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Brookfield Square Mall is empty. And not just because it’s a weekday morning in February.

The emptiness is felt the minute you walk into the food court and there are no food vendors operating — the last one moved out in November. Vacant storefront after vacant storefront with vacant kiosks in between, with only a few anchor tenants hanging on, Brookfield Square Mall is now a ghost town — a relic of the once-bustling space it was, now struggling to re-invent itself.

When I go meet with Mike Hallquist, the Brookfield alderman now running for mayor, and he bristles. He knows this “empty husk of a different generation,” as he’d refer to it as, is not a particularly shining example of the evolution of the city where he’s served on the Common Council since 2020, and that it is clearly not currently in great shape. But, he tells me I should go visit on Saturday, where the Brookfield Farmers Market takes over the hollowed-out food court.

Hallquist is passionate about Brookfield, he’s an optimist, and he’s pragmatic. He’s very action-oriented, saying he’s “passed more ordinances and amendments” than anyone on the council, combined. He’s focused on results, and touts initiatives like the redevelopment of Wirth Park through a public-private partnership (officially reopened with an inclusive playground last week) and piloting the use of universal changing stations at city libraries (a concept since adopted by other Waukesha County communities) as top accomplishments in his current role. He champions public safety, and celebrates that in Brookfield, every firefighter in the city is also a paramedic — “a higher level of service than other communities provide.” He wants to get things done, and get them done well.

“How do we stay a great community?” he said. “You look for constant improvement in everything you do. And even when the answer is hard, you figure it out.”

The 40-year-old second-term alderman recognizes the need for this community of just over 40,000 people to “continue to adapt” and change with the times.

When it comes to development in a “built-out” suburb like Brookfield, Hallquist said, “It’s very easy when you are in expansion mode, when you have limitless fields of green to expand, to build houses…It’s much harder when you are now 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 years in the future and you’ve had to rebuild that road three or four times, and your property tax revenue will not go up high enough to cover that cost. So, the City of Brookfield has to find a way to remake itself as a modern suburb that is sustainable.”

Brookfield Square, he added, is a “natural location” for new housing, including affordable and mixed-income housing, and larger mixed-use developments that reinvent the space.

Housing and development is one of the top issues in Hallquist’s campaign for mayor — along with modernizing the way the city communicates by embracing digital media and being “radically transparent” about the way government operates. That also means being more hands-on and proactive about redevelopment — like at Brookfield Square Mall, where he’s critical of the current administration’s efforts there.

“The city should’ve been far more proactive in changing the zoning and indicating what it wants that property to be and the value it would provide,” he said. “And then, heaven forbid, we actually go out and try to find those projects to come into our community and we try to market those opportunities to people capable of building them, because that’s a win-win.”

Taking action on development projects is something a recent study from the nonpartisan Wisconsin Policy Forum shows that Brookfield is struggling with. Of several southeastern Wisconsin municipalities analyzed, Brookfield has by far the longest “median project timeline, “ of 467 days.

“We have to be more open to housing and providing what the market will provide,” he said, because “at some point, it’s death by a thousand cuts. We’ve made it so hard to build in this area that nothing will be built, and the best projects will look at Menomonee Falls, they’ll look at New Berlin, they’ll look at Waukesha, they’ll go to the Lake Country area and they’ll look at every area but us because we’ll be too hard to work with.”

Issues like housing and redevelopment or updated communications practices or responsible budgeting amid inflationary pressures and under-funding from the state are the types of challenges cities across Wisconsin are facing. In that respect, Brookfield is no different from so many of the municipalities where folks will be heading to the polls in the nonpartisan Spring Election on April 7.

Perhaps what sets this race apart, though, is that Hallquist is an unabashed Democrat running to be mayor of one of the largest cities in what was once the GOP’s unequivocal stronghold — Waukesha County.

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He’s also not the only Democrat running for mayor in a Waukesha County municipality. Alicia Halvensleben, a second-term alder and Common Council President, is running for mayor in the city of Waukesha.

A generation ago, Democrats running for office in Waukesha County would’ve been unheard of, but the longtime base of Republican politics in Wisconsin is in a period of significant and rapid political change.

While 68 of Wisconsin’s 72 counties shifted to the right from the 2020 to 2024 election, one of the four counties to shift toward Democrats was Waukesha. Waukesha is the third most populous county in Wisconsin, so a shift of a few percentage points in the county’s overall margin matters a great deal in the overall calculus for statewide elections.

In Brookfield, for the 2000 presidential election, George W. Bush won in the city by a more than 40-point margin, winning more than 70% of the vote. In 2024, Donald Trump carried the city by just over 5%, winning just over 51% of the vote. It’s not just Trump, either, as the shift has been seen in state level races like ones for governor, too. In 2014, Scott Walker won by a more than 45-point margin in the city when he was re-elected — 72.4% to Democratic candidate Mary Burke’s 26.9%. In 2018, Walker’s margin of victory slipped to about 28% (63%-36%) in his loss to Tony Evers. When Evers was re-elected in 2022, defeating Republican Tim Michels, the Democratic governor narrowed the gap to about 8%. That’s a nearly 40-point shift in just eight years. The reddest of red suburbs has significantly purpled.

“I feel like we’re close to a realignment where things happen quickly and change dramatically,” said Hallquist.

Partisan politics have seen several flashpoints in Brookfield in recent months, most recently with a Trump administration effort with the U.S. Department of Education coming to Brookfield Central High School, inviting significant pushback from parents and the community, and even some protests — even if the event itself was fairly benign, unlike some previous events in this “History Rocks!” tour, which featured Linda McMahon and Erika Kirk.

So, what would it mean if a Democrat won the race for mayor in Brookfield?

“It would be a paradigm shift,” said Hallquist. “This is the canary in the coal mine…There is a different way to lead in this county — and that’s not directly tied to partisanship, necessarily. But it is tied to challenging the way we’ve always done things in Waukesha County and understanding that to survive, all of the suburbs are going to have to adapt and change.”

Like Brookfield, the city of Waukesha is experiencing dramatic political shifts. The swings in presidential races haven’t been as pronounced as in Brookfield — Bush won by a 21-point margin in 2004; Trump by a 6-point margin in 2024 — but in gubernatorial races, shifts have been significant. In 2014, Scott Walker won the city by a 32-point margin. In 2022, Republican Tim Michels carried the city by less than 4%. And just a year ago, in the 2025 Spring Election race for Wisconsin Supreme Court, Democratic-aligned candidate Susan Crawford won outright in the city of Waukesha with more than 51% of the vote against Elon Musk-backed conservative Brad Schimel, whose home county is Waukesha, where he served as a judge and as District Attorney.

For decades, said Halvensleben, Waukesha “wasn’t just ‘lean Republican,’ this was strong Republican territory. It’s hard to change out of that mindset. That shift is still slowly happening. I think people are starting to pick up on it. It’s changing.”

The second-term alder and second-term Council President has long been active with Waukesha County Democrats and is currently the party’s chair for the 5th Congressional District.

Like the race between Hallquist and incumbent Steve Ponto in Brookfield, this mayoral race in Waukesha is formally a nonpartisan one, but this contest has an even more partisan underpinnings. That has a lot to do with Halvensleben’s opponent in the race — Scott Allen.

Allen is a Republican state representative, who has served in the Assembly for more than a decade, first elected to the position in 2014. He has the reputation of being one of the furthest-right members of a particularly far-right caucus, (occasionally challenging hard-line conservative Assembly Speaker Robin Vos from the right). Allen has sided with election deniers on a number of occasions post-2020, expressed outlandish views on reproductive rights, proposed arming teachers, and also made national news in 2019 by putting forth a list of 10 people to honor for Black History Month, most of whom were white. He seems to meld the most extreme views of the religious right and MAGA factions of Republican politics.

Halvensleben wasn’t planning to run for mayor until she heard the news that Allen would be the one running, and her phone “blew up” with people encouraging her to run against him.

“Our community deserves better than Scott Allen, and I know that I’m going to be better than him,” said Halvensleben. “If the incumbent had run again, I would not have run against Shawn Reilly. I think Shawn has done an amazing job; I have loved working with him.”

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Reilly has been the mayor of Waukesha since 2014, and had been a lifelong member of the Republican Party — up until Jan. 6, 2021. In a Facebook post that evening, he said he was “ashamed” that he was a member of the party, disavowing his allegiance, saying it could be the “end of my political career, but I have to put this out because I am so upset.” He would win re-election in 2022 with nearly 64% of the votes, despite the Republican Party of Waukesha County endorsing a late-entry challenger. Reilly would go on to endorse Kamala Harris for president in the 2024 presidential election, telling The New York Times, “I’m very afraid of the direction our country will head in if Donald Trump becomes president. I think we’ll be heading down a road of authoritarianism and fascism.”

Also in that 2024 election, Shawn Reilly’s brother, Kevin, ran against Scott Allen as a Democrat. Allen won that race, but under new maps, it was the closest contest he’d faced in a decade of Assembly races, where he mostly ran unopposed in a deep red district.

While Allen’s candidacy may have been the impetus for the 36-year-old Halvensleben’s run, she’s been getting more and more involved in politics over the last decade, following Donald Trump’s upset victory in 2016. In 2022, she took on an incumbent for an aldermanic seat and won. When re-elected following a three-year term in 2025, she became Council President. She said these weren’t wins “by a landslide” in the typically Republican city, but “I’m typically outperforming,” she said.

Working with the Waukesha County Democratic Party over the last 10 years, Halvensleben helped start a team to do canvassing for local candidates, and has seen a political shift unfold right from the street level.

“We knew there were always Democrats in Waukesha County, but we’ve had to (tell people), no, you’re not the only one,” she said. “Over the last 10 years when I’ve been knocking on doors, so many people are like, ‘Don’t tell anybody, but I’m the Democrat on the street.’ And I was like, ‘Actually, there are five of you.’”

So, what’s driving this shift? Hallquist and Halvensleben’s answers to this question have a lot in common. For one, both see a trend of people perhaps leaving for college or to start careers, only to return home to start a family. That’s part of Hallquist’s own story — he went to graduate school at the University of Southern California on a partial scholarship, and also played in a punk rock band that went on tour — and it’s something he sees in Brookfield.

“There are a lot of people who grew up here,” he said. “(Maybe they) lived somewhere else, probably for a job or educational reasons. And then oftentimes when they have children, they decide to move back. It’s their home. It’s where people grew up. This is, I think, a very Wisconsin thing.”

“People are born here; they grow up here,” said Halvensleben. “Maybe they move away for college, but they’re coming back to raise their families,” adding there’s been an “influx of millennials with their young families” in recent years, and that “their politics are different.”

There are generational aspects at play here, certainly. There’s also a growing diversity in the region with changing demographics, and for some, an acceptance and celebration of that diversity.

“We are becoming more diverse, statistically, in the city of Brookfield, and that’s a good thing,” said Hallquist. “People should not feel threatened by that…I think it’s going to be better in terms of building a more inclusive city with better outcomes and understanding,” adding that he thinks Waukesha County is “more open to things that, historically, it was not.”

But some of those old tensions are still there, and it can often manifest in the suburbs’ fraught relationship with the city of Milwaukee.

In 2014, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel published a series on political divides in the Milwaukee metro area, characterizing the region as “the most polarized part of a polarized state in a polarized nation.” The deep red suburbs and dark blue city were worlds apart.

But the extremes of that polarization have softened, with the suburbs becoming a bit bluer, and parts of the city becoming a bit redder. The region as a whole is far more purple, overall, than it was in the early to mid-2010s.

“I think, in many ways, both sides are operating on 20-year-old data and stereotypes,” said Hallquist.

It can take time for public perception to catch up to new realities. People are perhaps growing tired of these same old divisions.

“I know you’ve got some old school people who are like, ‘Don’t Milwaukee my Waukesha’ or whatever, but I think overall, people have a slightly different attitude than they used to,” said Halvensleben. “I think people are recognizing that we need to work together, that we don’t need to be at odds with each other.”

From the archives: Marquette professor Phil Rocco’s Dec. 2024 essay on Waukesha County encountering the limitations of Wisconsin’s 2023 shared revenue reform law.

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Still, there can be examples of the ugly side of these simmering tensions boiling over, like when Brookfield Alderman Kris Seals opposed an affordable housing development in the the city, saying, “If you can’t afford those units, then you live in Wauwatosa or West Allis until you can afford to move into Brookfield.”

Hallquist, who led an effort to censure Seals after those comments in 20231, sees this come up all the time on social media in response to his advocacy for affordable housing in Brookfield.

“Look at my social media posts about housing,” said Hallquist. “It’s very much that narrative, which is, ‘we don’t want those people,’ or they post things like, ‘we don’t want Milwaukee values.’” They’re just blatant dog whistles … There are ones that are just like, I think you forgot to put your klan hood on in your profile picture, I said to one commenter, because it’s just abject racism. It must be hard for those folks walking around being so afraid of everything and everyone.”

And yet, despite this, Hallquist remains an optimist.

“Here’s the positive side: That’s not the prevailing narrative,” he said. “That tide is shifting. The community’s attitudes are shifting to be more open.”

But as the campaign has unfolded, Hallquist has encountered more and more of the uglier side of social media that can also be present in the suburbs.

The incumbent who Hallquist is running to unseat is Steve Ponto, who is seeking a fifth term as mayor, at the age of 78. Ponto has not had the reputation of being an especially fiery or divisive politician — he was challenged from the right, in 2022 — but throughout this campaign, his daughter, Stephanie Ponto, who lists her role as the campaign manager, has been all over social media with a high volume of Facebook and Instagram comments about the campaign at all hours of the day and night. She’s attacked a nonprofit Hallquist is involved with (he’s an active volunteer at multiple organizations). She’s also sent numerous direct messages to Hallquist and some of his supporters, like District 1 Alder Sara Monty. Hallquist has characterized some of this behavior as “harassment” that crosses a line.

Per documents shared with The Recombobulation Area, in early January, Hallquist emailed Mayor Ponto directly, saying he had “legitimate concerns” about Stephanie Ponto’s social media presence, sharing several attachments with examples, to which the mayor replied in a separate message, “I asked Stephanie not to contact you and she agreed.” Weeks later, Hallquist sent another email, saying the “harassing behavior never stopped” and became “more extreme,” writing, “her harassment is now making me and my family feel physically unsafe.”

This week, Hallquist said in a message to The Recombobulation Area, “I’ve wanted this campaign to be about issues and vision for the City of Brookfield, but after four months of constant harassment from Steve Ponto’s daughter and campaign manager that includes: constant social media harassment, comments mentioning my children, deeply troubling false allegations sent to a fellow colleague, harassing resident supporters in private messages in the middle of the night, and now targeting my apolitical non-profit affiliation, I’ve had enough. I am quite fine with disagreement and trolling, but this behavior continues to cross a line. It’s been disappointing to see the mayor embrace this style of campaigning and harassment head-on.”

More documented examples of this behavior will soon be available at The Recombobulation Area.

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These races for mayor in Waukesha County are nonpartisan. Most of what I talked to Hallquist and Halvensleben about are issues facing local government across Wisconsin — budgeting, transparency, development, etc. The redevelopment of Brookfield Square Mall is not exactly an issue steeped in your typical Red vs. Blue partisan politics.

But as the suburbs continue to grow more and more purple, the new politics emerging can have a certain dark side. A Waukesha County native myself, I am very familiar with the duality of this landscape, and how there can be a certain ugliness lurking beneath the surface of a charming suburb like Brookfield — an ugliness our current fraught political moment tends to exacerbate.

But one thing is for sure, if either Hallquist or Halvensleben manage to pull off an upset and win one or both of these mayoral races, it will send shockwaves through the political universe in Wisconsin — and could prove to be a flashing warning sign of what’s to come for Republicans in the midterm elections this fall, and yet another sign that the suburbs are not what they used to be.

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Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. In 2024, he and the publication joined Civic Media, where he is currently a Contributing Editor. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 23 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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Angela Lang is the co-executive director of Black Leaders Organizing for Communities (BLOC) and has been a longtime contributor at The Recombobulation Area, winning several Milwaukee Press Club awards for her work.

Recently, Angela and I recorded a podcast where we each brought three headlines to discuss, going back and forth to recombobulate on a number of different topics. We liked how that went, so we’re doing it again.

For this episode, topics included:

From Angela:

• Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Milwaukee radio host posts call to ‘take out’ the Minnesota governor: ‘We will be greeted as liberators’

• Wisconsin Examiner: Legislative Black Caucus closes Black History Month by laying out policy goals

• Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: MPD officer accused of using Flock cameras to monitor dating partner resigns

From Dan:

• NBC News: James Talarico wins Texas Democratic Senate primary as GOP contest goes to a runoff

  • Also: The Democratic Primary Realignment

The Narrative Wars

The Democratic Primary Realignment

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5 days ago · 120 likes · 10 comments · Michael Lange

• Wisconsin Examiner: Republican lawmakers cut additional court support to Milwaukee

• Urban Milwaukee: Did Milwaukee Just Make Itself A Sanctuary City?

You can also watch this podcast on our YouTube Channel here:

Missed our last podcast? Watch and listen here:

Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. The publication was launched in 2019 and became part of Civic Media in 2024. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 23 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

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Part of a group who might want to subscribe together? Get a group subscription for 30% off!

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Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer and at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social.

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The first Marquette University Law School Poll of 2026 was released this week, and this survey of political opinion of Wisconsin voters included a ton of information about our state’s ever-evolving political landscape.

Charles Franklin, the longtime executive director of the poll, joined The Recombobulation Area to talk about the results.

After the poll results release program, Franklin talked with the media about the poll, saying “It used to be that all politics was local. Now, all politics are national.”

All politics now being national is a major theme of this poll, where about two-thirds of voters are disconnected from major upcoming state elections and primaries, but have strong views on national political issues.

Franklin discussed this and many of the other results from this poll, including rapid shifts in public opinion on data center developments, how the details matter in questions on immigration and mass deportation, and so much more.

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And if you missed it, my super-sized analysis of the latest poll is available here, with much available for free subscribers and the full breakdown available for paid subscribers.

Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. In 2024, he became the Political Editor of Civic Media. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 23 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

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Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer and at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social.

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The Marquette University Law School Poll is the gold standard survey for measuring public opinion in Wisconsin politics. As I’ve done for now going on nearly seven (!) years here at The Recombobulation Area, I am digging through the crosstabs and all the issue questions to bring you our unrivaled breakdown and analysis of the poll results.

New this time: Part of this breakdown will be available for to all, while part will be available only to paid subscribers. For that reason, we went even more in depth than usual — which, for us, is saying something. So, be sure to subscribe for all of our analysis on issues like data center politics, immigration issues, and a regional breakdown of the Democratic candidates running for governor.

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There will be some here that we’ve included since the beginning, and for recent polls, I’ve also started including this ranking of net favorability of the major politicians, parties and political movements included in each set of results. Here’s the latest:

With this being the first Wisconsin poll of 2026, and there’s a lot here to make sense of, so let’s recombobulate.

Chris Taylor leads the race for Wisconsin Supreme Court. But is anyone really paying attention to this election?

The next election for a 10-year term on the Wisconsin Supreme Court is now less than six weeks away. The stakes for this race are not quite what they’ve been in the last two races, where the balance of power on the court was on the line. This is not the Protasiewicz-Kelly race of 2023, nor the Crawford-Schimel(/Elon) race of 2025.

But this race is still extremely important, and would give liberals the opportunity to grow their majority to 5-2, which would cement their control of the state’s highest court through the end of the decade (at least). Chris Taylor, the former Democratic state representative and current Dane County judge, is thought to be the clear favorite in the race, with a gargantuan fundraising advantage over conservative candidate and Waukesha County judge Maria Lazar.

Here’s how the head-to-head polling breaks down:

• Maria Lazar: 12%

• Chris Taylor: 17%

• Undecided: 66%

That’s with registered voters. With likely voters, Taylor has a slightly wider advantage, at 22% to Lazar’s 15%. Taylor also has stronger favorability numbers at a net +5 to Lazar’s net minus-4. In the Madison market, where the Dane County turnout powerhouse has helped fuel liberal victories in these state Supreme Court races in recent years, Taylor leads Lazar 29% to 4%. Taylor is certainly ahead in this race.

But not many are paying all that much attention to it. The undecided numbers are quite high, and in the poll’s question on whether people have heard about the race in the April 7 election, 38% said they’ve heard nothing at all, 55% said they’ve heard a little, and only 6% said they’ve heard a lot.

During a recent podcast I joined with Pat Kreitlow of UpNorth News (watch here!), he remarked about how the 2019 race also had a liberal candidate that appeared to have a lead at around this same stage of the race, but things turned in its late stages and Brian Hagedorn pulled off a come-from-behind win over Lisa Neubauer by a razor-thin margin.

It’s a good reminder to never get too comfortable in a race like this. And while Taylor still has the clear edge here, the fact that the numbers for Lazar were not completely bleak might be a signal to the right-wing donor class that it might be worth spending in this race, after all. Poll director Charles Franklin said there would be one more poll of this race before the April election, so we’ll see how this evolves over the next month. I’d certainly expect we’ll all be seeing a whole lot more campaign ads over the next 40 days.

Making sense of the Democratic primary in the race for governor

Let’s start with the breakdown of the full field:

That’s right, State Rep. Francesca Hong of Madison holds a very slim early lead over the former and current lieutenant governor, respectively, with the overwhelming majority of voters still undecided. And like the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, folks are just not yet engaged in this race, as only 8% of voters said they’d heard “a lot” about the Aug. 11 primaries (both Republican and Democratic).

This is the first poll to include former lieutenant governor Mandela Barnes, who still has rather high name ID, far ahead of all other candidates, at 61% (current Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez is next at just 33%). His overall favorability numbers, though, are a net minus-7, and regionally, his favorability outside of Milwaukee and Madison is not great (net minus-21 in Green Bay area, net minus-23 in northern and western Wisconsin). He does fairly well with more moderate voters in this poll, though — an edge over the field in that ideological group, and a net plus-9 favorability with moderates. And yet, despite being far better known than the rest of the field of candidates, he has not walked into this race as the clear frontrunner, as some of the polls that preceded his announcement might have suggested.

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Hong’s numbers in this poll are rather intriguing. She has a lot of support from younger voters — ahead in the 30-44 age group, and way out in front among the 18-29 group (at 21%, with no other candidate above 7%) — and has strong support with the “very liberal” ideological group, at 27%, with no other candidate in double digits. A big story of these primary results is just how few people are truly paying attention to this race, and she might be doing better with a constituency that tends to be more hyper-engaged. The true test will be whether she can build on this early success.

But one thing is for sure: She is not going to be out-worked in this campaign. When she started in this race, I referred to her as the “wild card” in the primary, and noted that the former restaurant owner and chef would be working extremely hard in this campaign, and that would make the rest of the primary field have to work that much harder. Other candidates could easily draw some ideological contrast with the Democratic Socialist from Madison, but they’re also going to have to up their hustle to better compete in the rapidly evolving political environment we’re seeing in 2026.

Rodriguez polled below Hong and Barnes, but a notch above the rest of the field. Crowley may have led the field in fundraising, but is only at 3% here. Each could see jumps as more attention turns to this race, but of the two, Rodriguez is polling better. Crowley appears to have very little name ID outside of the Milwaukee area — more than 80% of Madison area voters have no opinion of the Milwaukee County Executive1.

As the non-electeds in the group, Hughes and Brennan have a long way to go to establish the name ID necessary to win a primary. Each is barely above Brett Hulsey, who is not a serious candidate in this race. Hughes’ lone standout mark is some relative strength in the “rest of state” regional group, which includes northern and western Wisconsin, where she topped the field with 8%, but that’s the part of the state least engaged with this primary, with more than 75% undecided. For Roys, my too-early assessment of the field last year had her in the top tier of potential candidates, but right now, the polling is not there for her campaign.

Perhaps the next question for this race will be: When will people start getting engaged in this race? Will attention — and perhaps more importantly, campaign spending — ramp up after the April 7 Spring Election? Because outside of Barnes, people just do not know enough about these candidates. Time for this group — a group I do find rather impressive — to get to work.

This is a bad poll for Tom Tiffany

In the Democratic primary, perhaps people have not yet made up their minds on a preferred candidate in a large field, leading to the high undecided number. But the Republican field, which only has one viable candidate, more than 60% of voters are also undecided.

That means Congressman Tom Tiffany, the only viable candidate in the Republican primary, has not yet cleared the field in the Republican primary. That’s not a great sign for him. Not even the Trump endorsement thought to cement his status in the race has really moved the needle for him. The number of undecideds being similar in a seven-candidate race and a one-candidate race is astonishing.

Tiffany’s favorability numbers are not good, either. He’s at net minus-5, with more than half of voters still not having an opinion of him. While he’s a bit more well known in the “rest of state” region, which includes northern and western Wisconsin — understandable, given the congressional district he represents — he’s not particularly well known in the state’s major media markets, and has a net-negative favorability in the Milwaukee area suburbs, not as typical for a Republican candidate (Ron Johnson, for example, is +3 in the region despite being -6 overall).

The highest number of undecideds — a whopping 73% — in the Republican primary for governor are also found in the Milwaukee area suburbs. And that’s undecided between Tiffany and fringe candidate Andy Manske, who polled at 2% overall.

Tiffany becoming the presumptive nominee is emblematic of the realignment we’re seeing in the Republican Party becoming less suburban and more exurban and rural in its base, and it will be a central question of his campaign whether or not he can capture a level of support in the typically Republican-leaning WOW counties, which have been shifting toward Democrats over the last decade, required to win statewide.

But the story here on the Republican primary as it stands is that given a choice between Tom Tiffany and remaining undecided, most voters are still remaining undecided.

Trump’s net approval nears an all-time low in Wisconsin

President Donald Trump’s net job approval just reached another new low for his second term, and has been on the decline since his return to office. It’s at a net minus-10 now, nearing his lowest mark overall in the poll across his two terms.

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If you’ve ever sat in a tree stand during hunting season — sitting quietly and waiting, your breath hanging in the cold air — you know land isn’t abstract in Wisconsin. If you’ve ever stood in a river in July, casting a line and watching the current move past your boots, you know public access isn’t theoretical. And if you’ve ever piled the kids into the car and headed to a county park just to let them run wild for a while, you’ve benefited from decisions made in Madison decades ago.

That’s why what just happened at the Capitol should make all of us pause for a second.

The Knowles-Nelson Stewardship Program, one of the most durable and broadly-supported conservation programs in Wisconsin’s history, is in real jeopardy.

This didn’t happen because the voters demanded it. Nor because the coalition behind it fell apart. This is happening because inside the Capitol, the Republican caucus can’t agree on what to do next with a program that most Wisconsinites support.

That’s… notable.

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To understand why this moment matters, it helps to remember what Knowles-Nelson actually is.

Created in 1989 and deliberately named after Republican Governor Warren Knowles and Democratic Governor Gaylord Nelson, the program was built as a bipartisan conservation compact that has helped Wisconsin protect more than 750,000 acres of land for almost 40 years. It has expanded access for hunting and fishing. It has helped build trail systems. It has protected the habitat that supports our outdoor economy.

Usually a program with that kind of track record moves through reauthorization without much drama. This time, it didn’t.

Late last week, Senate Republicans pulled a scheduled floor vote on their stewardship extension bill after it became clear they didn’t have enough votes inside their own caucus to pass it.

I don’t get to the Capitol much nowadays, but I know enough to understand that’s the tell. When leadership quietly takes something off the calendar, it usually means the vote count came up short. And outside groups are now confirming what many insiders suspected.

According to a statement from Gathering Waters, which represents 40 non-profit conservation organizations, Republicans pulled the proposal after failing to secure enough internal support. During that same floor session, State Sen. Jodi Habush Sinykin offered a simple amendment: extend the program for one year while negotiations continue.

Senate Republicans rejected it without debate.

It’s important to be clear about what did — and did not — happen here.

This was not Democrats blocking the bill on the floor. The majority party simply couldn’t unify its own members and that distinction is going to matter as the rhetoric ramps up in the coming weeks. This isn’t over, although we will be seeing the effects in different ways.

Technically, the current program as it stands runs through June 30 — but folks who have watched these fights before know the real impacts start well before any official deadline.

But here’s the part that matters most right now: the window to act has not closed.

Legislators still have time before the Senate adjourns on March 19 to bring a stewardship compromise to the floor. In other words, the current impasse is not inevitable; it’s a choice. And historically in Wisconsin, public outcry has helped to bring resolutions to issues like this.

At this stage in such a stewardship program, with reauthorization getting shaky this late in session, we will start to see a ripple effect — agencies slow their planning, local governments hesitate to line up matching funds, conservation partners grow more cautious about long-term deals. Nothing shuts off overnight. But it does start to stall.

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So how did we get here?

To understand the stalemate, it helps to walk through the timeline of what’s actually happened over the past year.

In his last budget proposal, Gov. Evers included a full reauthorization of the Stewardship Program for 10 years at $100 million annually. Republican lawmakers removed the program from the budget entirely.

Last fall, Senate Democrats returned with a scaled-back compromise: six years at $72 million per year. Republicans responded with a much smaller counterproposal of a two-year reauthorization at $28 million annually, paired with significant new limits on the program’s land acquisition authority. Conservation groups warned those limits would fundamentally weaken how the program works.

So, the gap between the parties has been clear for months. But the policy tension underneath this fight didn’t appear overnight.

For years, some Republican lawmakers — mostly from northern Wisconsin — have argued that too much land has been taken off local property tax rolls. Concern about rural tax pressure is real, and it deserves an honest conversation, but at the same time, the broader narrative that Knowles-Nelson is somehow swallowing the Northwoods doesn’t match the numbers. The math ain’t mathing, as they say.

Statewide, land conserved through the program averages about 1% of total acreage, according to a recent analysis. Even in Assembly districts most often cited in the debate, land directly tied to Knowles-Nelson generally remains under 5% — with federal land and county forests making up much larger shares of public ownership.

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Layered on top of those long-running tensions was a more recent shift that changed the political dynamics inside the Capitol.

Last year, the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled that lawmakers could no longer use passive review (essentially an anonymous objection) to quietly block individual stewardship projects. Since that ruling, support among some Republican members has cooled noticeably.

The Assembly’s response was to pass a proposal that technically extends the program, but sharply limits its land acquisition authority, thus preserving the framework of Knowles-Nelson while tightening the screws underpinning it.

Democrats and most conservation groups argue that without meaningful acquisition authority, the program stops functioning the way it was designed to.

And that’s where the stalemate sits now.

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To really understand the stakes, though, it’s worth paying attention to who is sounding the alarm.

Ducks Unlimited, one of the most respected conservation groups among hunters and outdoorsmen, warned last week that Wisconsin is on track to become the first state in recent memory to let a long-standing, widely popular conservation program lapse.

Todd Schubring, Ducks Unlimited’s Wisconsin policy chair, said the Senate’s failure to pass reauthorization “simply does not reflect the values of Wisconsinites,” even as the group thanked Republican authors Sen. Patrick Testin and Rep. Tony Kurtz for trying to move a compromise forward.

That mix of concern and appreciation tells us something important about where things stand.

There is broad public support and bipartisan bill authors. There are national conservation groups urging action. And still, the votes aren’t quite there.

Please understand: if lawmakers leave town without a deal, the damage won’t come all at once. It will come slowly. Fewer projects will move forward. Local partners will grow more cautious. By the time the deadline hits, the program could already be running on fumes.

For communities across northeast Wisconsin, this isn’t abstract policy churn. It’s access to public land and hunting traditions handed down through generations. It’s tourism dollars that keep small businesses afloat.

For many rural counties without a large tax base, stewardship funding has long helped pool statewide resources for local land and recreation projects that would otherwise be out of reach.

I’ll leave you with this: despite the growing rhetoric, there is still time to get this done before March 19 — if lawmakers are willing to come back to the table and do the work of governing.

That’s where the public comes in.

If you care about access to public land, about hunting and fishing traditions, about the outdoor economy that supports small-town Wisconsin, now is the moment to speak up — especially to Republican state senators who hold the keys to whether or not a compromise moves forward.

Wisconsin has never struggled to find common ground on conservation when the pressure is there. The question now is whether that bipartisan muscle memory is still strong enough to carry this program across the finish line. The decisions made now could determine whether the next generation climbing into that treestand or packing a picnic for the county park will inherit less access than we did.

Gaylord Nelson once warned that “The ultimate test of man’s conscience may be his willingness to sacrifice something today for future generations whose words of thanks will not be heard.”

The question now is whether or not that kind of conscience still has a home in Madison.

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Over the last 15 years, the most consequential politician in the state of Wisconsin has been Robin Vos. In an Assembly floor speech on the afternoon of Thursday, Feb. 19, he announced he will not be seeking re-election in November, retiring from the Assembly at the end of his term.

For the good people of Wisconsin, this is true cause for celebration1.

The enormity of what Vos’ pending retirement means for state politics in Wisconsin cannot be overstated. Vos is the longest-serving Assembly Speaker in state history, and his tenure has spanned two multi-term governors, a time of tremendous political upheaval in the state. Pull any thread — be it in the Walker years of trifecta Republican control, or in the Evers era of divided government — and you’ll find your way back to Robin Vos.

That is not a compliment. The era he’s presided over has been destructive and damaging for Wisconsin, and he’s been at the heart of it all. Wisconsin is unequivocally worse off for his years of leadership in the state. His calculating, power-consolidation-at-all-costs approach has held the state back time and time again. His clear disdain for his opposition, lacking even a baseline level of respect, is abhorrent. The way he’s deployed a politics of dismissive cruelty to blue cities like Milwaukee has been repulsive. His stubborn refusal to act at a moment of genuine crisis in 2020 was cataclysmic, and is one of endless examples when he’s put politics over people. He’s been a singular force against good governance throughout his time as Assembly Speaker. The way he operates is the antithesis of everything politics should be.

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Multiple sources are telling The Recombobulation Area that a group of Assembly Republicans left the Capitol mid-session today to attend a fundraiser at the Madison Club hosted by Jobs First Coalition.

This comes as Assembly Democrats are working to force votes on two bills that have been blocked from a vote by Assembly Speaker Robin Vos — postpartum Medicaid expansion and Gail’s Law, a measure on breast cancer screenings.

A photo shared with The Recombobulation Area shows Robin Vos and Majority Leader Tyler August at the Madison Club talking to reporters. The Assembly has been in recess for a partisan caucus since mid-afternoon.

Greta Neubauer, the Assembly Democratic leader, said today that Democrats have “drafted amendments to every single bill on the calendar, and we are going to stop business in the legislature until we pass postpartum expansion of Medicaid and Gail’s Law.”

Each of these bills has passed the State Senate with overwhelming bipartisan support, but have been blocked from a vote during an Assembly floor session by Assembly Speaker Robin Vos.

Jobs First Coalition is a Brookfield-based 501(c)(4) nonprofit organization that has long backed Republicans. A 2022 release by the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign says the conservative group spent more than $2.6 million since 2010, mostly supporting legislators.

According to Jobs First Coalition’s tax filing for the year 2024, Michelle Litjens Vos is the person who “possesses the organization’s books and records.” Litjens Vos is a former Republican state representative and is Robin Vos’ wife. The filing also says Litjens Vos worked in fundraising and event planning for the organization, and raised more than $3.3 million, and was paid about $70,000.

This story is developing.

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Angela Lang is the co-executive director of Black Leaders Organizing for Communities (BLOC) and has been a longtime contributor at The Recombobulation Area, winning several Milwaukee Press Club awards for her work.

Angela and I haven’t had the chance to catch up in a while, so we got together for this podcast today to talk about a whole lot of things. We each brought three headlines or topics to talk about, so we could cover a lot of ground.

Topics discussed include:

• Tony Evers’ final State of the State address, and the governor’s legacy

  • See: Wisconsin Watch: ‘As Tony Evers delivers his final State of the State, he remains crosswise with the GOP Legislature’

• The crisis around grocery stores closing in predominantly Black neighborhoods in Milwaukee (and whether “food apartheid” is the right way to describe this ongoing problem)

  • See: MJS: ‘Milwaukee alders introduce resolution declaring food apartheid a public health emergency’

• The Republican-controlled state legislature advancing proposed amendments to the state constitution that are anti-DEI, and what those implications might mean

• The organizing win behind the Milwaukee Police Department’s decision to ban facial recognition software

• Democratic candidate for governor talking about ICE and immigration

  • See: MJS: ‘Dem governor candidate Rodriguez says she ‘misspoke’ about aiding ICE’

Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. In 2024, he became the Political Editor of Civic Media. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 23 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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is the former chairman of the Brown County Republican Party, a party he has now left. In 2024, he was part of Wisconsin Republicans for Harris-Walz. He also hosts the radio show and podcast, “Rational Revolution,” which airs on Saturday and Sunday on the Civic Media network.

I always enjoy talking politics with Mark, who has a unique perspective and always has a lot to say. On this latest episode, we talked about looking ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, the race for governor (and the candidate forum I hosted in January), and whether or not Wisconsin is really a purple state.

We also talked about how this is Tony Evers’ last year as governor. He’ll be giving his final State of the State Address this week (Tuesday, Feb. 17, 7 p.m.). And in the state legislature, the Assembly and Senate are racing to their imaginary deadline to complete their session before going off to campaign for nine months (we’ve, uh, discussed this broken dynamic before). With all of that happening, is this the end of a certain era in Wisconsin state politics?

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You can watch the full conversation, which features a final segment with Becker’s take on the Super Bowl halftime show, in the video here, or listen in the official podcast feed embedded below.

Becker also recently wrote this column here at The Recombobulation Area, about Alex Pretti, fellow alum of the Green Bay Boys Choir.

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One more thing: Last Friday, I joined my friend Greg Bach on the final episode of “Civic Media Mid-Mornings,” which has been broadcasting in the “Matenaer On Air” 9-11 a.m. timeslot since Jane’s retirement in December. But don’t worry, Greg will soon be back on the airwaves, and you’ll hear more about what’s in store in the coming days.

Listen to that episode with yours truly here, or watch the video below, at about the midway point.

“Rational Revolution” video edited by Dominic Lee.

Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. In 2024, he became the Political Editor of Civic Media. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 23 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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It’s a foundation of our country and what the United States is supposed to stand for on the global stage: freedom of speech, to express our opinions without fear of persecution by the government.

Yet in Wisconsin, legislators are attempting to pass a raft of bills that would directly undermine that foundational right. While it’s likely Gov. Evers will veto them should they come across his desk while still in office, the threat posed by the bills is very real. Depending on who’s elected to replace Evers this fall, it’s entirely likely the legislation will come back around. And in this case, it’s not a guarantee that simply electing any Democrat will ensure they’re vetoed again.

The bills in question are AB 446/SB 445 and AB 672/SB 650. They’re all part of the recent push to stifle and even outright punish speech and activism aimed at opposing the genocide in Gaza. However, their impact would be much further reaching than even that.

Let’s start with AB 446/SB 445, which aim to adopt a definition of antisemitism, to be applied to Wisconsin law and policy, as offered by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA). I’ll let the ACLU of Wisconsin explain why this is a bad idea:

“Antisemitic discrimination is abhorrent; it’s destructive to both individuals and communities. The IHRA definition and its non-exhaustive list of examples, however, are overbroad by equating protected speech with unprotected discrimination. Criticism of the Israeli government and its policies is political speech, squarely protected by the First Amendment.”

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Kenneth Stern, one of the original authors of the IHRA’s working definition and a self-proclaimed Zionist, has since come out strongly against its use as the basis of any laws or policies. As he noted in an opinion piece from 2019 when Trump issued an executive order to rely on the definition related to free speech on college campuses, such use amounts to a “weaponization” in service of “suppressing political speech.”

Even still, Republicans and some Democrats in Wisconsin have seen fit to push its adoption here. Now, couple that with the introduction of AB 672/SB 650. That bill purports to create a “penalty enhancer for crimes committed by a person acting as an agent of a foreign government or terrorist organization with the intent to silence or punish persons for their political view, criminalizing the enforcement of foreign laws without federal or state approval.”

Sounds reasonable enough on its face, right? Look more closely, however, and it quickly becomes clear that this bill, if passed into law, would open a Pandora’s box of persecution against anyone deemed politically undesirable by the people currently in power.

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Wisconsin Jewish Voices for Peace warned the legislation would “dangerously curtail freedom of speech and increase options for government surveillance of individuals in Wisconsin,” especially since the language of the bill is extremely broad and terms like “terrorist organization” are not precisely defined. Given that we’ve already seen government officials slapping the “terrorist” label on everyone from peaceful legal observers to student protesters to anyone who calls themself “antifa” (i.e., simply antifascist), the move to adopt an official law to further expand that power should chill us to the bone.

Both sets of bills have already passed out of their respective committees and are listed as “available for scheduling,” meaning they could come up before the Assembly and Senate at any time. It’s crucial that more people speak out against their passage and tell lawmakers, including candidates from both parties currently vying for office, why they’re so dangerous. Especially in this era of accelerating attacks on privacy, speech, and association, we all need to be educated and loud in our opposition to any proposed laws that are so scorchingly antithetical to the rights and freedoms we hold dear.

Read more from Emily Mills at The Recombobulation Area:

Emily Mills is a longtime freelance writer/reporter based in Madison. They previously served as Editor of Our Lives, Wisconsin’s only LGBTQ+ media outlet, and as an opinion columnist in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. You can currently find Emily’s work at tonemadison.com and at their own newsletter, Grist From the Mills.

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So, we have something a little different for you today. There is, of course, a ton happening in the political universe in Milwaukee and Wisconsin and beyond, but as anyone who follows me on social media knows, I am a huge, huge Milwaukee Bucks fan. And we just endured a roller coaster of a week as Bucks fans, with Giannis Antetokounmpo being in trade rumors all the way leading up to the NBA trade deadline. But after all that, Giannis is still a member of the Milwaukee Bucks.

Here to recombobulate with us after a discombobulating week is Milwaukee sports radio legend Bart Winkler.

Bart hosts the “Into the Winklerverse” podcast and you can find the latest episode here.

Oh, and thank you, Giannis. Please never leave us.

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Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. In 2024, he became the Political Editor of Civic Media. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 23 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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The NBA trade deadline has come and passed, and Giannis Antetkounmpo remains a Milwaukee Buck, so over here at Recombobulation Area HQ, we’re getting ready to pop some celebratory champagne.

But while we’re here feeling some good vibes (for once, in 2026), I wanted to let you know about a new thing we’re getting up and running here on Substack: It’s our exclusive Recombobulation Area subscriber group chat!

This is going to be available to all of our paid subscribers to come together and recombobulate in these discombobulating times.

We know that the social media landscape is growing increasingly fragmented, and while we’re working harder to reach folks on a variety of different platforms — Threads! Bluesky! more Instagram and Facebook1! more to come (we hope)! — we want you to know you’ll always have a place to share thoughts here, as part of this wonderful little community we’ve built together.

So, if you have not yet, you should get the Substack app…

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Available for iOS and Android

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upgrade to become a paid subscriber …

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… and join us in the group chat. We’re going to have some fun with this — and, of course, discuss the big issues facing Milwaukee and Wisconsin, too.

Let’s recombobulate.

One more thing: Here’s the “How to get started” information from Substack:

1. Get the Substack app by clicking this link or the button below. New chat threads won’t be sent sent via email, so turn on push notifications so you don’t miss conversation as it happens. You can also access chat on the web.

Get app

2. Open the app and tap the Chat icon. It looks like two bubbles in the bottom bar, and you’ll see a row for my chat inside.

3. That’s it! Jump into my thread to say hi, and if you have any issues, check out Substack’s FAQ.

Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. In 2024, he became the Political Editor of Civic Media. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 23 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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The murder of Alex Pretti by federal agents on the streets of Minneapolis is an American tragedy. It has rightfully prompted so many across the political spectrum to speak out against the horrific shooting, of ICE and Border Patrol’s larger immigration crackdowns under Trump, and about what they’ve been doing in Minneapolis as part of “Operation Metro Surge.” Coming just weeks after the murder of Renee Good, it feels as if the situation in Minneapolis is building toward a breaking point — for the Twin Cities and for the nation.

Even Trump himself has seemed to tacitly acknowledge this, effectively firing Border Patrol chief Greg Bovino, moving for some level of new leadership to oversee the operation in Minneapolis with Tom Homan and a pledged “draw down” of forces, and not doubling down (for once) on the absurd and clearly false comments from members of the administration who referred to the deceased Pretti as a “domestic terrorist.” A Republican candidate for Minnesota governor dropping out of the gubernatorial race and leaving the GOP saying he “cannot support the national Republicans’ stated retribution on the citizens of our state” seemed like a crystalizing moment — that this had gone way too far.

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Not that anything about this “Operation” in Minneapolis seems to be actually changing, though. The three steps forward, one step back approach might move the Overton Window, but there are still armed federal agents patrolling the city and violating “more court orders in January 2026 than some federal agencies have violated in their entire existence,” Minnesota Chief Judge Patrick Schiltz wrote in an order this week, and still have instances like this instance of ICE targeting regular citizens being reported on a near-daily basis. They are detaining children, including 5-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos, who is being held in Texas and has been “very depressed” and hasn’t been eating well. There have been endless horrors reported by the Minneapolis Star Tribune, MPR News, and so many other outlets. This is beyond the pale.

But this is clearly not the first, and what happened in Chicago over the summer with “Operation Midway Blitz” was a warning — one we did not heed to the degree we all should have. There was a midnight raid of an apartment building where agents rappelled from a helicopter — a raid that resulted in no charges of any Tren de Aragua gang members they were purportedly after. A woman was shot five times by Border Patrol. They detained a day care worker and went after Girls Scouts. This was a five-alarm fire and any “Operation”-style enforcement should have stopped right then and there. And as much coverage as we’ve seen of events transpiring in Minneapolis, as Gov. Tim Walz put it in a harrowing interview with The Atlantic, “it’s worse than you think.”

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While there are no indications that any large-scale ICE or CBP action is imminent in Milwaukee or Wisconsin — despite what some wildly irresponsible rumors may have suggested — we also can’t pretend that such an “Operation” could never arrive here. Gov. Tony Evers has said he’s “absolutely” preparing for the potential of increased ICE presence in Wisconsin, Congressman Mark Pocan warned that ICE activity could soon spike in the state, and Mayor Cavalier Johnson said the city needs to be prepared for possible “eventuality” of ICE in Milwaukee, despite “no solid indication" ICE is about to surge into the city, Jeff Fleming, spokesman for Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson, told the Journal Sentinel.

Let’s be clear: This should not happen. I write about policy often here at The Recombobulation Area, and I could not be more vehemently opposed to any policy decision than I am on these “Operations.” So much of the last decade of Trumpism has been building to this and it is beyond despicable. This is abhorrent. This is un-American. There should never be an “Operation” in Wisconsin like what we saw in Chicago and what we’re seeing in Minneapolis — not in Milwaukee, not in Madison, not anywhere in this state.

Not only should this not happen here, this should not be happening anywhere. No city should have to endure this. Any leader behind these efforts should step down — DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller, anyone and everyone involved in leading these “Operation” campaigns. Every action should be investigated; every crime committed by ICE and CBP agents should be prosecuted. Pull this out by the root and salt the earth it grew from. This is a full-scale affront to everything good this country is supposed to stand for. It has to end here and it has to end now.

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Even if you are in favor of tougher immigration enforcement, you cannot seriously think these kinds of city-enveloping operations are the best way to accomplish that goal. This is instilling fear and panic and chaos in cities, and by and large, these operations are not actually targeting violent criminals; there’s little evidence suggesting they are targeting the “worst of the worst,” as Trump often puts it. And beyond the violations of rights and the constitution that are paramount here, there are indications that the economic fallout of this is going to be massively problematic. This is as misguided as it is unsustainable, and the very fabric of this country will be torn apart if these Operations are to continue.

The Trump administration is still advancing a brutal, Constitution-trampling campaign of mass deportation by way of an unaccountable, reckless, and now-deadly paramilitary force. “Operation Metro Surge” has been beyond unacceptable, and every day it continues is a stain on our nation. Every American of sound conscience should stand up against it and anyone in a position of power to do so should demand it come to an immediate end.

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As devastating and un-American as this whole charade has been and continues to be, it’s been encouraging to see so many across Wisconsin, in communities large and small, take to the streets and stand with our neighbors in Minnesota. The people Minneapolis standing up to ICE and the Trump administration in this moment are nothing short of heroic. The courage and bravery that’s been on display has been a true inspiration. These men and women are true patriots, and they have demonstrated to this nation what real resistance and community solidarity can look like.

My genuine hope is that there are better days ahead for the good people of the Twin Cities, and that this “draw down” is the first step toward a full removal of this occupation “Operation.”

The encounters that led to the murders of Alex Pretti and Renee Good should never happen again. These need to be investigated on an individual level to the fullest extent of the law. And as so many pore over these frame-by-frame analyses of these gut-wrenching and unconscionable incidents, we can’t lose sight of the bigger picture — that this should never be happening in the first place.

End the “Operation.” End them everywhere. Now and forever.

Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. In 2024, he became the Political Editor of Civic Media. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 23 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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Trying to wrap my mind around what happened on a Minneapolis street Saturday, where an innocent man was killed in an act of brutal violence, is difficult enough. But realizing that man was someone I once knew is something else entirely. It is beyond comprehension.

Even speaking publicly about this is a struggle. I won’t pretend that I was Alex Pretti’s best friend. That familiar Catholic guilt sits in the background, reminding me that so many people knew him far better than I did, and that their grief is deeper than mine.

But I also know this: I am a proud alumnus of the Green Bay Boy Choir, where I sang for years alongside dozens of others, including Alex. To understand what this loss means, you have to understand how close-knit that community was.

This was before constant texting and social media. We spent hours every week rehearsing together at St. Norbert Abbey. We laughed, played dumb jokes, and made the kind of foundational memories that stay with you for life. Our parents all knew one another. We toured together and sang in some of the most iconic venues in the world. Alex was part of the choir when it performed in the British Isles.

We weren’t just a group. We were a family. And even though it has been more than two decades since I last spoke with Alex, I know that if I ran into him today, we would hug, sit down, and talk like no time had passed at all. That is true for so many of us who shared that experience.

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So when something so senseless and horrific happens to one of our own, it feels — to borrow a line from Star Wars — like a disturbance in the Force.

What I remember most about Alex is how universally liked he was. He had a sharp sense of humor, but he was also kind. He looked out for the younger kids in the choir. He made people feel safe. He made people feel seen.

It is no surprise that he carried that into adulthood, becoming a nurse who cared for our nation’s veterans. And it is tragically fitting that his final act was one of courage and selflessness. Because Alex died trying to help someone.

Find the latest episode of Civic Media’s “Rational Revolution” here.

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I recognize that, because of my civic involvement, the things I say sometimes travel farther than I want them to. After I made a brief post online, every local TV station reached out asking for a statement. I did not want to speak. I have been trying hard not to make this about me, because it isn’t. It is about Alex.

But I also know what is coming. The media will do what it always does: “Tune in as we hear from both sides.”

Both sides. There are no “both sides” to this. Alex Pretti was trying to help a woman who was violently shoved to the ground by ICE agents. He was beaten. He was disarmed of a gun he was legally permitted to carry. And he was executed. There is no other side to that.

What makes this even more grotesque is watching powerful people in this country twist his story into something unrecognizable. Alex dedicated his life to caring for veterans, the very people the GOP claims to champion. And yet, almost immediately, some began smearing him as an “assassin.” That accusation would be laughable if it weren’t so sickening.

Once again, Trumpism demands that people ignore what they can plainly see and instead believe whatever narrative they are told. It is Orwellian. It is “1984” brought to life.

These are the same people who claim to worship the Second Amendment, yet their first question is: Why did he have a gun at a protest?

If you truly believe in that right, then the answer should not matter. Alex was legally allowed to carry. He did not brandish it. He did not threaten anyone. He was attacked, disarmed, and killed.

For years, these people bragged about standing up to tyranny. But it turns out they were not opposed to authoritarianism at all. They were simply waiting until they were the ones holding power. Every day, they sink further into the very tyranny they claimed to fear.

Alex Pretti’s death now sits on a growing mountain of grief and terror created by this administration’s cruelty. We were told they would deport “the worst of the worst.”

They lied. Instead, they are arresting teachers, children, veterans, mothers, and fathers. They are ripping apart communities. They are destroying workplaces. And now, they are killing innocent Americans in the street.

This must be stopped. We cannot let Alex’s death be in vain. Speak up. Stand up. Tell the truth. Do not be silent. This ends only when we decide that enough is enough.

And my God, it is enough.

Mark Becker is a small business owner, former Brown County Supervisor, and former Chairman of the Brown County Republican Party. His work has been featured in numerous publications, most notably for his article in The Bulwark where he discloses Ron Johnson personally admitted won the election, but couldn’t risk “political suicide.” Mark now hosts the Rational Revolution, a weekend feature program on Civic Media.

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On Thursday in Milwaukee, seven Democratic candidates running for governor shared the stage together for the first time.

The event was hosted by Main Street Action at The Cooperage. The Recombobulation Area’s Dan Shafer moderated the forum, and Civic Media brought you the exclusive live-stream.

Candidates included Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, State Rep. Francesca Hong, State Sen. Kelda Roys, former WEDC CEO Missy Hughes, former DOA Secretary Joel Brennan, and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.

The event began with an introduction by Richard Trent, executive director of Main Street Alliance / Main Street action, who discussed the importance of small business owners and the Main Street economy.

“(Small business owners) are powerful vectors for change,” he said. “With 33 million small businesses across the country, two-thirds of new job creation, small business really is the engine of the economy. But, if I can be real — because my job is to talk to small business owners all day — small business owners are hurting right now…They’re hurting because for the last year, billionaires have essentially been setting economic policy for working families.”

These remarks set the stage for the economic and small business focus of the evening. Six panelists and members of Main Street Action each asked a question to the panel of candidates. Topics for these questions included: health care, child care, paid family and medical leave, capital access, tax policy, and utility costs. We then asked questions submitted by audience members, which addressed education, taxing the wealthy, and the recent ICE operations in Minneapolis.

You can watch the full video of the Main Street Governor Candidate Forum here.

Find more on the forum here:

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Moments before candidates took the stage at The Cooperage in Milwaukee for the first gubernatorial campaign event of 2026, the seven candidates set to take the stage together for Main Street Action’s candidate forum, assembled near the stairway next to the stage. Being the event moderator, I was there to go over a few ground rules on how the soon-to-begin forum would be conducted. As I spoke with the group and took a quick scan of the individuals there with me, I thought about this being the first time these seven candidates would share the stage together for a campaign forum. Part of me wondered how these individuals would fare on stage under the lights in a packed house event like this, with more than 400 people filling The Cooperage with standing-room-only seating. Mostly, though, I had few concerns, and was very much looking forward to hearing what this group of people would have to say.

Because I truly believe this is a terrific group of Democratic candidates running for governor. Each of them are qualified, compelling individuals with something to say about the future of this great state. The people of Wisconsin are lucky to have this group of candidates — Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, State Rep. Francesca Hong, State Sen. Kelda Roys, former WEDC Director Missy Hughes, former DOA Secretary Joel Brennan, and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes — competing for their votes.

I have said this over and over, dating back to last summer when I called on Gov. Evers’ to not seek re-election and pass the torch to the next generation: Democrats in Wisconsin have a strong bench. There are folks with executive experience, legislative experience, leadership qualities, and a vision for the future of the state. Some of the typical bedwetters on the left might be worried about a big primary. I do not. With so much uncertainty in the direction of the Democratic Party, I think having a robust discussion about where the state is headed with seven more-than-qualified candidates is exactly what we need right now.

Over the last two weeks, the campaign has reached two significant milestones. One was the forum itself — and sure, we can call this the unofficial start of the 2026 campaign season; we’ll take it. You can watch the full event exclusively at the Civic Media YouTube Channel, embedded here.

Candidates fielded questions from small business owners on many of the kitchen table, pocketbook issues that Democrats should be prioritizing in 2026 campaigns, issues like health care, child care, fair tax policy, small business growth, and the Main Street economy. Because let’s not forget, Wisconsin is a small business state. More than 99% of businesses here in the state are small businesses. Nearly half of all employees in Wisconsin are working at a small business, and that’s a higher rate than most U.S. states. It’s a very good thing that they are the types of issues that these candidates are talking about to kick off the 2026 campaign.

I’d encourage you to take the time to listen to these responses — and over at , we’ve made it simple to navigate to each individual question and answer (find that here) — because the details matter. Yes, these are all Democrats, so there’s a lot they’re going to agree on, but the subtle differences matter. As Erik Gunn of Wisconsin Examiner noted in his coverage of the forum, “Their answers showed only occasional differences on matters of policy. The greater contrasts were in style, tone, vocabulary and presentation.” That matters, too. There’s a lot still for all of us to process from this forum. Hopefully, it serves as an important baseline for many more conversations to come.

Of course, there’s far more going on under the surface in these campaigns, and the other significant milestone for the race came the week prior with the release of candidates’ fundraising reports, which covered July 1 to Dec. 31 of 2025.

Here’s how the tally broke down:

Among the top candidates running in the Democratic primary, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley led the field with $800,000 raised, followed by Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez at $650,000.

Some caveats apply here, as Mandela Barnes and Joel Brennan did not launch their respective campaigns until December, while Rodriguez launched in July, and campaigns for Kelda Roys, Francesca Hong, Missy Hughes, and Crowley each launched in September.

Per JR Ross of WisPolitics, about $141,000 of what Crowley raised was from his Milwaukee County Executive campaign. Ross also notes that Hong had the most individual donations of anyone in the field, at about 7,400.

Overall, though, what this level of fundraising for each of these candidates shows is that every one is now a viable campaign. There were no flops in the bunch. This is going to be a competitive primary, and these numbers and the overall campaign dynamics suggest this is going to be competitive all the way until the Aug. 11 primary date.

If last week’s fundraising suggested there are seven viable Democratic candidates seeking to be Wisconsin’s next governor, this week’s forum confirmed it. This is a deep bench. This is a strong group. And any of them could very well become Wisconsin’s next governor.

I was thrilled to be a part of this conversation as its moderator, and I am looking forward to more robust conversations about the future of the state from this fascinating group of seven candidates.

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PLUS: Dan Shafer joined of Motherhood for Good and Kristin Brey, co-host of 620 WTMJ’s “Point Taken” on their Thursday night live-stream, to talk about the candidate forum and more.

Find more media coverage of the event here:

• Here’s all the press (so far):

  • Main Street Action hosts De­mo­c­ratic gu­ber­na­torial candidate forum (Spectrum News)

  • Wisconsin governor’s race; Democratic candidates debate key issues (Fox 6)

  • Dem guv candidates condemn ICE following Minnesota shooting (WisPolitics)

  • 7 Democrats make their pitch at governor candidate forum. 6 takeaways (USA Today)

  • At forum for Democrats running for governor, style and tone differ more sharply than policy (Wisconsin Examiner)

  • Seven Democratic gubernatorial hopefuls try to separate from the pack at first candidate forum (CBS 58)

  • Democratic candidates for Wisconsin governor look to stand out at first major forum (WPR)

  • Democratic gubernatorial candidates discuss small business, I.C.E. activity at Milwaukee forum (620 WTMJ)

  • And they’re off: 7 Democratic candidates for WI governor hold first forum (UpNorth News)

Dan Shafer is a journalist from Milwaukee who writes and publishes The Recombobulation Area. In 2024, he became the Political Editor of Civic Media. He’s written for The New York Times, The Daily Beast, Heartland Signal, Belt Magazine, WisPolitics, and Milwaukee Record. He previously worked at Seattle Magazine, Seattle Business Magazine, the Milwaukee Business Journal, Milwaukee Magazine, and BizTimes Milwaukee. He’s won 23 Milwaukee Press Club Excellence in Journalism Awards. He’s on Twitter at @DanRShafer.

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The first major public event of the 2026 gubernatorial campaign is happening tonight in Milwaukee, and you can watch it live exclusively on the Civic Media YouTube Channel.

The live-stream will be here, from 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m.

At the conclusion of the event, the full video will be immediately available at the same YouTube link.

If you have not yet registered to attend, the event is now at capacity, so registration is now closed. But you can stay warm at home and watch the candidate forum here!

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The event moderator will be Dan Shafer, founder of The Recombobulation Area and political editor at Civic Media. This will be the first opportunity for these seven candidates to share the stage, so you won’t want to miss it.

And those candidates are: Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, State Rep. Francesca Hong, State Sen. Kelda Roys, former WEDC Director Missy Hughes, former DOA Secretary Joel Brennan, and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.

This candidate forum will feature questions from a panel of small business owners and members of Main Street Action, and then will take questions submitted by members of the audience. Topics for the first portion will include health care, child care, paid family and medical leave, capital access, tax policy, and public education.

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For those who might be unfamiliar with the organization hosting this event: Main Street Action elevates trusted small business owners — who live the impact of rising costs every day — to cut through lobbyist spin, hold lawmakers accountable, and push for policies that make life affordable for working families.

A few other things to know, from our friends at Main Street Action:

• There is parking next to the venue and ample street parking outside. We are expecting a very large turnout for this event so please arrive early if you want a good parking space (and seat). Doors will open at roughly 5 p.m., and the event will start promptly at 6 p.m.

• The entrance to the Cooperage is on the river-side of the building, to the right. If you’re coming from the parking lot or street parking, you’ll walk past the Boone & Crockett entrance to get to the Cooperage entrance.

• There will be a cash bar available (but please behave yourselves!).

• We will be kicking off with a panel of small business owners asking questions of the candidates, and then our emcee will be asking questions submitted from members of the audience. We will collect your questions as you arrive to ensure the program moves along efficiently and we can get as many questions asked of the candidates as possible.

• Please expect you’ll be on video. There will be several videographers on site, reporters and a livestream via Civic Media.

• After the program ends, you’ll need to leave the Cooperage, but there will be an opportunity to mingle with other attendees next door at the on-site bar Boone & Crockett!

We’re looking forward to a terrific conversation about the future of the great state of Wisconsin. We hope you’ll tune in.

Subscribe to The Recombobulation newsletter here and follow us on Facebook and Instagram at @ therecombobulationarea.

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With everything else happening around the world, you may have missed a major headline here in Wisconsin — one that’s already turning into a political football. The Legislative Fiscal Bureau now projects the state will end the 2025–27 biennium with a $2.37 billion general fund balance. That’s $1.53 billion more than expected when the budget passed. And, as usual, both parties are already racing to take credit.

But here’s what most Wisconsinites will hear when they see that number: Give our money back.

And I get it. For most families, the state’s “general fund balance” isn’t something you see. What you see is the envelope on the kitchen table — an escrow notice, the property tax bill, the referendum flyer from your child’s school, the grocery receipt making you do a double take. You see it in the quiet math you do in your head: what can wait, what can’t, what gets cut this month.

When people live with the stress of all of those things, a surplus doesn’t feel like “good news.” It feels like proof the system is taking more than it should, and still not delivering stability where it matters.

The problem is that “giving it back” can turn into a shell game if we’re not careful. If lawmakers use this moment for short-term tax cuts while refusing to fix the underlying pressures driving costs — as they’ve done for years — we’ll be right back here a year from now. People will still be paying more. Communities will still be scrambling. Politicians will still be blaming someone else.

We’ve got a historic surplus. Let’s use it to lower costs now and stop creating bigger bills later.

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There’s a part that Madison doesn’t like to say out loud: Wisconsin’s budget can look “healthy” while people feel stressed because the burden doesn’t show up as a state line item a lot of the time. Sometimes, it shows up in your kid’s classroom. Or, it shows up when your city or township can’t keep staff, keep programs open, keep emergency services, or maintain buildings and roads without begging voters for funding every spring.

The loudest voices who too often are preaching “discipline” and “fiscal responsibility” are often the same ones who created a system where local property taxpayers are forced to pick up the tab for basic public services. School districts aren’t going from referendum to referendum because they’re reckless, they’re doing it because costs and needs continue to rise and the state keeps acting like inflation shouldn’t apply to classrooms. That’s been the reality for more than 15 years (with no end in sight.)

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Last week, Republican state Rep. Mark Born and state Sen. Howard Marklein, the co-chairs of the powerful budget-writing Joint Committee on Finance, credited GOP “fiscal discipline,” while warning Wisconsinites not to commit to “ongoing spending using one-time money.” Yes, caution matters. But what they’re really saying is: don’t use new revenue to fix the systems that are breaking.

If Wisconsin truly has room to breathe, then we have to answer the obvious questions: why are our schools still scraping by? Why are working parents still drowning in childcare costs? Why are communities unable to make ends meet? A surplus doesn’t automatically mean Wisconsin is thriving. It can also mean Madison is stockpiling flexibility while families absorb the pain.

And instead of treating this surplus as a chance to stabilize the system, Republicans are already signaling they want to reopen old political fights — including repealing Gov. Tony Evers’ “400-year veto,” a move that gave school districts more flexibility to keep up with inflation and avoid constant crisis budgeting. That push isn’t coming from nowhere. It’s coming from the same top-down leadership that has controlled the Legislature for years: Assembly Speaker Robin Vos and Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu.

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This particular fight isn’t really about a sneaky veto. It’s about whether local communities can respond to real-world costs or whether Republican leadership keeps districts on a short financial leash and calls it “responsible.”

It’s important to note as well that Wisconsinites are already bracing for uncertainty from Washington, D.C., as they look toward higher costs for healthcare and groceries, dismantled safety nets, and federal programs and grants that families rely on suddenly disappearing. As the federal government abdicates its duty, states either step up and stabilize people’s lives…or they shove costs down the ladder and tell local taxpayers to figure it out.

I fear Wisconsin will be the latter.

People deserve relief. But “give it back” has to mean lowering costs in a way that doesn’t break our schools, weaken our communities, and raise property taxes again next year. This leaves us all worse off and costs us all more in the long run.

Wisconsin families deserve real relief this time, not the kind Republicans campaign on and then quietly design to disappear a year later. If lawmakers are serious about lowering costs, they ought to stop treating public schools and local services like bargaining chips and start to build a system that doesn’t force our communities into constant crisis.

There is a way to reduce the pressure on property taxpayers and invest in what keeps Wisconsin towns and cities strong: schools that work, childcare families can afford, and the basic stability that makes communities safer and healthier.

It’s not “big government.” It’s just good governing. Money in Madison doesn’t mean a thing if it never makes it back to Main Street.

Tune in on Wednesday, Jan. 21, to watch the Main Street Governor Candidate Forum on the Civic Media YouTube Channel.

Read more from at The Recombobulation Area:

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In just a few days time, top Democratic candidates for governor will be coming together in Milwaukee for a candidate forum — the first of 2026.

Main Street Action is hosting the event at The Cooperage in Milwaukee (822 S. Water St., Milwaukee, WI 53204) on Wednesday, Jan. 21, from 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. It will feature seven candidates, including State Rep. Francesca Hong, State Sen. Kelda Roys, former WEDC Director Missy Hughes, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, former DOA Secretary Joel Brennan and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.

Along with The Recombobulation Area’s Dan Shafer emcee-ing the event, Civic Media will be exclusively live-streaming the candidate forum.

That’s right, Civic Media will be live-streaming the candidate forum. You will be able to watch the full event on the Civic Media YouTube channel.

Subscribe here so you don’t miss it.

A few other things to know, from our friends at Main Street Action:

• There is parking next to the venue and ample street parking outside. We are expecting a very large turnout for this event so please arrive early if you want a good parking space (and seat). We will start promptly at 6 p.m.

• The entrance to the Cooperage is on the river-side of the building, to the right. If you’re coming from the parking lot or street parking, you’ll walk past the Boone & Crockett entrance to get to the Cooperage entrance.

• There will be a cash bar available (but please behave yourselves!).

• We will be kicking off with a panel of small business owners asking questions of the candidates, and then our emcee will be asking questions submitted from members of the audience. We will collect your questions as you arrive to ensure the program moves along efficiently and we can get as many questions asked of the candidates as possible.

• Please expect you’ll be on video. There will be several videographers on site, reporters and a livestream via Civic Media.

• After the program ends, you’ll need to leave the Cooperage, but there will be an opportunity to mingle with other attendees next door at the on-site bar Boone & Crockett!

Any other questions? Let us know in the comments and we’ll be happy to answer before the event on Wednesday.

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One more thing: Be sure to subscribe to for updates and links as the date approaches next week.

Civic Media Today

Civic Media is a pro-democracy media organization based in Wisconsin. This is Civic Media Today, our new daily newsletter that connects to everything across the Civic Media network.

Looking forward to an exciting discussion!

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Follow Dan Shafer on Twitter at @DanRShafer and at BlueSky at @danshafer.bsky.social.