Harris leads, Walz shines, Senate race tightens: Takeaways from the new Marquette poll
Plus, a theme throughout: The gender gap is wide in Wisconsin politics, with men supporting Republicans and women supporting Democrats.
The Recombobulation Area is a thirteen-time Milwaukee Press Club award-winning weekly opinion column and online publication founded by longtime Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer. The Recombobulation Area is now part of Civic Media.
The Marquette University Law School Poll is the gold standard of measuring public opinion in Wisconsin, so here at The Recombobulation Area, we take a close look at each new poll. See all of our previous breakdowns here.
1. Harris takes a lead over Trump in Wisconsin
First, let’s take a look at the highlight item for the poll — the race for president between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, here in one of the seven states that will determine the outcome of the 2024 election.
Kamala Harris: 52%
Donald Trump: 48%
Harris polls quite well in this poll of Wisconsin voters. She’s over 50%, and has a four-point lead over the former president, with both registered voters and likely voters. This poll was conducted shortly after the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention, and it does seem as if she got a bit of a post-convention bounce. This is also the first poll taken with Tim Walz included as running mate, and he polls quite well, too.
And clearly, the enthusiasm in the race has shifted in a dramatic way, with just 40% of Democrats “very enthusiastic” about voting in June with Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, to more than 70% now with Harris — now clearly ahead of Republican enthusiasm.
In the head-to-head between Harris and Trump, a few categories in the crosstabs stand out.
For one — and this is going to be a theme of this poll, and perhaps of this election — the gender gap is significant. Men back Trump by a 10-point margin, and women back Harris by a 16-point margin. This also shows up in favorability numbers, where Trump’s favorability is poor with women, a net minus-25, while Harris’ is poor with men, a net minus-20.
Harris also leads among most age groups, only behind Trump in the 45-59 bracket, which is consistently the most Republican-leaning age group of the four in the Marquette poll (18-29; 30-44; 60+ being the others).
With independent voters, Harris leads 59% to 40%. In the final poll on between Joe Biden and Trump, before the president dropped out, this mark was essentially even. And among moderate voters — who, in Wisconsin, tend to vote more often for Democrats — Harris leads 64% to 36%.
Regionally, Harris not surprisingly does especially well in Milwaukee and Madison, Trump leads in the Milwaukee suburbs and exurbs, and in northern and western Wisconsin, the split was close to even. The only surprise was that Trump polls comfortably ahead in the Green Bay media market, 60% to 40%, which is typically much closer.
Beyond the favorability and head-to-head numbers, Marquette polled a series of phrases, asking how well each describes the candidate. Harris polled ahead of Trump on “is intelligent,” “has the right temperament,” “has communication skills to be president,” and “is honest.” Trump leads harris on “strong record of accomplishments” and “is a strong leader.
Additionally, nearly 60% of all voters say Trump is “too old to be president” and more than 60% say Trump “has behaved corruptly.”
Harris, overall, is in a much better position than Trump in this poll. But there is some noise to monitor. Independent voters swung wildly from Trump in the August poll to Harris now, especially on favorability. Where these voters land will go a long way toward determining who eventually wins in this state that we know will be a “toss-up” all the way until Election Day.
2. Tim Walz is quite popular in Wisconsin (and JD Vance is not)
At the poll release presentations at Marquette University Law School, director Charles Franklin often muses about how unpopular so many of the candidates are, with most of them having net-negative favorability ratings. In the last poll, the only elected official polled with a positive rating was Gov. Tony Evers, who remains a net positive once again in this poll.
He’s now joined by Kamala Harris’ running mate, Minnesota governor Tim Walz. This is the first time Marquette has polled Walz, and he comes in with a favorability rating of net plus-6 — on par with Evers. Walz is viewed favorably by 43% of Wisconsin voters, to 37% unfavorable (and 19% who “haven’t heard enough” to have an opinion on him.”)
Walz has strong marks with moderate voters (51% favorable - 20% unfavorable) and independents (41%-27%), and has a net-positive rating with voters at all income levels. He has a solid net positive with voters whose highest level of education is a high school diploma, at net plus-13 — and that’s an area where other Democratic candidates have struggled. With voters over 60 years old, he’s a net plus-10. Among women, net plus-17.
Conversely, the Republican candidate for vice president (an open position on this ticket because of…right, that) is not polling well at all in this crucial swing state. First-term Ohio Senator JD Vance, overall, has a net favorability rating of minus-10 in Wisconsin, with 37% favorable to 47% unfavorable, and 16% who don’t yet have an opinion of him.
There is again a gargantuan gender gap here, as Vance has a net favorability rating with women of net minus-21 (and is just +2 with men). Vance also has a net-negative favorability rating with every age group in this poll.
Throughout his campaign, Vance has aimed to connect with working class voters — it was a major theme of his RNC speech in Milwaukee — but judging by this poll, the message is not connecting. Among those with an income less than $40,000, he has a net favorability rating of minus-20 (30%-50%). With those who are members of labor unions or who live in a household with a union member, he’s also deep under water on favorability.
There’s also a question within the poll on the “perceived ideology” of top candidates, a question that also asks individuals to self-identify their own ideology. Here’s how that looks for Harris and Trump…
… and then for Walz and Vance.
Here, we see that “moderate” voters make up the largest group of the Wisconsin electorate, and Harris is seen as slightly more moderate than Trump, but Walz is seen as significantly more moderate than Vance. Voters even view Vance as more conservative than Trump. Among the vice presidential candidates, Vance is clearly seen as more extreme to one side of the political spectrum than Walz.
In Wisconsin, there is a very clear contrast between the VP candidates. Walz looks to be helping his ticket. Vance does not. And Walz is checking just about every box you might want to see for a candidate running in Wisconsin.
3. The Baldwin-Hovde race tightens
In the poll between Tammy Baldwin and Eric Hovde from a month ago, the Democratic incumbent held a seven-point lead at 53% to 46%. Here’s where things stand now.
Tammy Baldwin: 52%
Eric Hovde: 48%
The August poll was a brutal one for Hovde, but he has appeared to close the gap ever so slightly. His favorability rating crept up from a net minus-13 to net minus-9, as his name recognition continues to rise throughout the campaign – nearly 40% of voters didn’t have an opinion of him in August, and that number has shrunk to 22% now. Among Republican voters, his favorability is finally starting to rise significantly, now at 69%, up from about 50% previously.
But Baldwin still has a significant lead among independents — 66% to Hovde’s 33% — and her favorability among independents rose to over 50%. She also leads with voters at all income levels. And again, there’s a huge gender gap in this race.
Additional questions in the poll focused on the Senate race asked about how well three phrases describe each candidate:
“is committed to serving the interests of Wisconsin”
“cares about people like me”
“Will work to solve our national problems”
For Baldwin, she polls best on the question on serving Wisconsin’s interest. Nearly 60% of voters say that describes her “very well” (38%) or “somewhat well” (23%). For Hovde, those numbers are lower, with 25% saying “very well” and 25% saying “somewhat well.” This area appears to be a distinct advantage for Baldwin, who is consistently in the news for delivering funding for projects across the state of Wisconsin.
On the “cares about people like me” question, Baldwin also polls well ahead of Hovde — a combined 54% saying that describes Baldwin well, with just 46% for Hovde.
Hovde is at 50% saying he “works to solve national problems”, with Baldwin only slightly ahead here at 53%.
The August poll was so bad for Hovde, it seemed as if there was nowhere to go but up. And his numbers have gone up. It’s also notable that Baldwin is no longer out-running the top of the ticket. Most polls have put her poll numbers, along with many other Democratic Senate candidates’ numbers, ahead of Harris (and well ahead of Biden), but that has moved closer to even now.
Nevertheless, Baldwin continues to be the favorite to win this race. Hovde has not come close enough to change that just yet, and he continues to face challenges of his own.
4. What are the top issues in this race, with less than 55 days to go?
Members of both parties seem to agree that the economy is a top issue in this race, as it always is in every presidential campaign. But beyond that, there are major partisan differences on which issues matter.
For Republicans, immigration and the border rate as the next highest issue priority, and for Democrats, abortion policy actually ranks slightly higher than the economy. But on both abortion and immigration, fewer than 10% of independent voters rank either as their most important issue. And foreign relations and the war in Gaza barely rank as anyone’s most important issue in this race.
For Democrats, Medicare and Social Security, health care, and ensuring fair and accurate elections register as fairly important issues. For Republicans, it’s the economy, the border, and not much else.
But let’s look at this a different way, again looking at the gender gap. Here’s how men and women perceive the most important issues, regardless of party identification.
Men:
The economy: 49%
Immigration and border security: 13%
Ensuring fair and accurate elections: 11%
Medicare and Social Security: 9%
Abortion policy: 8%
Foreign relations: 3%
Health care: 3%
The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza: 1%
Women:
The economy: 34%
Abortion: 22%
Immigration and border security: 10%
Medicare and Social Security: 9%
Health care: 8%
Ensuring fair and accurate elections: 6%
Foreign relations: 3%
The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza: 3%
5. Where do voters stand on deportation policies?
If the Marquette pollsters are going to keep asking this question, I’m going to keep pointing out the results. Here are the two questions they asked on public opinion of deporting undocumented immigrants.
Immigration is obviously a major issue in this campaign. And again, we see voters continue to side with the Republican position on the matter — don’t forget those “Mass Deportations Now!” signs at the RNC.
Democrats continue to miss an opportunity to present an actual alternative and or put forth a clear position on this issue, beyond attempts to explain away certain challenges or act as Republican Lite. There is room here for something different, if they wise up and recognize this.
Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He’s also written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 18 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
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Great summary, Dan. There's one important voting block that never gets included in polls, however, and that's US citizens living abroad. Our votes matter in close elections. Know anyone who is living, studying, working, retired or stationed abroad? Tell them to register and request an overseas absentee ballot today at www.votefromabroad.org