Reader Mailbag: The new legislature, Tony Evers' big decision for 2026, Milwaukee news, Giannis and the Bucks, and more.
In these discombobulating times, let's recombobulate together.
The Recombobulation Area is a thirteen-time Milwaukee Press Club award-winning weekly opinion column and online publication founded by longtime Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer. The Recombobulation Area is now part of Civic Media.
We’re back again, recombobulators. It’s time to hear from you, our loyal readers and listeners and followers and friends, and answer your questions.
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OK, let’s get to your questions. Let’s recombobulate.
@will__frieds on Twitter:
Which seats in the State Assembly and legislature were most competitive, and therefore could be an avenue for public pressure where the state is more responsive to people’s needs? I.e.- Republicans or Democrats who might split with their parties on certain issues? Issues possible?
Among the greatest benefits of new maps is that voters now, more than any time in the last 14 years, have the opportunity to hold their state legislators accountable by way of the ballot box. So, who will be the most likely recipients of that public pressure to the end of ballot box accountability?
Let’s start with the Assembly. While Republicans did well in this election, five seats was the difference between a Republican and Democratic majority. And as our friend John D. Johnson has identified, there are five districts won by Kamala Harris that were also won by an Assembly Republican.
Those will be the key Republicans to watch in the next session, but with the way Assembly Speaker Robin Vos has run things over the years, it’s unlikely you’ll get all too many detractors from the party line.
But those five incumbents to watch are: Jessie Rodriguez, Todd Novak, Dean Kaufert, Bob Donovan, and Benjamin Franklin.
Two of those soon-to-be representatives won races for open seats, in each case by less than 400 votes. Both are also in the Fox Valley and Green Bay area. Perhaps that’s a sign of where the Democratic Party should be focusing more attention!
Dean Kaufert, the state representative-elect in District 53 (Neenah/Menasha), and Benjamin Franklin, the state representative-elect in District 88 (eastern Green Bay and De Pere) will likely be the most vulnerable incumbents in two years. Kaufert came out of retirement to run in this race. He served in the Assembly from 1991 to 2015, and was the mayor of Neenah from 2014 to 2022. Franklin is a political newcomer.
In the Milwaukee area, Democratic politicians in the region should be putting more pressure on Donovan and Rodriguez to deliver for constituents. We know that the Republican-controlled state legislature has not been kind to the City and County. Now that these districts are entirely within Milwaukee County, this should be in greater focus. Local Democratic electeds in and around the Milwaukee area should be watching these two closely.
Novak, however, is perhaps the trickiest nut to crack. The numbers suggested he should not win this race, but he did again. As an openly gay Republican, he can sometimes appear more moderate, even just on that reality alone. He’s also in a part of the state that trended significantly Republican in the last election, and is showing no signs of reversing or slowing that trend. There’s nothing really there suggesting that he needs to do things all that differently to remain in office.
Beyond those five, there are others on the fringe right end of the political spectrum that might have their own issues with Vos. Can he still hold this coalition together? Probably, but it will be more challenging. He can’t stand to lose more than a handful of votes on certain issues. With less of a hard-line leader, there would likely be more of a chance to strike compromises on issues like Medicaid expansion or K-12 education funding or funding for the UW System.
In the Senate, however, there are three incumbent Republicans that will be on the ballot in 2026, and those three incumbent Republicans are going to be interesting to watch. They are: Howard Marklein (District 17, southwestern Wisconsin), Rob Hutton (District 5, western Milwaukee suburbs), and Van Wanggaard (District 21, southern Milwaukee and northern Racine counties). With the current 18 to 15 majority that Republicans will have in the Senate, flipping two of those seats and holding the rest would give Democrats a Senate majority. The 5th has been trending the most in Democrats’ direction, while the 17th has been going the other way (the 21st is more mixed), but these are all districts won by both Kamala Harris and Tammy Baldwin, and are places where Democrats should be competitive going forward.
Here’s one example that caught my attention. Hutton recently was present at an event in his district with Gov. Tony Evers.
Would he be doing this if he weren’t in a potentially vulnerable seat? Perhaps. But the activity of these three senators will be interesting to watch over the next two years. We’ll certainly be paying attention.
@JeffAsh26, on Twitter
Wisconsin Dems are patting themselves on the back, and I suppose rightly so, for state Legislature gains. But they still lost six of eight House races. That still seems like a problem. How much of a problem?
I’ll agree that Democrats only winning two congressional races of the state’s eight seats isn’t great. This year, however — considering how poorly Democrats did across the country — this isn’t exactly a catastrophe. Wisconsin’s 50-50 nature is not exactly reflected in its congressional map, but it seems a remedy to that issue is still a ways down the line.
However, Rebecca Cooke’s performance in the 3rd Congressional District was undeniably impressive. Running against an incumbent Republican in a red-wave year, she managed to post better numbers than both Kamala Harris and Tammy Baldwin in the district. Out-running Tammy Baldwin in western Wisconsin against an incumbent in a red-wave year is undeniably impressive. I’m fascinated to see what she does next.
I was less impressed by Peter Barca’s run in the 1st Congressional District against Republican Bryan Steil, who continues to win with larger and larger margins. Steil was targeted by national Democrats in 2024, but won by a wider margin than in 2022 (against Ann Roe, now the state representative-elect in Assembly District 44). Barca was part of the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” initiative this year, receiving some national funding throughout the race, but did worse than Roe in 2022. Not great. Trends in Wisconsin’s southernmost counties are a bit troubling for Democrats, and Steil has proven himself to be quite electorally successful.
In the 8th, Kristin Lyerly’s campaign may have come up short in the race for the open seat, but that is an incredibly tough district for a Democrat to run in. Wisconsin’s congressional map splits the Fox Valley — the 6th includes Oshkosh, the 8th includes Appleton — creating two deep-red districts. The work Lyerly did to connect many Democrats in the area, and help ensure a candidate was running in every Senate and Assembly seat in the district, was important and impactful.
Republicans Scott Fitzgerald (5th District), Glenn Grothman (6th District) and Tom Tiffany (7th District) each received more than 60% of the vote in their respective districts. Each seems out of reach for Democrats in the near future — 20+ point margins are tough to close.
Looking ahead to 2026, the 3rd will continue to be competitive, and perhaps the 1st and 8th would be closer in a year that doesn’t see a red wave. But the path for both seems murky right now.
@handsredlikeelmo.bsky.social
Tony Evers and 2026: Time to pass the torch? His rizz levels were at emergency low levels at the DNC and the Madison Harris rally and that was with the bar already being low.
@mikebradleymke.bsky.social
How soon are we going to see movement on the 2026 gubernatorial? Who are the frontrunners and do we know if Evers is going to try for a 3rd term?
While I was working on a story on Ben Wikler in recent weeks, Gov. Tony Evers’ name came up quite a bit. As I reported, Wikler does have some interest in running for statewide office at some point. There’s no U.S. Senate race until 2028, and that next statewide race is the 2026 gubernatorial election, where Evers has not yet said whether or not he’s running for a third term.
To be clear, there are other decisions likely to be far higher on Evers’ list of priorities right now. There’s a lot on deck for the year ahead — 2025 is a budget year, the state Supreme Court race looms large over state politics, and his administration has to be preparing for how to manage what happens in a second Trump term, at the state level.
But Evers’ decision is an important one, and many political futures hinge on whether Two-Term Tony wants to make a run for a third. Right now, it’s not clear what he’ll do.
History suggests that prospects for a Democratic victory in 2026 have improved with the election of Donald Trump this year. Typically, the party out of the White House performs better in the midterm following the election. It’s hard to know how these historical trends still apply in this era, but Evers was elected in the “blue wave” year of 2018, two years into Trump’s first term, after all.
Evers is a popular incumbent. Marquette pollster Charles Franklin has often mentioned during poll results releases that he’s the most popular politician in Wisconsin, simply by often being the only one polled with a net-positive rating. Incumbency matters, popularity matters, and he has a record to run on.
He’ll also be 75 years old in 2026. It wouldn’t be policy or favorability numbers or the overall public perception of Evers as a candidate that would be his primary disadvantage for 2026. It would be his age. And while it would be an easy one to make, the comparison to Joe Biden doesn’t quite work here — Biden is very old and has been uniquely unpopular, and Evers is nearly a decade younger and is quite popular — but Evers has had enough verbal miscues in spotlight moments during the campaign to make some people wonder. But there are many people who would be jazzed as hell to vote for Evers once again — and with good reason.
If he chooses not to run, though, it seems possible that we’ll be getting a big, weird primary. Now that Ben Wikler is officially running for DNC chair, perhaps he’s out of the mix for the short term. But Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley would likely run, as would Attorney General Josh Kaul. Other names to watch would include Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson, Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski, Lt. Governor Sara Rodriguez, and State Sen. Kelda Roys, just to name a few. There would probably be others outside of elected office who could get into the mix, too.
This is a big decision for Evers. I don’t know which way things will go. There’s been aspects of his tenure where I’ve disagreed with what he and his administration have done, but on the whole, he’s done a good job as governor, and he’s been an essential part of digging out of the wreckage of the Walker years and rebuilding the Democratic Party in Wisconsin. But he is not young, and that’s not changing anytime soon.
@mousebumples.bsky.social
I know about the SCOWIS race for 2025, but what other statewide races are on the ballot? I think Superintendent, maybe? Any insight into who may be running, or is it too soon to know?
Multiple Bluesky questions, how about that!
We know the race for Wisconsin Supreme Court and for Wisconsin Superintendent of Public Instruction will be on the Spring Election ballot. We’ll certainly be covering both here at The Recombobulation Area and at Civic Media. In fact, just this week my colleague Jimmie Kaska just wrote a story about the Spring Election, as Dec. 1 was the first date to begin circulating paperwork to run for local office in 2025.
If you’ve ever thought about running for office, now is the time!
Also, Bucks questions -
What are your thoughts on the resurgence the team has had over the past 10 or so games?
Given the age of the roster, should we be cheering for them to make the NBA Cup finals or not play that extra game?
Yes! Bucks questions!
The team is playing great, Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to be magnificent, and I am optimistic about this Bucks team. This is the soft part of their schedule, though, and things are going to get more difficult for them in the new year. But they are doing what needs to be done, righting the ship and putting themselves in position to compete for the long haul.
If the Bucks do reach the NBA Cup finals, I wouldn’t be worried about playing that extra game. I am still worried about whatever the hell is going on with Khris Middleton, but if he is able to come back healthy, look out. But that seems to be a very unclear possibility right now. Nevertheless, if Middleton can return healthy, the Bucks look especially formidable.
Because Giannis is playing some of the best basketball of his life (and should be in the mix for MVP), the chemistry between him and Damian Lillard is maybe (?!) starting to click, and the revamped bench is a big improvement from a year ago. There’s a lot to like about the Milwaukee Bucks right now. Whether they can ascend to a higher plane, though, seems to entirely depend on Khris Middleton’s health.
Erik Granum, @interurbans.bsky.social
I have my own thoughts on this, but curious about yours: what might be a good place for a progressive person to relocate to within the state (from W Wauk County)? Lack of tornados is a plus. Affordable real estate is a must. (Sorry Madison) Schools are non-issue.
Call me biased because I live here, but I think the answer is the grand old city of Milwaukee. Prices are going up in certain parts of town, but there’s a lot — particularly on the west side, where I live — that’s not yet going to completely break the bank. Neighborhoods like Washington Heights and Story Hill and Martin Drive and Enderis Park are on the rise. I’d highly recommend it.
And even within Milwaukee County, you could find some great options in Wauwatosa or West Allis. And I wouldn’t overlook Fox Valley cities like Appleton, either!
For the mailbag: Do the Republicans in the WI state legislature have an agenda for the next session? Do you know of any bills they're hoping to pass that Evers might actually sign?
Robin Vos signaled a few things in his recent interview on WISN’s UPFRONT. Much of it seemed like more of the same from the longtime Assembly Speaker — lots of talk about tax cuts and about not wanting to increase funding on really anything, despite the state’s $4 billion budget surplus. One specific thing that he got into with a tax cut proposal was targeting a cut to retirement income, and that seems like a reasonable place to start — much more so than previous tax cut proposals that would have been especially tilted to the most well-off Wisconsinites. Beyond that, there’s been little indication of what they’d do next, but we’ve seen Vos operate as Assembly Speaker for more than a decade now, so I’m not expecting too many surprises.
From the Senate side, I wonder if there’s going to be a renewed effort to legalize medical marijuana, since longtime advocate Mary Felzkowski was elected the new Senate President. Democrats have long supported this, and a Republican like Felzkowski in leadership could pave the way for some change on the matter.
And since Republicans no longer are operating with a Senate supermajority and a near-supermajority in the Assembly, the days of veto override threats are over.
Brian Zacharias, from the comments:
Two questions:
1. Are there any big items we already know to be on the lookout for in terms of Milwaukee gov/politics when the calendar turns to 2025?
2. What are your go to's for your Thanksgiving plate?
I don’t know how soon it’ll happen, but I’d have to think that a decision on 794 has to be happening soon. Shouldn’t be a hard decision — especially after the recent report showing how tearing down the spur could lead to more than $1 billion in development and help create 3,000 housing units over the next 30 years — but I don’t really have the confidence in state or city leaders to take this obvious, bold step. I’m expecting them to gravitate to the squishy middle — the worst of both worlds.
The biggest story for the city will probably be what’s next for MPS, as it searches for a new superintendent. It’s imperative that the district begins to head in a better direction.
And for Thanksgiving, I always go with the classics — turkey, mashed potatoes, stuffing, etc. My favorite underrated Thanksgiving side: Sweet potatoes. This year, I even made a casserole — but with pecans and brown sugar, not that marshmallow nonsense.
Kevin Alexander, comments:
You foresee any change in how tax dollars are returned to cities, or is the WI GOP going to double down and continue to sit on the surplus?
I think we’re seeing right now that it’s pretty clear that the shared revenue reform bill did not go nearly far enough to help local governments. Even a wealthy county like Waukesha is now making noise that it needs more revenue from the state. Its County Board just unanimously passed a resolution asking the state to “examine the lack of funding Waukesha County receives to pay for mandated services,” the Waukesha Freeman reported. Turns out it’s not just Milwaukee. Huh!
HUH!
Huh.
Anyways, no, I’m not optimistic this will change in the short term as long as Robin Vos is Assembly Speaker. But 2026 looms, and that will give Democrats a better chance to flip both the Senate and Assembly.
Jayden, comments
What’s your opinion of third party competitiveness in Wisconsin this year and going forward? Do you believe it would benefit third parties, like the Working Families Party, to build their candidates for ‘26 (possibly ‘28)?
If we’re looking at the competitiveness of third parties here in the 2020’s, I think that discussion has to start with what Democratic-aligned independent Dan Osborn just did in Nebraska. He got nearly 47% of the vote in a state where Kamala Harris got less than 40%. If there is some kind of labor-focused independent party that aligned with Democrats on most issues, I think that might actually be a pretty effective way to at least pressure some Republicans in deep-red districts. I’d like to see it tried at the state legislative level.
Rusty, comments
The Milwaukee metro area has the worst post-pandemic (2020 to present) job growth in the country (along with SF and Minneapolis), which seems under-discussed in all the talks of optimism, companies moving downtown and 1 Million milwuakeeans from local government officials. Is it irresponsible for the mayor and others to project optimism in a city with declining population, high crime and worst in the nation job growth?
I asked for the data on this, so I feel obligated to answer this one, but I think that number is misleading and lacks context. Unemployment in the Milwaukee metro area is down, and it’s good for city leaders to have bold goals. The city has its problems — we all know that — but we’re not far removed from addressing the City and County’s biggest existential problem by way of the shared revenue and local sales tax bill. The narrative about companies moving downtown is overblown (and always has been), but crime is declining (homicides in 2024 are likely to be down significantly from a year ago), and there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the city and its future. Don’t let the naysayers get you down.
@adventurous.contractors
Do you think that what Ben Wikler has done in Wisconsin can scale to the national level? Bonus question: if he gets the job, is there someone waiting in the wings to take over his work in Wisconsin?
Stay tuned to The Recombobulation Area and Civic Media for more coverage of that as it unfolds!
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Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. In 2024, he became the Political Editor of Civic Media. He’s also written for The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 18 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
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My wife and I are moving to Milwaukee in two weeks and are eager to learn about our new home, and the mailbag answers are helpful. Thanks for your great work!