State Senate Democrats have a candidate running in every race, aim for $20 million in funding
State Senate Democrats have a candidate running in every race, aim for $20 million in funding
For the first time in more than 20 years, there's a Democrat running in every State Senate race. Already, $7 million has been put towards TV ads, with plans to spend upwards of $20 million.
The Recombobulation Area is a thirteen-time Milwaukee Press Club award-winning weekly opinion column and online publication written, edited and published by longtime Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer. Learn more about it here.
Wisconsin is set to have a state legislative election unlike anything we’ve seen in Wisconsin in more than a decade. Now out from under the thumb of an extreme partisan gerrymander that gave Republicans outsized majorities in both the Senate and Assembly, the promise of more competitive races is on a fast-approaching horizon.
Earlier this week at a press conference in Milwaukee, Dianne Hesselbein, a state senator from Middleton and the new Democratic minority leader, shared some news about campaigns in the State Senate.
“For the first time in over 20 years, Senate Democrats have a candidate running in every single district this November,” she said. “We are fired up and ready to go.”
That’s a big deal. For years, the extreme partisanship of the maps stifled competition in these legislative races, leaving many incumbents running uncontested. In the 2022 election cycle, there were five State Senate races where no Democrat was running. Now, Democrats will be competing everywhere.
Not only will they have a candidate in all 16 races on the ballot this year, there’s going to be a greater level of funding for Democrats in these races than what we’ve seen before.
At that same Milwaukee press conference, Ben Wikler, the chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, said their “commitment in this election cycle will be in the millions of dollars.”
“I would be stunned if this were not the most expensive state legislative election cycle in Wisconsin history,” he said.
The Associated Press reported more details on that funding this week. Wisconsin Democrats plan to spend $7 million in television ads in five key State Senate races.
That’s just part of the equation, said Andrew Whitley of the State Senate Democratic Committee, in an interview with The Recombobulation Area. Whitley said the level of funding for these races is set to be “massive and historic” compared to efforts in previous years.
“We’re hoping to raise in excess of $20 million to put us in a position to take the majority in 2026,” he said.
As it stands, Republicans have a two-thirds supermajority in the State Senate. The composition is currently 22 Republicans to 10 Democrats, with one vacancy (the 4th District, previously represented by now-Milwaukee Circuit Court Judge Lena Taylor).
In Wisconsin, state senators serve four-year terms. That means half of the chamber is up for re-election every two years. This year, senators in even-numbered districts will be on the ballot. Among those odd-numbered districts that are not up this year, Republicans have a 12-5 advantage. So, Democrats flipping the Senate in 2024 is extremely unlikely. But there is a realistic path to significantly shrink the Republican majority, from 22-11 to 18-15. Flipping several districts and putting the majority in play for 2026 is the goal under new maps — as is competing in every district and having a “professional” campaign in each race, said Whitley.
“When you have fair maps, you get competition,” he said. “Voters have a choice. They feel like their vote and the election isn’t pre-decided…The candidates that are stepping up are quality candidate. That speaks to the new life, the new era breathed into Wisconsin democracy with those new maps. We’re prepared to not just have that be a talking point. We want those campaigns to be run where they’re going after every vote on the table.”
While efforts will be underway for Democrats to compete in all sixteen Senate districts up this year, the AP report highlighted five for planned spending on TV ads.
Those races include (with John D. Johnson’s seat lean formula to show partisanship of each district)…
8th District (GOP+6)
Republican Duey Stroebel was drawn into this district, where he’ll face Democrat Jodi Habush Sinykin (Discussed more in depth in a recent piece here.)
14th District (DEM+6)
Republican Joan Ballweg is the current incumbent who is moving to remain in the district. She’ll be facing Democrat Sarah Keyeski, who was just featured on a recent podcast episode of The New York Times’ “The Run-Up.” (Recommended listening!)
18th District (DEM+11)
An open seat in the Fox Valley, and a key pickup opportunity for Democrats. There will be a competitive primary in this one on both sides, with Kristin Alfheim and Joseph Carman running as Democrats; Anthony Philips and Blong Yang as Republicans. Alfheim, an alderperson in Appleton who ran in the 19th District in 2022, is a top candidate to watch in this race. She could be the first Democratic state senator serving in the Fox Valley in more than a decade.
30th District (DEM+5)
After incumbent Eric Wimberger announced he’ll be moving to the more GOP-friendly 2nd District, this looks to pit Republican Jim Rafter against Democrat Jamie Wall (Discussed more in depth in a recent piece here.)
32nd District (DEM+8)
Incumbent Democrat Brad Pfaff won by a razor-thin margin in 2020, and looks to face Republican Stacey Klein in this key western Wisconsin district.
Stroebel and Ballweg, too, will be among targets for a just-announced campaign that was the subject of Monday’s press conference in Milwaukee.
Wikler said the state party would be launching a “new six figure investment in digital ads targeting seven Republican members of the Joint Finance Committee” related to inaction and obstruction in that powerful GOP-controlled committee. This “No More Games” campaign takes aim at “seats (that) are either battlegrounds or the seats of the chairs of the Joint Finance Committee,” Wikler said.
You can watch Wikler’s full remarks at the press event here (or on Twitter).
“In states that are actual functional democracies, it's a normal thing that when politicians do something, they get criticized for it, voters find out about it, and then they vote accordingly,” Wikler said in an interview with The Recombobulation Area. “In Wisconsin, the system has been totally broken for the last 13 years. And so Republicans have done totally inexcusable, unspeakable things confident in the knowledge that there would be zero consequences whatsoever. And this campaign, the “No More Games” campaign, is kind of a reminder, we hope, to them that now people are actually paying attention and can do something about it. It’s a breath of fresh air that it’s not just complaining. It actually can create change in the situation that we’re concerned about.”
Democrats have been holding events around the state to pressure Republicans members of the Joint Finance Committee on a range of issues.
“This committee has taken funds that have already, in some cases, been appropriated through the legislature or have come through in major lawsuits, and then it's just sitting on them refusing to allow dollars to flow to urgent priorities, like keeping university campuses open and cleaning up contaminated water and dealing with opioid addiction,” said Wikler. “This is basic bread and butter stuff. And in a world of political impunity, Republican lawmakers think that they can block these funds. But that world is now over. Now, you actually have to do the things that you're likely to do if you're gonna hold on to your job.”
State Rep. Kalan Haywood of Milwaukee, the Democratic Assistant Minority Leader, said at the press conference that with this campaign, “we’re going to tell people how (Republicans) are using their power to escape accountability.”
“In November, for the first time in a very, very long time, Wisconsinites will have a real choice. And the votes of the majority of Wisconsinites will determine the majority,” he said. “It’s been a long time coming.”
As for Democratic candidates for the Assembly, Haywood said, “We are shooting for all 99 seats.”
Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He’s also written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 18 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
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This is great news! Winning 4 of these 5, or even sweeping all 5, would set the table for a 2026 senate flip. Not easy, especially the 8th and 30th districts, but doable.