9 takeaways from Wisconsin's partisan primary
Wisconsin voters defeat GOP-backed constitutional amendments, Rebecca Cooke wins in the 3rd, Tony Wied wins in the 8th, interesting state legislative primary results and more.
The Recombobulation Area is a thirteen-time Milwaukee Press Club award-winning weekly opinion column and online publication founded by longtime Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer. Learn more about it here.
The results of Wisconsin’s August partisan primary are in. More than 1.2 million Wisconsinites voted, despite there not being a statewide primary on the race. That’s pretty remarkable. In fact, it was the highest turnout for an August primary in 60 years.
So, let’s break down what happened in this election.
1. Wisconsin voters defeat Republican-backed constitutional amendments
In recent years, Republicans in the state legislature have advanced a number of constitutional amendments in their continued quest to consolidate power in the state. Most of the time, they have passed.
But not this time. This time, Wisconsin voters showed up in a big way to defeat these proposed amendments that would have changed the way federal funds are allocated in the state. On both questions, more than 57% of voters cast a “No” vote.
I asked WisDems chair Ben Wikler, who had been campaigning for the “No” vote in recent months, how these results compare to expectations.
“I’m blown away,” he said.
I have to agree. I expected these to both pass, just as constitutional amendment questions passed in April, and have passed the majority of the time they’ve been put before voters. Given all the campaigning and spending on these items — and there was a lot of money put toward the “No” vote here — it seemed possible that things might be different this time, but certainly not to this degree. This is a larger margin of statewide victory than what Janet Protasiewicz reached in Wisconsin last spring.
Marquette professor and Recombobulation Area contributor Phil Rocco has been way out ahead of the curve on this issue. We published a piece from him on this on June 20, and that has been one of our most-read stories in the time since. In another piece, published last week Friday, he wrote, “The fact that this kind of language is appearing at the end of a ballot in a low-turnout August primary is an insult to voters. The best way of responding to that insult is to vote “no” on both Questions 1 and 2."
And that's exactly what you all just did.
Rocco wrote another piece on this for us at The Recombobulation Area about these results and what they all mean, and you can read it here.
2. Rebecca Cooke wins in the 3rd
The Democratic primary in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District was won by Rebecca Cooke, defeating top contender Katrina Shankland in a contentious race.
Cooke gained more than 50% of the vote, finishing significantly ahead of Shankland (41.1%) and far ahead of Eric Wilson (8.8%). Shankland had the support of many of her fellow Democratic legislators, along with Congressman Mark Pocan, and has repeatedly proven to be a strong candidate in her home district that Republicans have repeatedly tried to flip, but Cooke ran a strong campaign and ultimately prevailed in this race.
Cooke will take on Republican Congressman Derrick Van Orden in the general election. This might end up being the closest congressional race in Wisconsin, and a flippable seat for Democrats.
To win this race, Cooke did especially well in and around Eau Claire, where she’s from. In Eau Claire and other counties in the northern part of the district, she ran ahead of Shankland by 20 and sometimes 30-point margins. Even though Shankland won her home county of Portage with more than 84% of the vote, it wasn’t enough to overcome how well Cooke did in this stronghold.
I podcasted about this race last week with UW-La Crosse professor Anthony Chergosky, and we discussed how the geography of this race would factor in significantly. With Cooke based in Eau Claire and Shankland in Stevens Point, that made La Crosse a key swing region. Cooke won La Crosse County by about an 8% margin, and wound up winning 17 of 19 counties in the district.
With how messy this campaign got in the final stretch, it’s going to be important for Democrats to come together for the general. Because Van Orden is beatable. And the margin in the House is hanging by a thread.
Rebecca Cooke ran a terrific primary campaign. The general election will undoubtedly be close, but this race is winnable for Democrats. It’s absolutely a possibility for Cooke to make Van Orden a one-term congressman.
3. Democratic turnout in the 3rd helps power the “No” vote victory
Some of the numbers for the “No” vote in western Wisconsin counties were eye-popping. On Question 1, more than 67% of Eau Claire County voters voted “No.” In La Crosse, that number was even higher, at nearly 69%. In the bellwether that is Sauk County, “No” got more than 60%.
The Cooke-Shankland primary clearly played a role here in driving these types of numbers. There was so much interest in this primary in this district that Eau Claire ran out of paper ballots. And let’s not forget, this is a district with many state universities (Eau Claire, La Crosse, Stout, Platteville, etc.) These turnout numbers are happening before students return to campus. This is a really strong sign for how organized and motivated Democratic voters are in western Wisconsin.
Also: Kamala Harris and Tim Walz campaigned in this district with Wisconsin Democrats less than a week before the August primary, as early voting was underway. Democratic voters seeing a significant spike in enthusiasm
4. GOP-backed “Yes” votes underperform in Waukesha and Ozaukee counties
The era of the WOW counties as a unified Republican stronghold is o-v-e-r, over.
The environment has been trending in this direction for quite some time, and while Washington County continues to be deep red, Waukesha and especially Ozaukee are becoming bluer and bluer in election after election.
In Ozaukee, the results of the statewide referendum vote was essentially 50-50. In Waukesha, yes votes gained only 57%. A decade ago, Scott Walker won re-election with 72% of the vote in Waukesha County and 70% of the vote in Ozaukee.
Not only are these results well behind the numbers Walker was posting in the early 2010s, it’s also behind two-time double-digit statewide election loser Daniel Kelly’s numbers in 2023. The Milwaukee-area suburbs continue to shift to the left, and given the population of these counties — Waukesha is the state’s third most populous, home to more than 400,000 people — this matters a great deal toward the eventual results in statewide elections. Republicans continue to have a real problem here.
5. Tony Wied wins and the 8th is in play
In the 8th Congressional District, there’s an open seat. That follows the early resignation of former Republican congressman Mike Gallagher.
The Democratic candidacy has been sewn up for some time by Kristin Lyerly, an OB/GYN who is making abortion rights the center of her campaign. But the GOP side was splintering in a three-candidate primary. In the end, it was the candidate with an endorsement from Donald Trump who won. Perhaps a Trump endorsement is all you need to win a three-candidate Republican primary.
So, it will be Trump-backed Tony Wied running against Democrat Kristen Lyerly. This is a Republican district, but one with an independent streak. Wied will be the favorite, but don’t count Lyerly and the Democrats out in this one. Roger Roth, who came in second in this primary, may have fared better in a general election in this race.
It’ll be an uphill climb, but a Democratic upset cannot be ruled out — especially now.
6. Nine interesting state legislative primary results from around the state
New maps produced a number of interesting results across the state. Here are a few of them.
District 6: On the Republican side, two incumbents faced off, and current 89th District representative Elijah Behnke defeated 6th District incumbent Peter Schmidt. Two years ago, in my legislative election preview, Schmidt had a category all his own as the “candidate facing a whole bunch of controversies.”
District 14: Angelito Tenorio defeated two other Democrats, Nathan Kieso and Brady Coulthard, to win in this Democratic-leaning district that includes much of West Allis. He’ll take on Republican Jim Engstrand this fall. I talked with all three candidates recently as guest host of “The Maggie Daun Show” on Civic Media.
District 19: Ryan Clancy, who restarted the Wisconsin Socialist Caucus in the state legislature at the onset of his term in 2023, fended off a primary challenge from Jarrod Anderson, who was endorsed by Mayor Cavalier Johnson and County Executive David Crowley. Clancy faces no Republican challenger in the general election. It’s an undeniably impressive showing from Clancy.
District 37: Mark Born won this race handily, but it was a bit surprising to see one of the co-chairs of the powerful Joint Finance Committee challenged in the Republican primary and see that challenger gain more than 30% of the vote.
District 55: Mike Schraa has represented the 53rd District for more than a decade, but under new maps, he was paired with fellow Republican Nate Gustafson, who defeated Schraa by a more than 11-point margin. Gustafson will face Democrat Kyle Kehoe in this Republican-leaning district in the general.
District 88: The specific results here aren’t actually that interesting, but what is interesting is a guy named Benjamin Franklin won this primary by defeating a guy named Phil Collins.
District 93: In the Democratic primary, Christian Phelps defeated Nickolas Butler by about 300 votes. Phelps works with the Wisconsin Public Education Network and will go on to face Republican James Rolbiecki in what is shaping up to be a very competitive race.
And on the Senate side…
District 4: Dora Drake defeated LaKeshia Myers for the second time this summer, winning more than 62% of the vote. She won on June 30 for the first time for the special election to complete the term started by former State Sen. Lena Taylor, and now has won again and is on track to serve a full term since there is no Republican running in this district.
District 16: Three state representatives from Dane County ran in this seat, and it was Melissa Ratcliff who emerged victorious with more than 52% of the vote, defeating Jimmy Anderson (31%) and Samba Baldeh (17%).
7. Election deniers lose. Thanks, fairer maps!
Two of the legislature’s most far-right, election denying members lost big today. Janel Brandtjen lost to Dan Knodl in the 24th Assembly District, and Timothy Ramthun lost to Dan Feyen in the 20th Senate District.
Under old maps, far-right election deniers Ramthun and Brandtjen would've had a path to an Assembly seat. They both held Assembly seats under old maps, after all. So it is notable that they both lost today. Election deniers keep losing, over and over.
8. Tony Evers keeps winning
Evers was one of the main voices out there campaigning for the “NO” vote. Last week, in the Marquette University Law School Poll, Charles Franklin referred to him as the “most popular guy in Wisconsin” as the only politician in Wisconsin with positive approval ratings.
Two-Term Tony just keeps winning. The legislature tried to strip some of his powers with these proposed constitutional amendments, and they lost.
Evers responded with a triumphant statement, saying, “My administration stabilized and rebuilt Wisconsin’s economy from the ground up during the worst economic crisis in a decade and the worst public health emergency in a century. And the proof of our hard work is in the pudding. In recent years, Wisconsin’s seen the largest surplus in state history, historically low unemployment, a record-high number of Wisconsinites employed, the most capital investments from businesses in over a decade, and so much more,” and ended with, “This was a referendum on our administration’s work and the future for Wisconsin we’ve been working hard to build together, and the answer is reflected in the people’s vote tonight.”
9. The field clears for Eric Hovde
In recent election cycles, Republicans have seen contentious primaries for statewide races. Then, a few months later, those races turned into Democratic victories. That was the case in races for governor (Tim Michels - Rebecca Kleefisch) and attorney general (Eric Toney - Adam Jarchow) in 2022, and in the nonpartisan-in-name-only race for Wisconsin Supreme Court in 2023 (Daniel Kelly - Jennifer Dorow).
So, in 2024, Hovde only saw nominal competition, with no other major candidate running. The field essentially cleared for him, with no Republican members of Congress stepping up to run, and other potential candidates passing on the contest.
As mentioned in our latest breakdown of the Marquette University Law School Poll, Hovde’s campaign is floundering, failing to find a path, and the candidate himself is at a net minus-13 favorability rating.
It will be interesting to see if this lack of primary hurts Hovde, not really being tested, or helps him, having a clear field to run against the incumbent for a longer part of the campaign.
And now, there’s just 83 days until Election Day on Nov. 5. Get ready.
Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. He’s also written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 18 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.
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I’m ready for Tammy Baldwin to just crush Hovde