A too-early breakdown of the 2026 race for governor in Wisconsin
There’s likely to be a “Big 4” among potential Democratic candidates, at least at the outset. On the Republican side, a Trump endorsement will be the key to victory.
The Recombobulation Area is a 19-time Milwaukee Press Club award-winning opinion column and online publication founded by longtime Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer. The Recombobulation Area is now part of Civic Media.
Before going on vacation a couple weeks ago, I put the call out for mailbag questions. We’re in the dog days of summer, the state budget process is behind us, we’re not in an active campaign cycle and while the Trump 2.0 catastrophe continues to rage on from Washington, D.C., the state and local news cycle has been on the quiet side — by Wisconsin standards, at least.
Well, almost. Because the vast majority of the questions you all submitted for the mailbag centered around one topic: the race for governor in 2026. Second to that only were questions on the Brewers (best team in baseball!) and Bucks (what an offseason!). But perhaps it was those of you who may have agreed with my June column on why Tony Evers should not run for a third term, perhaps it’s the general interest in the opportunity for something new, but that is the topic that you all wanted to hear about in the mailbag.
So, instead of your typical Q&A, this mailbag edition will offer a way-too-early — and I mean way too early — assessment of the race for governor. I’ll save any Brewers and Bucks takes for social media (for now).
With that, let’s recombobulate on the 2026 race for governor in Wisconsin.
The Democratic Field
Who’s running?
Definitely in: Sara Rodriguez, David Crowley, Kelda Roys
Probably in: Josh Kaul
Doubtful, but not ruling it out: Ben Wikler
Hard to say: Mandela Barnes, Cavalier Johnson
The wildcard: Francesca Hong
Running, but not for governor: Sarah Godlewski
I will preface this breakdown to say that this is not an entirely uniformed opinion — I have done some reporting on this, though not a ton — but it is an opinion nonetheless. So, take that for what it’s worth.
Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez: Let’s start with first-out-of-the-gate candidate Sara Rodriguez, the state’s current Lieutenant Governor, and a former Assembly representative. It’s been quite the five-year run for Rodriguez in Wisconsin state politics. In 2020, she took the plunge and ran for Assembly in one of the most closely contested districts in the state, defeating a Republican incumbent and flipping a suburban seat from red to blue. She joined the gubernatorial ticket in 2022 for Tony Evers’ successful re-election, and is now high on the short list of potential Democratic nominees for governor in 2026.
Rodriguez’s success in flipping an Assembly seat and her ascent to statewide candidacy is in some part indicative of changing political trends in Wisconsin. Her hometown of Brookfield is one where, in the 2012 presidential election, Republican Mitt Romney won nearly 68% of the vote (a more than 36% margin!), but in 2024, President Donald Trump only won the city by just over 5%, with 51.4% of the overall vote(footnote: via Marquette Law Poll’s Wisconsin elections database). That’s quite a shift in a relatively short amount of time. Add to this her background in health care, and it’s worth wondering if her base, of sorts, could be the kind of highly educated voter that’s gone from red to blue over the last 15 years.
And despite the job of Lieutenant Governor being a largely low-duties rule in state government, Rodriguez has developed some political skills in her time there. For one, she’s become a stronger speaker. Throughout the 2024 campaign, Rodriguez became a regular on the stump at the many, many campaign events that were criss-crossing the state (I’ll never be able to listen to Beyonce’s “Freedom” without getting press pit flashbacks). She continued to get better and better in those speeches along the way.
Being first out of the gate has also allowed her to start the campaign process ahead of the rest of the field. Comical upload timing notwithstanding, her announcement video was well done and largely well received. And already in August, she has announced endorsements from several current and former members of the Wisconsin State Legislature, along with the support of dozens of local-level elected officials and community members from around the state.
Rodriguez is off and running, and is sure to be a significant factor in this primary. But I would hesitate to put her in any kind of “frontrunner” range. She’ll have some work to do to get there, but she will be among the top candidates to watch.
The first four candidates listed here are part of a group we’ll call the “Big 4” — the top four likely candidates with the best chances to win the primary. Rodriguez is on that list.
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley: The day after Tony Evers announced he would not be running for re-election, Crowley released a statement saying he’d be “taking steps toward entering the race for governor,” and while he’s yet to formally launch his campaign, every expectation is that he soon will.
Longtime readers of The Recombobulation Area may remember the early days of this publication, when I endorsed David Crowley before the Feb. 2020 primary for Milwaukee County Executive, over Chris Larson and Theo Lipscomb. I’ve hosted a live podcast with Crowley and interviewed him several times over the years — including his first indication he’d be interested in running for governor, in a Dec. 2023 interview — and I’ve long been a fan of his bridge-building, pragmatic approach to leadership and have thought of him as a rising star in the Democratic Party in Wisconsin. So, you might not be surprised to hear that I am optimistic about his prospects as a statewide candidate.
Crowley is young, but has already built a formidable record to run on, racking up several significant wins in his time as Milwaukee County Executive, following several years in state politics as an Assembly representative. But being a politician from Milwaukee comes with a certain level of baggage to it, fairly or not (usually not, in my estimation), as it pertains to a statewide race, which can’t be dismissed. You also can’t ignore the fact that he’d be running to make history as the state’s first Black governor, and that will bring with it a certain set of challenges, too, in a state like Wisconsin. But I do think that once Crowley hits the campaign trail, he’s going to really connect with people. He’s an A-level retail politician, has strong connections with labor unions and building trades, and has an inspiring personal story. He also has executive experience, leading the state’s most populous county, which not all candidates will be able to say.
There is a distinct regional component to consider for Crowley’s candidacy, though. In the Milwaukee market, he’s well known and well liked. Mention his name in and around the city and county, and people will speak positively about his bid for higher office. Outside of southeastern Wisconsin, though, it’s more: “David who?” His name ID outside of the metro area will need to be addressed, and it will be interesting to see how exactly he does this. And then, too, if other Milwaukee area candidates jump into the race (see: Johnson, Cavalier; Barnes, Mandela), that could split potential votes from the region, limiting his ceiling in the primary.
Nevertheless, I think Crowley has a real chance to win the Democratic primary, and go on to win the race for governor. I think he might have the highest upside of any candidate in the race.
State Senator Kelda Roys: Roys made some news on Civic Media last week, saying on “The Todd Allbaugh Show,” “I am pretty likely to run for governor in 2026.”
We love it when people make news on the Civic Media airwaves! And based on how she described the announcement process, it wouldn’t surprise me to see her formally launch a campaign for governor after Labor Day (that might be a time for several more campaign launches, tbh).
Roys ran for governor in 2018, coming in third (13%) in the Democratic primary behind Tony Evers (42%) and Mahlon Mitchell (16%), but ahead of many other candidates in a very large field. In the time since, she’s become one of the standout Democratic leaders in the State Senate. Elected in 2020, Roys has become a member of the powerful Joint Committee on Finance, where she’s done some really terrific work, despite being in the minority party. The fact that she’s been as active in state government as she has been since 2018 is a real mark in her favor.
She’d be a compelling candidate, and could draw on her longstanding support in the reproductive rights movement to boost her campaign and set herself apart on an issue that’s been critical in driving Democratic victories in the state in recent years. She wrote a guest column about this topic and approach in The Recombobulation Area earlier this year, in fact.
But running unopposed in general elections for a Dane County State Senate seat is much different than running a statewide race. I’m curious to see what kind of ideological approach could she take in a race like this, where a more progressive lane could be open — but would that be a lane she’d want to take? That approach might work in Madison, but might not resonate statewide the same way. The details of her approach in the campaign will be especially important, but she’s certainly part of the “Big 4.”
Attorney General Josh Kaul: Rounding out that “Big 4 list” is Josh Kaul. While Kaul is yet to make any declarative statements on his prospects for 2026, he's made his interest in running for governor no secret over the years. And when you’ve won two statewide races, you’re obviously going to be on the list — and possibly at the top of it.
There’s been a recent trend of attorneys general named Josh running successfully for governor in purple states (Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, Josh Stein in North Carolina), so could Kaul add to the list? All joshing aside, the two-term Attorney General would likely begin this primary campaign as the frontrunner. He has more statewide elected experience than anyone in the mix, defeating Brad Schimel in 2018 and Eric Toney in 2022, both by razor-thin margins. Kaul isn’t particularly flashy, but as Tony Evers showed, “boring wins” in Wisconsin. Another mark in his favor is, of course, having served as Attorney General at a time when some level of legal authority could be a distinct asset for a candidate running during the Trump 2.0 Era.
While Kaul would start this race as the frontrunner, I do not think he would be an overwhelming one. Some questioned if he was aggressive enough going after the “fake electors” after the 2020 election. And his tenure as Attorney General has not had all that many high profile moments, so his name ID is probably not as high as others in the role might be — and I do wonder who might run for Attorney General, if not Kaul. Nevertheless, he rounds out the “Big 4” here, if and when he announces. It would not be at all surprising to see him as the nominee this time next year.
Former WisDems Chair Ben Wikler: Wikler turning right around to run for governor, after ending his six-year run as chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, and coming up short in a bid for national DNC chair early in the year, would be genuinely surprising. But as I reported last year, Wikler does have interest in running for statewide office. I do think he’d be a fascinating candidate. But at the moment, I’d say it’s far more likely he entertains a run for U.S. Senate in 2028 than he turns right around to run for governor in 2026. But, there are only so many statewide Democratic primaries, and Wikler taking a shot now can’t be entirely ruled out.
Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson: Even before Evers chose not to seek a third term, Johnson’s spokesman told NBC News that the Milwaukee Mayor would be in “strong position” to run for governor, if it were an open race. While Johnson has potential as a statewide candidate, this doesn’t seem like the best timing for him. While there are plenty of similarities between the two young Milwaukee leaders, I think Crowley is in a better position for a statewide run now than Johnson is. Crowley has been in office two years longer, and has a good relationship with the County Board, whereas elements of Johnson’s agenda have stalled due in part to a pricklier relationship with the Common Council, giving the Milwaukee County Executive more of a record to run on, even if mayor tends to be the more high profile job. Johnson is only 38 years old, though, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities in his political future.
Former lieutenant governor Mandela Barnes: Barnes came agonizingly close to defeating Ron Johnson in 2022. Fewer than 28,000 votes made the difference. Barnes probably both outperformed expectations of unseating an incumbent in a Republican-advantage midterm, and left a number of opportunities unrealized during the campaign. It’s reasonable to think he’d want another shot at a statewide run. It’s possible he could stake claim to a more progressive lane than the “Big 4” candidates I identified earlier. But I would be surprised if this is the shot Barnes takes at a statewide run. Another option that could be intriguing: If Gwen Moore decides not to seek re-election to Congress at some point soon, Barnes would be a very strong candidate for that role.
For both Johnson and Barnes, I think both are giving it serious consideration. Of the two, I think it would be more likely for Barnes to run. But my guess would be that neither decides to run this time around.
State Representative Francesca Hong: WisPolitics reported Monday that Francesca Hong, Assembly representative from Madison (and occasional Recombobulation Area contributor), is seriously considering a run for governor. Were that to happen, she would emerge as the true wildcard in the race. From an ideological standpoint, Hong would be comfortably to the left of the rest of the field, but I don't know that an ideological divide is as animating among Democratic politics as it once was. Look at what’s happening with Rebecca Cooke’s campaign in the 3rd Congressional District, where she is attending centrist idea-fests, celebrating the endorsement of the Blue Dogs, and campaigning with Bernie Sanders. And if there’s any Zohran Mamdani-type of political energy lurking among Democratic voters in Wisconsin, Hong would be the one to seize it. Ideology aside, voters might also respond well to the “share the table” message and tireless work ethic of the former restaurant owner. Hong’s entry would throw a real curveball into the race, and I’d be fascinated to see how it all breaks. But she’d have some real work to do to become truly competitive in a statewide gubernatorial primary, making the jump from a safe blue Assembly seat.
Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski: When I made my initial list of potential Democratic candidates for governor in 2026 in my column on Tony Evers and a third term, Godlewski was on it. Given her run for U.S. Senate in the 2022 race and the fact that she’s clearly very ambitious, it seemed likely she’d be in the mix in 2026.
But instead of running for governor, it seems like she is going to be running for the role of Lieutenant Governor. That race could prove to be an interesting one, too. State Sen. Brad Pfaff also has interest in the role, I’ve heard. There could be more, too.
There’s a certain domino effect happening for several of these statewide constitutional offices. With Rodriguez, Kaul and Godlewski likely seeking different offices, we could also see open Democratic primaries for Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State and State Treasurer (currently held by Republican John Lieber). And that’s nothing to say of potential candidates for State Senate and Assembly, in the first fully post-Gerrymander election. There’s going to be a lot of shake-up up and down the ticket. It’s as close to a reset moment as we’ll have in state politics in Wisconsin. Don’t run from that change: It’s a genuine opportunity.
Other potential candidates worth monitoring: WEDC CEO Missy Hughes, State Sen. Chris Larson, American Family Field beverage vendor Ryan Strnad (who will formally announce this week).
The Republican Field
Who’s running?
Already running: Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann, business executive Bill Berrien
Potentially (and seemingly already) running: Congressman Tom Tiffany
Doubtful, but worth monitoring: Sean Duffy
Other possible candidates: Eric Hovde, Tim Michels, Mary Felzkowski, Rebecca Kleefisch
Not running: Bryan Steil
One big thing looms over the Republican primary for governor in Wisconsin: A Trump endorsement.
If any candidate gets endorsed by the president, the primary is effectively over. In a crowded field, and given the popularity of Trump within the Republican Party after his second win in Wisconsin, his endorsement would be decisive in this race.
The example to draw upon here is last year’s open primary in the 8th Congressional District, where Trump endorsed Tony Wied over Roger Roth and Andre Jacque, and Wied won the primary with more than 42% of the vote. A similar dynamic would be in play here for the Republican gubernatorial primary.
At the moment, this is not a particularly strong field for a statewide race. But this is Wisconsin, the purplest of purple states, and any Republican candidate has a real chance of winning in a place where statewide races are decided by decimal points.
Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann: Schoemann was the first-out-of-the-gate candidate on the Republican side, launching his campaign in early May. He’s been County Executive for the past five years, and is actually the first County Executive in the county’s history, after establishing the position to replace the Administrator role, which Schoemann held from 2014 to 2020. At age 43, Schoemann is on the younger side, and while he’s been an active and enthusiastic campaigner these last few months, it’s telling that Republicans are continuing to look elsewhere for potential candidates.
Here at The Recombobulation Area, contributor Jordan Morales wrote about how, in 2022, Schoemann failed to pass a police funding referendum in one of the reddest counties in Wisconsin, after peacocking around on social media in the weeks prior that he would do just that. Oops. Not exactly a sign that he’s some master political operator waiting in the wings. With that type of electoral failure on his record, coming from a mid-sized red county with little statewide name recognition, and with the GOP base not exactly rallying behind him, it’s hard to see Schoemann breaking through as the winner in this primary.
But what can’t be ruled out is Schoemann winning a war of attrition, of sorts, if another candidate does not materialize, since his prospects are better than the next person on this list…
Business executive Bill Berrien: Berrien is the CEO of New Berlin-based manufacturing company Pindel Global Precision Inc., and is a former Navy SEAL. He announced his run as a political “outsider,” and despite past support for Nikki Haley in the 2024 Republican primary, likened himself to Donald Trump, and is clearly gunning for an endorsement from the president.
But whether it’s his past support of Haley or some wishy-washy comments trying to run from his prior support for ranked choice voting (conservatives really do not like ranked choice voting!), it doesn’t seem like he’s endeared himself to a Trumpier Republican base. But someone with deep pockets himself, and connections to big dollar donors — the Winklevoss twins donated a combined total of $1 million to his PAC — can’t be written off entirely. Wisconsin Republicans have, in recent years, leaned on candidates who have the capability to self-fund (see: Hovde, Eric; Michels, Tim), and that will give Berrien a fighting chance. But without a Trump endorsement, this candidacy would appear to have a very low ceiling.
Congressman Tom Tiffany: For years, the center of power for Republican politics in Wisconsin has resided in the WOW counties. That has been shifting considerably in recent years, as Waukesha and Ozaukee counties continue to become less red and more purple during the Trump Era. Countering that, and keeping Wisconsin on the perpetual razor’s edge in statewide elections, has been rightward shifts in more rural areas of the state, including parts of the 7th Congressional District, which Tom Tiffany has represented since 2020. Tiffany becoming the nominee in a statewide race could signify a real shift in the center of power for Republican politics in Wisconsin.
And that might be where we’re headed. A recent poll showed that, if Tiffany were to enter the race, he’d poll at 40%, well ahead of Schoemann (13%) and Berrien (10%), and that a Trump endorsement for Tiffany would essentially clear the field for him. Tiffany was also all over the place at the recent Wisconsin State Fair, and has been building his name ID with more frequent appearances on conservative media, and wading further into state issues on social media. It seems like he’s already running.
So, unless Trump endorses someone else, Tiffany might have what it takes to secure the nomination. But whether or not he’d have much crossover appeal would be the central question of a Tiffany candidacy. Can the GOP afford to lose even more votes in the WOW counties? Would Ozaukee County going blue be in play, in such a scenario? Is there more room for Republicans to grow their margins in rural areas? And would Tiffany be able to reach lower-propensity voters (or even some urban voters) the way Trump has? As much as he’s formidable in the primary, he does not project to be a uniquely strong general election candidate. But again, it’s Wisconsin, so anyone getting the nomination from one of the two major parties has a real shot.
U.S. Department of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy: He’s got a big job in the Trump administration, and it would be surprising to see him leave that role to return to Wisconsin to run for governor. But if he were to decide as much, he could easily be the GOP primary frontrunner. But I think Trump likes seeing him on national television too much to lose him to Wisconsin. Perhaps a U.S. Senate run in 2028 could be in Duffy’s future (or perhaps more TV).
Other potential candidates: Of those in the “other” category (at the moment, at least), I think Eric Hovde seems the most likely to give it another go in a statewide race. Not unlike Barnes on the Democratic side, Hovde came very close to unseating a two-term incumbent in his run for U.S. Senate. But unlike Barnes who conceded graciously the following day, Hovde threw a tantrum and refused to concede defeat until nearly two weeks after Election Day, citing some bogus conspiracy theories about voting in Milwaukee. Even so, a Tim Michels candidacy seems far less likely, if we’re looking at recent self-funding retreads. There’s still some intrigue to see what Rebecca Kleefisch does next in politics, but I’d suspect it’s not this.
The other potential candidate to consider is State Senate President Mary Felzkowski, whose name has been in the mix as a potential gubernatorial candidate. Felzkowski has served in the legislature since 2012, eight years in the State Assembly and the last five in the State Senate. There, she was one of the lead Republicans in negotiations for the shared revenue reform bill in 2023, and was elected Senate President following the 2024 elections. In 2020, she made the jump from the Assembly to the Senate to fill the vacancy left by … Tom Tiffany, when he ran for Congress. If Tiffany does run for governor, perhaps she could follow a similar path and run for Tiffany’s congressional seat. During the final debate on the state budget — which, unlike most of her party, she voted against — she gave the kind of speech that raises eyebrows among political observers. It wouldn’t be surprising to see her run for higher office somewhere.
Congressman Bryan Steil: It doesn’t come up much since he’s been pretty locked in to running for re-election in his current district, but to me, Steil has the most potential as a statewide candidate of any Wisconsin Republican. He consistently outperforms the top of the ticket in his district, is a strong fundraiser, and is good in the media. The fact that he is not running for governor in 2026 is good news for Democrats, taking the best potential GOP candidate off the board.
The partisan primary for the 2026 fall election is on Aug. 11. That’s *checks calendar* less than a year away (discombobulating!). A whole lot can happen between now and then. And it’s early. Most of these campaign launch announcements haven’t even formally happened yet. There will undoubtedly be some surprises along the way, and there will assuredly be some candidates that went unmentioned here that could eventually prove to be a factor in this primary and in this race for governor.
And as I said in my column about Tony Evers, this opportunity that passing the torch to the next generation presents is one where the voters are the ones determining the path forward. For Democrats in particular, who are not beholden to the endorsement of one man, this is a genuine opportunity for people to be the ones to choose the path forward for the party — not the consultants, not the donor class, not those of us in the media. No, it’s about the people choosing the next path forward. And that’s the opportunity Wisconsin voters have in front of them.
Just 357 days to go until the primary.
Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. In 2024, he became the Political Editor of Civic Media. He’s also written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 23 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
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Great read! My hunches differ on a couple of these but I’m excited to see how it shakes out. Either way, it’s fun to have so many talented and charismatic options on the democratic side.
Rebecca Kleefisch? Where has she been hiding? And Tom Tiffany is a funny case. His campaign photo portrays him as some kind of outdoor guy, I guess, but in front of a dam (Lac du Flambeau?); I suppose it’s because he is on Natural Resources committees in Congress, but he’s one of the use up natural resources folks rather than one interested in preserving them (unless he can make money somehow). Interestingly, he was one of only NINE Congress critters to vote against House Resolution 149, “Condemning the illegal abduction and forcible transfer of children from Ukraine to the Russian Federation.” He joined such luminaries as Andy Biggs, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Chip Roy in this disgraceful exercise. https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/118-2024/h88