23 Wisconsin state legislators to watch for the 2025-2026 session

In budget discussions and throughout the legislative session, these are the legislators most vulnerable to being ousted by the voters in 2026, under still-new maps.

May 14, 2025

The Recombobulation Area is a ~~thirteen-time~~ NINETEEN-TIME Milwaukee Press Club award-winning opinion column and online publication founded by longtime Milwaukee journalist Dan Shafer. The Recombobulation Area is now part of Civic Media.

Members of the Wisconsin State Legislature watch Tony Evers deliver a speech at the state Capitol in Madison. Photo by Dan Shafer.

The Republican-controlled Joint Committee on Finance voted on May 8 to remove more than 600 measures from Gov. Tony Evers’ proposed budget. This may have been a rather absurd action to take, but it was not a surprise. Far from it.

This biennial action has become an unfortunate part of our reality in this era of divided government in Wisconsin, which began in 2019 after Tony Evers defeated Scott Walker. The Democratic governor proposes a budget; the Republican-controlled legislature essentially rejects it entirely. This is the second budget cycle of Evers’ second term, making this the fourth time this has happened, so there was every expectation that this would play out in precisely this fashion.

There’s no real reason to be doing things this way, though. But this is the path that the Republicans running the legislature have continued to choose.

While many of the dynamics for this biennial budget cycle have remained the same as cycles prior, there is another element at play now: the impact of new, fairer maps. We saw that impact in election results last fall, as Democrats gained seats in both the Assembly and Senate.

Democrats make gains, but Republicans keep majority control in Wisconsin State Legislature

Dan Shafer

November 7, 2024

Read full story

But this is not just about election calculus, it’s about governing, too. Under old maps, it was nearly impossible to hold legislators’ feet to the fire, since safe majorities insulated lawmakers from any form of traditional if-you-do-this-we’ll-vote-you-out accountability. Now, though, there could be actual swing votes. That could be the case in the State Senate, in particular, as just last week, State Sen. LaTonya Johnson told WISN’s UpFront that Democratic votes will be needed to pass the budget in the upper chamber.

This might not exactly be like a Wisconsin-ified version of Joe Manchin and Kirsten Sinema or Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski in the U.S. Senate, but there are a number of legislators in closely contested districts who we should all be watching closely now as they’re governing 2025, with an eye on elections in 2026.

There are a few reasons why that’s the case. One is that Susan Crawford defeated Brad Schimel in the April election for Wisconsin Supreme Court, so potential threats of Republicans looking to re-gerrymander the state in the event of a Schimel victory are now all but gone.

Beyond that, half of the State Senate has still not yet been on the ballot under these new maps. The next election is truly the first post-Gerrymander election. Only seats in even-numbered districts were on the ballot last fall —and Democratic candidates won all five of the most closely contested State Senate races, shrinking the margins from a two-third supermajority to a 18 to 15 Republican majority. The path to a potential Democratic majority is going to be paved by actions taken by incumbent legislators in the next few months.

So, starting with the State Senate, let’s take a look at the legislators to watch in the current session and in upcoming budget votes, and who might be facing tough races on the ballot if votes they cast in the legislature prove to be difficult to defend to the voters. We’ll include lawmakers on both sides of the political aisle who won close races last fall, and who might be the most vulnerable to being unseated by the voters next year.

The fall 2026 election projects to be a mammoth one for Wisconsin, too. Offices for several statewide offices — governor, attorney general, secretary of state, state treasurer — will be on the ballot, and for the first time since before Republicans enacted one of the most extreme partisan gerrymanders anywhere in the nation, Democrats have a realistic chance of winning majorities in both the Assembly and Senate. That’s right, a Democratic trifecta — not seen since after the 2008 election, and only sustained for a lone two-year cycle — is in play.

So, let’s take a look at the legislators to watch in this still-fresh era of new, fairer maps, and who voters might have the best opportunity to hold accountable if the will of the people is not carried out in the Wisconsin State Legislature.

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State Senate

1. Howard Marklein (R - Spring Green)

District: Senate District 17

2024 presidential election result: Harris + 1
2024 U.S. Senate election result: Baldwin + 5

First elected: 2014 (2010 in the Assembly)

Current committees:

Howard Marklein is the co-chair of the Joint Committee on Finance. That committee, the most powerful in the budget-writing process, is the one that just voted to gut Tony Evers’ proposed budget.

He’s also in one of the most vulnerable districts in the State Senate — a district Kamala Harris won by a slim margin in the November election, and Tammy Baldwin won by nearly 5%. Granted, this is in southwestern Wisconsin, which has been trending red in recent years, but is still certainly a seat that could be flipped by the right candidate during the midterm election cycle.

Marklein’s actions on the budget will be perhaps the highlight item put before voters in any potential re-election bid, so what he does in the weeks and months ahead will be critical to watch for his political future, too.

Will he seek another four-year term? Right now, he’d be among the most vulnerable State Senate Republicans on the ballot next fall.

2. Rob Hutton (R - Brookfield)

District: Senate District 5

2024 presidential election result: Harris + 6
2024 U.S. Senate election result: Baldwin + 5

First elected: 2022 (2012 in the Assembly)

Current committees:

Committee on Judiciary and Public Safety
Committee on Transportation and Local Government (Vice-Chair)
Committee on Universities and Technical Colleges (Chair)
Joint Review Committee on Criminal Penalties (Co-Chair)

In 2020, as a member of the State Assembly, Rob Hutton faced a challenging re-election battle, seeking a fifth term in a district that had been trending away from Republicans. Sure enough, Hutton lost to Sara Rodriguez (now the state’s Lieutenant Governor) by a less than 2% margin.

In 2026, could Hutton again lose a bid for re-election in a key suburban district?

This might be the single most interesting legislative election on the map for 2026. This district includes parts of Wauwatosa (including the Zoo Interchange and Milwaukee Regional Medical Center), along with Elm Grove, Brookfield and Pewaukee. The western suburbs have become increasingly problematic for Republicans in recent years — even under The Gerrymander, this is where some Assembly Democrats were finding success in flipping seats — and this district went for Harris by a six-point margin in November.

Not unlike last fall’s race between Duey Stroebel and Jodi Habush Sinykin, this blue-trending district could emerge as the race to watch in the Milwaukee suburbs in 2026. And unlike with Marklein and others on this list, Hutton is not in his 70s (he’s 58), and it stands to reason that he’ll run for re-election after his first term in the State Senate. Watch Hutton closely this session, folks.

3. Van Wanggaard (R - Racine)

District: Senate District 21

2024 presidential election result: Harris + 1
2024 U.S. Senate election result: Baldwin + 2

First elected: 2010

Current committees:

Van Wanggaard has served in the State Senate for more than a decade, and has held several leadership positions among the Republican caucus in that time. A former police officer, Wanggaard has been among the GOP’s top legislative voices on matters relating to public safety.

It’s been quite a while since Wanggaard faced a tough electoral contest. The last time he was on the ballot, in 2022, he did not face a Democratic challenger. The 21st District he represents stretched all the way to the state’s southern border under previous maps, in more rural and exurban areas of Racine and Kenosha counties. But under new maps, this district includes much more of Milwaukee County, including southwest suburban communities like Franklin and Greendale.

Like with Marklein, it’s worth inquiring as to whether he will seek another term. Either way, it will be key to watch what he does in the budget and beyond this session.

4. Jeff Smith (D - Brunswick)

District: Senate District 31

2024 presidential election result: Harris + 2
2024 U.S. Senate election result: Baldwin + 5

First elected: 2018 (Assembly 2006-2010)

Current committees:

Jeff Smith is part of Democratic leadership in the State Senate, serving as Assistant Minority Leader, and previously as Minority Caucus Chair. In 2022, he was re-elected in one of the closest races in the state, winning by about 700 votes. His district includes Eau Claire and surrounding communities in northwestern Wisconsin.

Based on the numbers, Smith is the most vulnerable Democrat in the State Senate who will be on the ballot next year. He’s in a district won by Kamala Harris and Tammy Baldwin, but just barely. Competing trends in the region — mid-size cities getting bluer, rural areas getting redder — will mean this will continue to be a battleground district.

While Republicans in tough districts will certainly be under the microscope, given their place in the majority, but it will also be important to watch the actions taken by Democrats like Smith and others as they navigate being in more competitive seats.

5. Mark Spreitzer (D - Beloit)

District: Senate District 15

2024 presidential election result: Harris + 8
2024 U.S. Senate election result: Baldwin + 11

First elected: 2022 (Assembly 2014)

Current committees:

Spreitzer is in a seat on the safer side, but after Smith, is the incumbent Democrat in the most competitive district on next year’s ballot. Spreitzer is also in a party leadership position as Minority Caucus Chair.

6. Romaine Quinn (R - Birchwood)

District: Senate District 25

2024 presidential election result: Trump + 14
2024 U.S. Senate election result: Hovde + 11

First elected: 2022 (2014 in Assembly)

Current committees:

A seat won by both statewide Republicans by double-digits should put Quinn into safe territory, and that’s probably the case for him next year. Notable, though, is that he is part of the Joint Committee on Finance and just voted against many popular measures like Medicaid expansion, child care funding, and so much more. Of the districts won by Trump on the ballot next year, this district had the closest margins in 2024 results.

Without Medicaid, Wisconsin won’t work. Any cut to the program puts us all at risk.

Timothy Faust

May 7

Read full story

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State Assembly

Here, we’ll list the legislators to watch by closest 2024 presidential election result, and organize by party.

Assembly Republicans

The Assembly may have a 54-to-45 seat Republican majority, but any group of five Republicans has the potential to make things interesting. Longtime Assembly Speaker Robin Vos has been adept at holding his caucus together over the years, but things can change. Who knows what a midterm environment with Trump in the White House might bring?

So, these are the legislators in districts that project to be the most closely competitive next year. There are five Assembly Republicans who won in districts also won by Kamala Harris, and several more in closely competitive districts.

District: Assembly District 61

2024 presidential election result: Harris + 2
2024 U.S. Senate election result: Baldwin + 4

First elected: 2022

Current committees:

Committee on Criminal Justice and Public Safety
Committee on Judiciary
Committee on Local Government (Vice-Chair)
Committee on Urban Revitalization (Chair)

8. Jessie Rodriguez (R - Oak Creek)

District: Assembly District 21

2024 presidential election result: Harris + 4
2024 U.S. Senate election result: Baldwin + 7

First elected: 2013

Current committees:

Joint Committee on Finance

9. Shannon Zimmerman (R - River Falls)

District: Assembly District 30

2024 presidential election result: Trump + 4
2024 U.S. Senate election result: Hovde + 5

First elected: 2016

Current committees:

Joint Committee on Finance

10. Todd Novak (R - Dodgeville)

District: Assembly District 51

2024 presidential election result: Harris + 3
2024 U.S. Senate election result: Baldwin + 8

First elected: 2014

Current committees:

11. Dean Kaufert (R - Neenah)

District: Assembly District 53

2024 presidential election result: Harris + 4
2024 U.S. Senate election result: Baldwin + 6

First elected: 2024 (Previously from 1990-2014)

Current committees:

Committee on Corrections (Chair)
Committee on Financial Institutions
Committee on Local Government
Committee on Ways and Means (Vice-Chair)

12. Patrick Snyder (R - Weston)

District: Assembly District 85

2024 presidential election result: Trump + 1
2024 U.S. Senate election result: Baldwin + 1

First elected: 2016

Current committees:

13. Benjamin Franklin (R - De Pere)

District: Assembly District 88

2024 presidential election result: Harris + 0.3%
2024 U.S. Senate election result: Baldwin + 1

First elected: 2024

Current committees:

14. Clint Moses (R - Menomonie)

District: Assembly District 92

2024 presidential election result: Trump + 7
2024 U.S. Senate election result: Hovde + 4

First elected: 2020

Current committees:

Assembly Democrats

For Assembly Democrats to be able to contend with Vos and the Republican majority, they’ll need to stick together. They did that quite successfully in the last two-year session, when the threat of a veto override meant legislators and leadership had to have a fairly intricate system to ensure all members would be present for certain votes. Now, it’s not a veto override threat they’ll have to grapple with, but it’s still live in the minority for Assembly Democrats, and what they choose to prioritize on everything from messaging to tactics to where and how to vote on challenging issues will warrant scrutiny. In order to flip the Assembly in 2026, they’ll really have to earn the trust and faith of voters over the next few months. Many of these legislators in more closely competitive districts are in their first term, too.

Here, there is just one Assembly Democrat serving in a district won by Donald Trump (Steve Doyle). In order to increase their margins, they’re going to need to start by winning every district Harris won, and start winning in districts Trump won.