Marquette Poll Breakdown: Biden-Trump, Baldwin-Hovde and more in perpetual "toss-up" Wisconsin
Republicans have to be happy with this poll. But there are encouraging signs for Democrats (Baldwin in particular). Plus: How does Hovde's first two months compare to Tim Michels?
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The Marquette University Law School Poll is the gold standard of measuring public opinion in Wisconsin, so here at The Recombobulation Area, we take a close look at each new poll. See all of our previous breakdowns here.
PLUS: After each new poll in 2024, we’ll be sitting down with Charles Franklin, executive director of the (top ranked!) Marquette University Law School Poll, to discuss the results. Subscribe to get that podcast delivered to your inbox.
New poll, new breakdown. Let’s recombobulate.
Overall, this was a good poll for Republicans
There are going to be many Marquette polls over the course of this year. In a state this closely divided, some are going to favor Republicans, others are going to favor Democrats. This one is pretty good for Republicans.
In the new Marquette University Law School Poll, among likely voters, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden and Eric Hovde polled even with Tammy Baldwin.
Those two are the most obvious examples, but we also see several others. For one, Joe Biden’s approval rating remains quite low, at just 40% (net minus-17), matching his worst marks of his presidency in Wisconsin. That’s at the same time when Trump’s “retrospective” approval rating is 47% (net minus-5).
Hovde was behind Baldwin among registered voters — which Franklin said to reporters after the presentation is the more reliable metric at this stage of the race — but being even with Baldwin in the first head-to-head of the race is significant, and even being down 52%-47% matters in a race with Baldwin, who won re-election by double-digits in 2018, seems like a solid first step for Hovde.
The poll also shows an edge for Republicans on an issue that’s grown in salience — immigration, where a majority of voters favor the Trump-backed policy of deporting immigrants who are “living in the country illegally” (56% favor to 39% oppose).
I tend to think Democrats are in better shape in Wisconsin than Republicans, on balance, but this poll is the latest piece of evidence that there is some real work for them to do between now and November.
The latest on the Biden-Trump rematch
Wisconsin is going to be a “toss-up” state for the presidential election. You know this, I know this, everybody knows this. Four of the last six presidential elections in the state have been decided by less than 1%. It’s been the tipping point state in the last two presidential elections and we’re going to be there yet again here in 2024.
And here we are, with Trump at 51% and Biden at 49%. A toss-up race, same as it ever was, same as it has been.
And with one incumbent and one former president on the ticket for a rematch, there’s only so much that can really change. But even infinitesimal changes in Wisconsin can result in a different winner.
So, what’s actually interesting here?
This slide from the results presentation stood out to me.
In particular, the portion on having “strong accomplishments” stood out. As did another rating on Trump’s retrospective job approval rating. The way we talk about “accomplishments” deserves further investigation (but perhaps that’s for another column).
Within the head-to-head polling, there’s a lot of what you might expect. Men favor Trump; women favor Biden. Young voters favor Biden. Higher income voters favor Trump; lower favor Biden. Religious voters favor Trump; less religious voters go for Biden. Milwaukee and Madison favor Biden, suburban Milwaukee favors Trump, northern and western Wisconsin favors Trump, and the Green Bay market slightly favors Trump.
But in this poll, independents overwhelmingly went for Trump — 59% to 41% — a departure from previous polls where Biden was ahead. And within age groups, the typically Democratic-leaning millennial cohort — in this poll, the 30-44 year-olds age group — also significantly favored Trump.
Seeing this in the same poll where Tammy Baldwin was ahead with independents and millennials suggests there’s some noise here. I also discussed this shift among independents with poll director Charles Franklin, and he talked about how those poll-to-poll shifts among independents can occur (subscribe to get that conversation sent right to your inbox).
But Trump having a clear edge in several of these categories of what “describes” each candidate is meaningful. If voters view Trump as the more accomplished president, and areas where Biden should have an advantage are more neutral (the “shares your values” question in particular), that could prove to be problematic for Biden and Democrats.
Still, Trump doesn’t poll great, overall. If this represents a good poll for Republicans, a 2% lead and some fairly dismal favorability ratings for their presidential candidate doesn’t scream long-term confidence, either.
Either candidate could win this one. Of course.
The first poll for the Baldwin-Hovde Senate race
It took a while for a serious Republican challenger to enter this race, but now Hovde is here and since he’s not facing any serious opposition in the primary, it looks likely that he’ll be the nominee to take on Baldwin.
So, part of this is establishing a baseline. Where does this race start, between the Democratic incumbent seeking her third term and the Republican seeking his first time in elected office?
Baldwin leads among registered voters, and that’s the more meaningful metric for the time being. Once we get to August or September, Franklin said, the likely voter number becomes the one to put in focus.
The Marquette poll also showed two versions of these head-to-head polls. In one, the “undecided” voters were broken out as its own category. In the other, poll respondents were asked to answer as if the election were happening today (or “had to choose,” using the poll’s language).
So, in the first of those, 18% were undecided, with Baldwin having a 44% to 37% lead. In the other, it’s 52% to 47%, also in favor of Baldwin. Franklin focused more on the “had to choose” (“with leaners,” if you’re looking at the toplines or crosstabs from the poll), so we’ll do the same here.
So where are voters landing as this race begins?
For one, there’s an enormous gender gap. With men, Hovde leads 56% to 43%; with women, Baldwin leads 60% to 38%. That’s an even more sizable gap than the Biden-Trump race.
Among the four age groups polled — 18-29, 30-44, 45-59, 60+ — Hovde only leads in the 45-59 group. Baldwin is even up double-digits in the 60+ age group, which is, um, interesting.
Baldwin also leads among most education levels. During the Trump era, there’s been a real shift among those with college degrees to be more likely to support Democrats. Here, we see voters of most education levels supporting Baldwin, including some of the non-college voters that have shifted toward Republicans in recent years.
Baldwin is also ahead in the crucial Green Bay media market. While Trump led Biden in that region in this poll, Baldwin is up 54% to 46%. She’s done well here before, winning in Winnebago, Outagamie, Brown and Door counties in 2018.
Hovde may have had a strong topline number here, but of the two, you’d prefer to be Baldwin at this stage of the race.
Comparing Eric Hovde and Tim Michels
Inevitably, there are going to be some comparisons between Eric Hovde and Tim Michels. Both ran a statewide race more than a decade prior, and neither won. Both are from Wisconsin, but spent a significant portion of their career working outside of the state before returning home to run for office. Both also announced later in the election cycle than most candidates tend to.
Eric Hovde launched his campaign in late February of this year. Michels launched his in late April of 2022. In both instances, there were Marquette University Law School Polls that followed about two months later.
In the June 2022 poll, Michels had the following favorability rating:
And here in the April 2024 poll, Hovde has the following favorability rating:
It’s pretty similar, overall. But in what is a fairly favorable poll for Republicans, Hovde doing a bit worse than Tim Michels at the same stage isn’t exactly an encouraging sign for his campaign.
There are key differences between Michels and Hovde, of course. Michels was running in a competitive primary at the time (Rebecca Kleefisch, Kevin Nicholson and Timothy Ramthun were all running), and another formidable Republican candidate has yet to emerge in this primary (and probably won’t, at this point).
So, while there are reasons for Republicans to be encouraged by some of Hovde’s poll numbers here, there are also plenty of reasons to be cautious. Starting a campaign at a net-negative with more than 55% not yet having an opinion of you (including nearly 80% of voters between ages of 18 and 29, who typically favor Democrats) is not cause for celebration.
Also of note: Hovde’s highest unfavorable number and worst net-negative comes with the 60+ age group, where he’s at 32% unfavorable, and a net minus-11. Michels at the equivalent time was split with that age group, 30% favorable to 30% unfavorable. Perhaps Hovde’s conspiracy-tinged comments on people voting in nursing homes played a role in this. It’s certainly something I expect we’ll hear more of in the months to come.
The Democrats’ immigration problem
Within this poll, there are a number of questions on immigration and the border. For Republicans, this is a top issue, ranking second (37%) only behind the economy (43%), and miles ahead of abortion (5%), which ranks third. For Democrats, it barely registers, with only 1% of voters saying it’s the most important issue in 2024. Independent voters also rank it as the No. 2 issue in the race, behind the economy.
But it’s not just that Republicans place the issue in higher prominence, their policies are also winning on the issue.
Marquette has asked about undocumented workers many times over the years, and more often than not, huge majorities have said they should be able to stay and apply for citizenship. In dozens of polls dating back more than eight years, to March 2016, at least 60% of registered voters said people should be able to stay and apply for citizenship, with less than 20% saying they should be required to leave the country.
But in this poll, only 49% say they should have a path to citizenship, and 30% said they should be deported. That’s a big change.
The poll also shows that a significant majority of voters say they favor “deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries.”
Democrats are not doing a good job of articulating a position on immigration, and appear to have ceded it entirely to Republicans, who are making this a winning issue. Democrats need to address this problem, and do so in a way that’s not just amping up anti-immigrant rhetoric and being Republican Lite. There is another path here, but they have to actually go and make the case.
Where do voters stand on the three branches of government in Wisconsin?
Marquette is monitoring this in every poll, which is a really important datapoint to understand how people feel about each branch of government at the state level.
Here are how those approval ratings shake out:
Tony Evers: 52% approve - 44% disapprove (3% don’t know)
28% strongly approve / 25% somewhat approve / 19% somewhat disapprove / 25% strongly disapprove
Wisconsin State Legislature: 34% approve - 56% disapprove (9% don’t know)
5% strongly approve / 29% somewhat approve / 34% somewhat disapprove / 22% strongly disapprove
Wisconsin Supreme Court: 46% approve - 39% disapprove (15% don’t know)
8% strongly approve / 38% somewhat approve / 23% somewhat disapprove / 16% strongly disapprove
Evers continues to be a very popular governor, the Wisconsin State Legislature continues to be by far the most unpopular branch of government (and Republican leader Robin Vos continues to have the worst net favorability rating of any politician polled), and the Wisconsin Supreme Court is a slight net positive.
Seems telling about where things are in Wisconsin’s government right now.
One last thing…
With Trump amping up 2020 election denier rhetoric on the campaign trail and candidates like Hovde nodding to Gableman-level conspiracy theories, this is not going away anytime soon. I don’t know where this leaves us, but it is not great.
Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He’s also written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 18 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
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Dear Mr. Shafer...Thank you for your superb work that never fails to educate! Quick question: What did the Marquette Poll say re: Wisconsin in the six month, three month , one month and right before the 2020 Presidential election? With appreciation. Jonathan