Marquette Poll Breakdown: Democrats lead as the race hits the home stretch in critical Wisconsin
Plus: Where voters of color stand in the presidential election, the partisan divide on issues of immigration and abortion, and widespread disapproval of the Wisconsin State Legislature.
The Recombobulation Area is a thirteen-time Milwaukee Press Club award-winning weekly opinion column and online publication founded by longtime Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer. The Recombobulation Area is now part of Civic Media.
The Marquette University Law School Poll is the gold standard of measuring public opinion in Wisconsin, so here at The Recombobulation Area, we take a close look at each new poll. See all of our previous breakdowns here.
There’s just over one month to go before Election Day, and in the critical swing state of Wisconsin, the latest polling from the gold standard poll in the state is showing a Democratic advantage at the top of the ticket. It’s not an overwhelming one, but Kamala Harris held steady with a four-point lead over Donald Trump, and Tammy Baldwin’s lead expanded over Republican Eric Hovde.
As always, we’re digging into the details to see what’s under the hood in this poll. This is the second-to-last Marquette poll of the 2024 election cycle.
1. The state of the race, Harris vs. Trump
As poll director Charles Franklin presented the latest results, he mentioned how little had changed in the presidential race since Harris joined the ticket. The 52%-48% breakdown is identical from the previous poll.
Many demographics are unchanged from the previous poll, too. Men still back Trump by a 10-point margin, and women back Harris by just over 15 points. Those under 45 years old tend to back Harris. There hasn’t been much movement in any direction across the ideological spectrum nor in various regions of the state. Very little has changed significantly from poll to poll.
Part of that just shows how polarized and dug-in to their own side that many Wisconsin voters are at this stage of the race. But seeing some stability in certain metrics can be important in showing just how this race is shaping up.
One is Harris’ favorability, which went from a net minus-12 in August to a net minus-4 in September, and to a net minus-3 in October (Trump has been around a net minus-10 to 15 all year). Another such metric is with independent voters. With Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate, Trump led by significant margins with independent voters. That has changed with Harris, and now she’s starting to cement that lead.
In the latest poll, 62% of independent voters support Harris in the head-to-head matchup with Trump. That’s up slightly from 59% in last month’s poll. Independent voters may be a smaller group, but stability on this mark bodes well for the vice president’s campaign, and in a state where four of the last six presidential elections are decided by less than 1%, those independent voters can matter a great deal.
While this polling lead for Harris is indeed important at this stage of the race, it’s important to also recall that polls have underestimated Trump’s support in Wisconsin in prior elections. Marquette has been much better than most, but Franklin said the poll was “off by four points in 2020 and off by more than six points in 2016.” Compared to previous years, he added, there is a “smaller advantage for Harris in 2024 than Biden in 2020 or Clinton in 2016.” So, even if Harris is up four and polling well, Democrats should not feel like a comfortable victory is in their sights. This is Wisconsin, after all.
On the issues, Trump has maintained an edge on the economy, immigration and border security, and the Israel-Hamas war (where a large number of voters view candidates as the same, or say neither candidate is better). Harris has led on Medicare and Social Security, health care, abortion policy, and “ensuring fair elections.” The two have been closest on the issue of foreign relations.
The economy rates as the top issue in the race, with 37% of voters saying it’s the most important issue in this election. Trump has an eight-point edge on the issue overall, but that has narrowed since the summer. With Biden on the top of the ticket, Trump had a nearly 20-point advantage on the economy.
Marquette has also repeatedly polled how certain phrases describe each candidate. More than 60% of voters say Trump is “too old to be president” and “has behaved corruptly. Trump is ahead on having a “strong record of accomplishments,” while more voters say Harris “is intelligent” and “has the right temperament.” But again, few of these issues have changed in significant ways since Harris became the candidate.
We all know Wisconsin is going to be close. But the most significant change in this race seems to have already happened. Going from Biden to Harris certainly upended this race and changed the state of play in a myriad of ways, but since her entry to the race, little has changed. If she can maintain support of independents — and if the polls are indeed predictive — Harris can win in Wisconsin.
2. The state of the race, Baldwin vs. Hovde
There continues to be a favorite in the race for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin, and that would be Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin.
The September Marquette poll showed a tightening race, with Eric Hovde coming within four percentage points of Baldwin, but the Democrat widened her lead in the latest poll, up by 7%. Hovde still has not led in a single Marquette poll.
Baldwin continues to have a lead among independent voters, with nearly more than 60% backing the Democrat. Much has remained the same from poll-to-poll in a demographic breakdown, but Baldwin saw modest gains in this poll with young voters (ages 18-29) and in the Green Bay media market.
For Hovde, what’s been interesting to watch is his trend on favorability, and where voters break as they continue to get to know him. Outside of one especially poor poll for Hovde in early August, it’s been a fairly consistent trendline, with favorable and unfavorable numbers both climbing as the number of voters who don’t have an opinion of him continue to fall. He’s now been at a net minus-9 in consecutive polls.
What stands out as a real problem for Hovde is with independent voters. In the latest poll on favorability, he’s at net minus-38, with just 22% of independents with a favorable view of the Republican, to 60% unfavorable. In the September poll, there were still about a third of independent voters who did not yet have an opinion of him, a number that’s down to just 18% now. As more independent voters formed an opinion of him, his unfavorable numbers have climbed higher (up 15 points) than his favorables (up 3 points).
Baldwin, on the other hand, has a net favorability rating of +23 with independents.
The poll also asked about how certain phrases describe each Senate candidate.
Baldwin continues to poll quite well on these questions, especially the one on being “committed to serving the interests of Wisconsin.” That, as much as anything, seems like her hallmark as a senator — constituent services, and her strong connection with the state. This could be something her could lean into in the final month of the campaign. It’s important to remind voters that she’s a senator that’s working for Wisconsin and that most of the state recognizes this.
Overall, this is a good poll for Baldwin, but this race is far from over. Polling from others have shown a tighter race, a new Axios report says there are internal Democratic fears the race is getting close, and Mitch McConnell’s super PAC just put $17 million into the race to attack Baldwin. At the same time, news this week of an endorsement from the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation — the first for a statewide Democrat in Wisconsin in over 20 years — seems significant. We’ll see where things stand with one more poll to go, but if there are signs showing Tammy in trouble, they aren’t showing up in these particular poll results.
3. Where do voters of color stand in Wisconsin?
In the cross-tabs of the Marquette poll, each question includes a breakdown by race and ethnicity. However, in any one single poll, these results are not particularly useful. That’s because people of color do not make up a significant enough percentage of the state’s voters to create a large enough sample size in the Marquette poll. For example, in the latest, there are just 23 Black voters and 28 Hispanic voters polled.
So, in order to get any meaningful results, you have to group at least three polls together. Now that Kamala Harris has been the candidate for three polls now, we can begin to take a look at that information, even if the margin of error is still on the high side. Here’s what we found.
Here, we see a contest that’s fairly even among white voters. With Black voters, Harris has her largest advantage, and with Hispanic voters, she maintains a modest lead.
Here’s how a similar group of polls looked in 2020 (a poll that includes the Libertarian candidate).
There were signs in the 2020 election that some voters of color — Hispanic voters, in particular — were beginning to move more toward Republicans. We saw that in some of the data on the south side of Milwaukee, especially, four years ago. But some of those concerns for Democrats do seem a bit overstated. If Harris can do better than Biden with Hispanic voters and can continue to maintain strong support among Black voters, that could really help her statewide. Even if Wisconsin is not as diverse as some other swing states, Black (>6% of the state’s population) and Hispanic (>7%) voters make up a significant part of the electorate.
In a state where every last vote makes a difference, these constituencies are not to be overlooked.
4. There’s a tremendous partisan divide on issues of abortion policy and immigration and border security
While the economy ranks as the most important issue in the election for Wisconsin voters, two issues are tied at No. 2 — immigration and border security, and abortion policy, each at 15%. But the partisan divide on these issues couldn’t be more stark.
Here, we see that 31% of Democratic voters say abortion is the top issue in the election and 31% of Republican voters say immigration and border security is most important. And on the other end, only 3% of Republican voters say abortion policy is the top issue, and just 1% of Democratic voters say immigration and border security is most important.
It’s an interesting picture of a polarized electorate. The most dug-in partisans seem to have the strongest views on these two issues. Those who are “very conservative” rate immigration and border security as the No. 1 issue, and “very liberal” voters say abortion policy is most important. With independent voters, neither ranks especially high, and both are behind Medicare and Social Security.
On abortion rights, there is a fairly substantial gender gap, where 22% of all women rate it as the top issue, and just 7% of men say it’s the most important. Abortion rates as a higher priority issue among younger voters, where 30% say it’s the top issue, and only 2% of those in that 18-29 age group see immigration and border security as the top issue. And with the oldest group of voters at 60+, immigration and border rates almost as high as the economy, with 25% saying it’s the most important issue in this election.
While abortion policy shows up in more demographics as a higher priority issue, the salience of immigration and border security seems to be a bit more siloed among older, more conservative voters.
5. Voters do not approve of the Wisconsin State Legislature
With new maps for the Senate and Assembly, the elections downballot are of particular interest this year. Overall, Wisconsin voters have an especially poor view of the Wisconsin State Legislature at this critical moment. Just 33% approve of the job it’s doing, with 55% saying they disapprove. More than that, even, only 5% say they “strongly approve,” while 27% “strongly disapprove.”
While the poll doesn’t include the favorability rating of Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos — who has polled with just 14% favorable to 35% unfavorable, a net favorability rating of minus-21, as recently as June — there is a significant partisan divide in these responses.
Democrats are especially negative in their rating of the state’s legislative branch, with just 26% who approve to 62% disapprove. Independents, too, have a negative view, with 30% approve to 61% disapprove. Things are more even among Republicans, but still negative overall, with 41% approve to 47% disapprove.
Ideologically, only “very conservative” voters have a net-positive view of the state legislature, with 52% approve to 37% disapprove.
Earlier this week, I was quoted in the Washington Post in a piece by columnist Karen Tumulty on state legislative elections, talking about how Vos has “governed as if this is a deep-red state even though it’s as purple as it gets.” Since the furthest-right voters are the only ones in the poll with a net-positive view of the legislature, perhaps there’s some additional credence to lend to that point.
And if you want more on what’s happening in state legislative races in Wisconsin, check out our in-depth, district-by-district voter guide.
Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. In 2024, he became the Political Editor of Civic Media. He’s also written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 18 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
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