
Hibsch is the owner of a ride service small business that operates in the Kenosha and Racine area, and was previously a statistical research analyst. He’s at-large member of the Republican Party of Kenosha County’s executive team. Along with his Assembly run in 2020, Hibsch also ran for Kenosha County Board in 2019, losing in the spring primary.
Campaign websites:
District Lean: Dem+11.6
CNalysis projection: Likely D
2020 result: Biden+9
THE CLOSE RACES WITH REPUBLICAN FAVORITES (5)
84th: Lu Ann Bird vs. Bob Donovan
Earlier this year, Bob Donovan was ostensibly a resident of the city of Milwaukee, running for mayor. Now, he’s a resident of Greenfield, running for State Assembly as a Republican. How convenient for him!
He ran such a phenomenally bad campaign for mayor – performing even worse than he did in his 2016 run, with just 28% of the vote – that Republicans jumped at the chance to have him be their candidate in the new 84th District, following the retirement of Republican Mike Kuglitsch. Donovan defeated David Karst and Laura Barker in a competitive August primary.
This district also changed significantly through redistricting, no longer including any parts of Waukesha County, making it more Democratic-leaning. By making this district more competitive, though, neighboring districts in the 13th, 15th and 82nd became far less competitive and more Republican-leaning. As we covered last fall, Republicans moved the goalposts in the areas trending left – the Milwaukee suburbs, mainly – securing their gerrymander for possibly the next decade.
This might prove to be the most competitive state legislative election in the Milwaukee area, and is certainly Democrats’ best chance to flip a seat in the suburbs this cycle.
Lu Ann Bird is the Democrat running in the race. She was the executive director for the League of Women Voters of Wisconsin, and served on school boards in Oshkosh and at the Whitnall School Board and has also worked with the Wisconsin Association of School Boards.
As part of her campaign, she’s found the support of Milwaukee musician Chris Porterfield, who has organized the “Bird Songs” concert series to boost her campaign. The first of these took place on Aug. 12, and a larger benefit concert is planned for Oct. 20 at The Cooperage. Bird is also one of the six candidates being supported by Sarah Godlewski’s new PAC.
Campaign websites:
District Lean: GOP+2.3
CNalysis projection: Lean R
2020 result: Biden+2
73rd: Laura Gapske vs. Angie Sapik
This is an open seat following the retirement of Democratic representative Nick Milroy, who was narrowly re-elected in 2020 by less than 200 votes after serving since 2009. Donald Trump won this district in 2020, and like many northern Wisconsin districts, it has trended to the right in recent years. Milroy’s decision not to seek re-election makes this district a top target for a blue-to-red seat flip.
Angie Sapik is the Republican running, and she won a competitive primary in August, defeating Scott Luostari 58% to 42%. This is her first time running for elected office, and said she “never opted to be politically active until COVID-19,” in an interview with the Superior Telegram. She works in sales at a marketing company in Superior.
Laura Gapske is a member of the Superior School District school board, first winning election in 2017. She is a small business owner of a legal firm working with child victims and families, and the director of programs at Men As Peacemakers. She’s also the Chair of the City of Superior Mayor’s Human Trafficking Task Force Commission.
Campaign websites:
District Lean: Dem+0.6
CNalysis projection: Likely R (FLIP)
2020 result: Trump+2
74th: John Adams vs. Chanz Green
Like the 73rd, this is another open seat in a right-trending district along Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin where a Democratic representative is retiring. This district also had a slight-but-important shift in redistricting, going from a Dem+0.2 lean to a Rep+1.7 lean, according to John D. Johnson’s numbers (see above).
Beth Meyers has represented the district since 2015, winning a close race in 2020 by about 1,000 votes. The Democrat running to keep the seat blue is John Adams, a former journalist and current farmer working with Bayfield Foods. He was on the board for the Town of Washburn, winning election in 2019. He also started a chapter of the Wisconsin Farmers Union in Ashland and Bayfield counties.
Chanz Green won a competitive primary in August, defeating John Schey 67% to 33%. Green worked as the utilities manager for the city of Ashland and has served as a volunteer firefighter. He also recently became the owner of a bar and an event rental company. This is his first time running for elected office.
The two candidates debated for Wisconsin Public Radio’s “Simply Superior,” and you can listen to that debate here.
Campaign websites:
District Lean: GOP+1.7
CNalysis projection: Likely R (FLIP)
2020 result: Trump+4
33rd: Don Vruwink vs. Scott Johnson
Part of redistricting is accounting for population change, and the fastest growing part of the state of Wisconsin is Dane County. And while Republicans somehow managed to not add any new districts to the Madison area that’s seeing the fastest growth (HMM…), they carved out a new 33rd District, shifting it west.
That meant current representative Cody Horlacher of Mukwonago would no longer be living in the 33rd, and he announced in April that he’ll be resigning to run for Waukesha County Circuit Court.
This also means that state Rep. Don Vruwink’s hometown of Milton is no longer in the 43rd District, the district he currently represents, and is now part of the 33rd. So he’ll be running for re-election in a different district than the one he is now serving.
So, with these changes, the 33rd District is no longer the deep-red conservative district that it was in 2020, but it still leans right by about 4%, making Vruwink the underdog in this very confusing race.
Vruwink has served in the Assembly since 2017, winning re-election by double-digit victories in 2018 and 2020. Vruwink spent 42 years as a public school teacher, teaching history at Milton High School since 1979. He also served on the Milton City Council from 2011 to 2015 and was awarded the Lifetime Achievement Award by the Milton Area Chamber of Commerce in 2011. His legislative history in the Assembly can be found here.
Johnson won a very competitive primary in August, defeating the state GOP-backed Dale Opperman, the mayor of Jefferson, by just over 200 votes. Johnson has criticized his party for its response to elections, saying “I do not understand the lack of statesmanship by our current legislators’ unwillingness to accept the outcome of an election” in a pre-primary interview with the Wisconsin State Journal. He considers himself to be a “center-leaning Republican.” Johnson is a farmer and farm consultant, and he served on the Fort Atkinson School Board for 15 years, including as board president. He previously ran against Horlacher in 2014, losing in the primary.
Vruwink and Johnson will debate on Oct. 6 at the Dwight Foster Public Library in Fort Atkinson.
Campaign websites:
Johnson (n/a)
District Lean: GOP+3.7
CNalysis projection: Likely R
2020 result: Trump+4
51st: Leah Spicer vs. Todd Novak
It seems like every campaign cycle, Democrats think this is the year they defeat Todd Novak in this southwestern Wisconsin swing district. And every time, Novak winds up winning a narrow victory.
In 2020, he defeated Kriss Marion by about 1,200 votes (roughly 4%), which was actually his largest margin to date. He won in 2018 by just 332 votes, in 2016 by 723 votes, and in 2014 by just 64 (!) votes. Before winning in 2014, Novak was elected the mayor of Dodgeville, a job he still holds. He is also the first openly gay Republican elected to the Wisconsin State Legislature. Novak was the chair of the Speaker’s Task Force on Water Quality in 2019-2020 and is currently the chair of the Assembly’s Committee on Local Government. His legislative history in the Assembly can be found here.
Running against him is Democrat Leah Spicer. She owns a restaurant in Spring Green, and serves as the Clerk of the Town of Clyde. She is one of eight candidates being supported by State Rep. Francesca Hong, in her “8 for 8” fundraiser, supporting Democratic candidates in key swing races.
Campaign websites:
District Lean: GOP+2.2
CNalysis projection: Very Likely R
2020 result: Trump+1
THE OPEN SEATS
THE RIDICULOUSLY GERRYMANDERED OPEN SEAT (1)
13th: Sarah Harrison vs. Tom Michalski
One of the most egregious examples of gerrymandering in these new maps is the 13th Assembly District. In 2020, Democrat Sara Rodriguez flipped this seat, defeating incumbent Republican Rob Hutton in one of the very few red-to-blue flips that happened under the previous maps. Robin Vos and Republican leadership drastically moved the goalposts for this seat, shifting it from a Dem+0.4 lean to a Republican+15.9 lean. Only two other districts saw as much of a change as this one. For maps that promised to be drawn with “least change,” this district – one of the most competitive in the state – saw a whole lot of change. And right in the part of the state where Democrats have been improving. What a funny coincidence!
Harrison works in the logistics field and has been a nonprofit volunteer on a variety of issues. She also ran for Waukesha School Board earlier this year, coming in fourth out of six candidates (the top three won three-year terms on the board).
Michalski won a very competitive primary to become the Republican candidate in this race, defeating Erik Ngutse by just 1.4%. Michalski is a volunteer firefighter and a member of the Waukesha County Technical College Board. He also serves on the Waukesha County Board and the Elm Grove Board of Trustees.
Replacing: Sara Rodriguez (Running for Lieutenant Governor)
Campaign website:
District Lean: GOP+16
CNalysis projection: Solid R (FLIP)
2020 result: Trump+6
THE OPEN SEAT WITH A CANDIDATE FACING A WHOLE BUNCH OF CONTROVERSIES (1)
6th: William Switalla vs. Peter Schmidt
Replacing: Gary Tauchen
Peter Schmidt is in some trouble. He was charged with multiple misdemeanors after going to an employee’s house and choking them. In 2019, according to WBAY, he held down the victim “by the throat ‘to where the bed sinks’” and was yelling at the man in the victim’s first language of Spanish about “respecting the boss.” He was later sentenced to two years probation and ordered to participate in an anger management program.
But that’s not all. Schmidt says he was blackmailed by someone who had video of him performing oral sex on another man. He told WisPolitics, “I’m a strong conservative and Christian, but there was a brief moment I struggled with my sexuality.”
Since the primary, Schmidt has lost the support of his party in the race and has been censured and banned from the Shawano County GOP offices.
Schmidt narrowly won the August primary for one of the most heavily-Republican seats in the state, defeating five other candidates also vying for the open seat, ultimately winning the race by just 63 votes. His closest challenger, Dean Neubert, is now running a write-in campaign.
Switalla, the Democratic candidate, currently serves on the Shawano County Board. He also ran for this Assembly seat twice before, losing to Tauchen in 2016 and in the Democratic primary in 2018. He also had a deferred prosecution on a misdemeanor theft charge and was ordered to do 40 hours of community service in 2018.
Campaign website:
District Lean: GOP+35
CNalysis projection: Solid R
2020 result: Trump+38
THE OPEN SEATS UNLIKELY TO FLIP PARTIES (12)
5th: Joseph Van Deurzen vs. Joy Goeben (GOP+16)
This seat is open following the resignation of former Assembly Majority Leader Jim Steineke. Steineke already resigned his position in July, acknowledging that the Assembly would not being doing any work before the end of the term. The Wisconsin State Legislature is a full-time job, but alas.
Replacing: Jim Steineke
27th: Chet Gerlach (Independent) vs. Amy Binsfeld (GOP+15)
Replacing: Tyler Vorpagel
31st: Brienne Brown vs. Ellen Schutt (GOP+10.9)
Replacing: Amy Loudenbeck (Running for Secretary of State)
43rd: Jenna Jacobson vs. Marisa Voelkel (Dem+24.5)
This district changed significantly through redistricting. It’s currently represented by Democrat Don Vruwink, who is now running for re-election in the 33rd District where he resides (see: Competitive Seats, Close Races With Republican Favorites). This district was drawn to be a deep blue seat, shifting from a Dem+9.5 lean to Dem+24.5. Much of Dane County’s growth is being drawn into bluer and bluer districts instead of more competitive districts.
46th: Melissa Ratcliff vs. Andrew McKinney (Dem+34)
Replacing: Gary Hebl
52nd: Joe Lavrenz vs. Jerry O’Connor
Replacing: Jeremy Thiesfeldt
55th: Stefanie Holt vs. Nate Gustafson (GOP+9)
Replacing: Rachel Cabral-Guevara (Running for State Senate)
61st: Max Winkels vs. Amanda Nedweski (GOP+21)
Replacing: Samatha Kerkman (Elected to be Kenosha County Executive in April)
68th: Nate Otto vs. Karen Hurd
Replacing: Jesse James (Running for State Senate)
79th: Alex Joers vs. Victoria Fueger
Replacing: Dianne Hesselbein (Running for State Senate)
80th: Mike Bare vs. Jacob Luginbuhl
Replacing: Sondy Pope
83rd: Chaz Self (Independent) vs. Nik Rettinger (GOP+40)
Current representative of the 83rd, Chuck Wichgers, was drawn out of this district and into the 82nd Assembly District, where he’s running for re-election (see: The Safe Republicans).
UNCONTESTED OPEN SEATS (4)
As mentioned at the very beginning of this preview, there are many open seats in the state legislature this election cycle. While most of these will be decided in November, some were decided in the August primary. These four candidates will be headed to the State Assembly in 2023.
10th: Darrin Madison Jr. (Dem+68)
The current state representative for the district, David Bowen, opted against seeking re-election. He was making a run for lieutenant governor, but ended his campaign after the death of his mother.
This district became more suburban in redistricting, and Glendale Mayor Bryan Kennedy ran for the seat, but Darrin Madison won handily in the primary, 58% to 42%. Madison, who was endorsed by Bowen, is a democratic socialist who worked as an organizer with African-American Roundtable.
15th: Dave Maxey (GOP+19)
The 15th District is one where Republicans are benefiting greatly from redistricting. This district went from Republican+5.5 to Republican+19.2, one of the biggest shifts of any district in the state. This district previously included much of the city of West Allis, but lines were drawn to make this primarily a Waukesha County district.
Longtime state representative Joe Sanfelippo is retiring at the end of his term, making this an open seat. Republican Dave Maxey is going to win this election without facing any opposition at any level. This was not a competitive primary and there is no Democrat running for the 15th, which is unfortunate.
Maxey was an elected member of the New Berlin School District, serving from 2008 to 2017, and is currently a member of the New Berlin City Council. He was also the past president of the New Berlin Board of Education for six years. He is a Navy veteran and has worked in sales and marketing.
19th: Ryan Clancy (Dem+56)
Ryan Clancy also faced an uncontested primary in running for Assembly, so he will be headed to Madison next year. Clancy is a former public school teacher and the co-owner of Bounce Milwaukee and a member of the Milwaukee County Board, representing the Bay View and other south side neighborhoods. Like Madison Jr., he’s also a democratic socialist, meaning Milwaukee will be sending two democratic socialists to the State Assembly next year. Clancy is the first socialist to be elected to public office in Milwaukee since 1956.
This seat is open after current representative Jonathan Brostoff said he would not seek re-election to the Assembly, instead running for an open seat on the Milwaukee Common Council.
59th: Ty Bodden (GOP+44)
This seat is open after current representative Timothy Ramthun ran for governor. He was unsuccessful, gaining just 6% of the vote, running on a platform of decertifying the 2020 election (which is not a thing). Perhaps now he’ll join Mike Lindell, who backed Ramthun’s campaign, on the right-wing election conspiracy circuit.
Ty Bodden won a competitive primary in the district, defeating Vinny Egle 64% to 36%. He is the chairman of the Calumet County GOP. He previously ran for Assembly in a multi-candidate primary in 2018, losing to Ramthun by about 300 votes. Bodden also previously served on the Stockbridge Village Board. There is no Democrat running in this, the most pro-Trump district in the state.
(Note: Five of the competitive seats detailed in the above section are also open seats. There are 23 total open seats this election cycle.)
THE UNCONTESTED INCUMBENTS (16)
Democrats (7)
8th: Sylvia Velez-Ortiz (Dem+62)
11th: Dora Drake (Dem+77)
16th: Kalan Haywood (Dem+79)
18th: Evan Goyke (Dem+66)
Goyke spoke with us earlier this year about the gerrymandering happening around his district and how it relates to shifting lines in neighboring Wauwatosa, the key city to the Republican gerrymander. Read that column here.
48th: Samba Baldeh (Dem+65)
76th: Francesca Hong (Dem+73)
77th: Shelia Stubbs (Dem+75)
Republicans (9):
3rd: Ron Tusler (GOP+14)
25th: Paul Tittl (GOP+22)
38th: Barbara Dittrich (GOP+14)
39th: Mark Born (GOP+25)
41st: Alex Dallman (GOP+16)
53rd: Michael Schraa (GOP+24)
75th: Dave Armstrong (GOP+22)
86th: John Spiros (GOP+23.5)
97th: Scott Allen (GOP+23)
THE ASSEMBLY SPEAKER FACING MULTIPLE WRITE-IN CHALLENGES (1)
63rd: Robin Vos (GOP+19)
What an election cycle for Assembly Speaker Robin Vos. He narrowly won his primary in April against Trump-supported challenger Adam Steen by less than 300 votes. Steen is now running a write-in campaign. Also now running a write-in campaign is Democrat Joel Jacobsen, who has run twice before against Vos, unsuccessfully. There is no challenger actually on the ballot, though.
Vos is, of course, the longest-serving Assembly Speaker in state history, and has a favorability rating at just 15%, according to the latest survey of his favorability in the Marquette University Law School Poll. He’s been perhaps the single most damaging elected official in the state of Wisconsin for more than a decade, but he’s almost certain to win re-election for his tenth term under maps he himself introduced.
THE PROBABLY SAFE DEMOCRATS (2)
The districts representing parts of Green Bay (90th) and Appleton (57th) should be safe seats for Democrats. But either of these seats represent the far reaches of where Republicans could win if they happen to do especially well in these down-ballot races. Snodgrass and Shelton are very likely to win re-election, but that’s less certain in 2022 than in other years.
57th: Lee Snodgrass vs. Andrew Fox (Dem+12)
90th: Kristina Shelton vs. Micah Behnke (Dem+15)
THE SAFE DEMOCRATS (15)
7th: Daniel Riemer vs. Zachary Marshall (Dem+17)
9th: Marisabel Cabrera vs. Ryan Antczak (Dem+44)
12th: LaKeshia Myers vs. Greg Canady (Dem+55)
14th: Robyn Vining vs. Keva Turner (Dem+15)
17th: Supreme Moore Omokunde vs. Abie Eisenbach (Dem+67)
20th: Christine Sinicki vs. Scott Hermann (Dem+21)
23rd: Deb Andraca vs. Purnima Nath (Dem+18)
44th: Sue Conley vs. Spencer Zimmerman (Dem+20)
47th: Jimmy Anderson vs. Lamonte Newsom (Dem+55)
65th: Tod Ohnstad vs. Frank Petrick (Dem+22)
66th: Greta Neubauer vs. Carl Hutton (Libertarian) (Dem+37)
78th: Lisa Subeck vs. Matt Neuhaus (Dem+59)
81st: David Considine vs. Shellie Benish (Dem+16)
91st: Jodi Emerson vs. Josh Stanley (Dem+23)
95th: Jill Billings vs. Chris Woodard (Dem+28)
THE PROBABLY SAFE REPUBLICANS (2)
The 21st District in suburban Milwaukee County and the 85th District in the Wausau area are very likely to be won by Republicans, but these are both districts that Trump won by less than 5%, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility that a Democrat could win one of these districts. This is not likely the year for that, though, given the historical advantage Republicans have in a midterm year with a Democratic president.
21st: Nathan Jurowski vs. Jessie Rodriguez (GOP+5)
85th: Kristin Conway vs. Patrick Snyder (GOP+6)
THE SAFE REPUBLICANS (35)
1st: Roberta Thelen vs. Joel Kitchens (GOP+14)
2nd: Renee Gasch vs. Shae Sortwell (GOP+16)
Shae Sortwell was investigated for allegations of felony child abuse in 2013, the Green Bay Press Gazette reported last year. One of his children had bruises that concerned a relative so they contacted police, who recommended he be charged with a felony. The Brown County District Attorney never charged him. Sortwell quoted the Bible to police in defending striking his child with an object.
4th: Derek Teague vs. David Steffen (GOP+8)
22nd: Matt Brown vs. Janel Brandtjen (GOP+32)
Janel Brandtjen has been one of the most anti-democracy legislators in the state. Robin Vos appointed her to be chair of the Assembly’s elections committee after she said the 2020 election should be overturned. Her tenure in that role has gone predictably from there, filled with bogus hearings and support for the expensive, insulting Gableman “investigation” that found no evidence of widespread fraud.
Brandtjen had one of the safest Republican seats in the nation before redistricting, and the GOP maps now give her even more of an advantage, shifting about 7% from a GOP+25 lean to a GOP+32 lean in a district that somehow manages to include northeastern Waukesha County and southwestern Washington County.
24th: Bob Tatterson vs. Dan Knodl (GOP+24)
There was some expectation going into redistricting that this district would see some change, but the change that happened in the 24th is greater than any other in the state. It goes from a GOP+3 seat to a GOP+24 seat. This is, of course, happening in the Milwaukee suburbs, which has been trending left, and incumbent Republican Dan Knodl won one of the closest races in the Assembly in 2020, defeating Democrat Emily Siegrist by 1.9%. Now, he faces a much easier path to a re-election victory.
26th: Lisa Salgado vs. Terry Katsma (GOP+19)
28th: Patty Schachtner vs. Gae Magnafici (GOP+22)
29th: Danielle Johnson vs. Clint Moses (GOP+15)
30th: Sarah Yacoub vs. Shannon Zimmerman (GOP+12)
Zimmerman is another candidate who is benefiting greatly from Republican redistricting. This seat goes from a GOP+4.5 seat to a GOP+12 seat. Again, it’s a suburban district, this one on the Minnesota border closest to the Twin Cities.
32nd: Adam Jaramillo vs. Tyler August (GOP+20)
34th: Eileen Daniel vs. Rob Swearingen (GOP+20)
35th: Todd Frederick (Independent) vs. Calvin Callahan (GOP+27)
36th: Ben Murray vs. Jeffrey Mursau (GOP+31)
37th: Maureen McCarville vs. William Penterman (GOP+11)
40th: Henry Fries (Independent) vs. Kevin Peterson (GOP+30)
42nd: Theresa Valencia vs. Jon Plumer (GOP+15)
49th: Lynne Parrott vs. Travis Tranel (GOP+7)
50th: Michael Leuth vs. Tony Kurtz (GOP+15)
56th: Patrick Hayden vs. Dave Murphy (GOP+16)
58th: Mary Ann Rzeszutek vs. Rick Gundrum (GOP+39)
60th: Dan Larsen vs. Robert Brooks (GOP+30)
62nd: Anthony Hammes vs. Robert Wittke (GOP+18)
67th: Jason Bennett vs Rob Summerfield (GOP+16)
69th: Lisa Boero vs. Donna Rozar (GOP+22)
70th: Remy Gomez vs. Nancy Lynn VanderMeer (GOP+20)
72nd: Criste Greening vs. Scott Krug (GOP+20)
82nd: Deborah Davis vs. Chuck Wichgers (GOP+16)
Another suburban district, another gerrymandering opportunity seized by the GOP. This one went from GOP+8 as a strictly Milwaukee County district to GOP+16 by stretching the boundaries west from the county line into southeastern Waukesha County.
87th: Elizabeth Riley vs. James Edming (GOP+32)
88th: Hannah Beauchamp-Pope vs. John Macco (GOP+10)
Another gerrymander, though not as severe, going from GOP+5 to GOP+10. These maps really don’t like to have any single-digit margins between parties in any seat.
89th: Jane Benson vs. Elijah Behnke (GOP+28)
92nd: Maria Bamonti vs. Trieg Pronschinske (GOP+16)
93rd: Alison Page vs. Warren Petryk (GOP+13)
96th: Jayne Swiggum vs. Loren Oldenburg (GOP+8)
98th: Christina Barry vs. Adam Neylon (GOP+20)
99th: Alec Thomas Dahms vs. Cindi Duchow (GOP+39)
The bottom line here is this: Republicans are likely to pick up three seats — the 13th, 73rd and 74th. Presumably, one of the 94th, 54th, 45th, 71st and 64th will also go their way. Perhaps more. On the other side, Democrats could pick up one of the 84th, 33rd or 51st. The Donovan-Bird race appears to be especially crucial. That race could ultimately determine whether or not Republicans end up with a supermajority in the Assembly.
If you live in one of these districts, you have a tremendous opportunity to make a huge difference in statewide politics in Wisconsin, and help create a situation where representatives are more accountable to their voters. A supermajority would be simply disastrous for politics in this state, and would create a scenario where half of Wisconsinites would be ignored by the most powerful governing body in the state.
And even if you’re not in one of those competitive districts, your vote and your support matters, too. Creating long-lasting political change starts at the bottom of the ticket, not at the top. Every race is important.
Vote, get involved, make a difference.
ICYMI: Read the introduction to this series here and read our preview of the Wisconsin State Senate here.
Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. His work was recently featured in The New York Times. Before launching The Recombobulation Area in 2019, he worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s also written for The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He’s won 13 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
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